Michigan @ Minnesota, Saturday, 10/31, 7pm EDT, ESPN

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, we're seven games in to the season. There has been at least one attempt on the deep ball into the middle zone in each game, some games have seen 2 of these.

I can't recall exactly but I'd say all of them were thrown to receivers that had a step on the defender who was in man with NO SAFETY BACK-UP bookending the intended target.

I can remember NONE of them were completed. NONE....... and in M's two losses it is highly probably that both of them would have been wins if they are completed.

So, I'm not holding my breath or hoping the Roulette Ball is going to drop. I've seen enough to know Rudock, for whatever reasons, is not able to make that throw, critical to Harbaughffense, under game circumstances. I'm also pretty sure there were one or two of those deep throws that if the receiver had done his job, the throws would have been completions. That just complicates probabilities for that play to be made and pushes the number of events that have to occur before the desired outcome (a catch) occurs.

Let's do the math. There are 5 games left; maybe 10 opportunities and say 14 have already occurred. P sub24 = (1/2) to the 24th power = 0.007809162139892578 (this probability is calculated from a formula for coin flips for which I have a pre-calculated table).

BTW in this calculation you have to get to 10000 events before completing a pass is almost a sure thing (0.4988)

IOW, it ain't likely to happen from both a theoretical and practical standpoint .... but I guess you can hope..

[lineygoblue]

They are setting up the most cunningly devised rope-a-dope strategy for a certain game at the end of November. Rudock is going to bomb the Bucks for about 500 yards. :-)

[hack]

Sometimes it was Chesson not catching a decently thrown ball. It does seem like the odds of Rudock throwing and Chesson catching are pretty long.

[WingsFan]

Calling it now, Ruddock completes a 50+ yard td. Just like Vegas...red red red red red red....black.

That's very possible, with 35 - 40 YAC

[WM Wolverine]

It'll take all 40 yards of yac, it's sad how rarely we see balls thrown less than 12 yards downfield COMPLETED.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Last couple of days have seen publication of the usual preview stuff at the web sites most of us frequent. I've got the time to plow through this stuff that no everyone does so, Cliff notes:

This should be a good test for Harbaugh's uncanny ability to run into those stacked fronts. Michigan State bottled the run game up pretty well with similar tactics (and way better interior DL). Michigan can't pass its way out of this one, and Mortell won't give many short fields unless Peppers gets some back.

While pretty vanilla, this seems to sum up the M/Minny contest pretty well. The meat of the statement that, "M can't pass its way out of this one," rests on the fact that Minnesota has a very good pass defense made so by both scheme and talent. Minny runs the same kind of aggressive cover zero (or variations of whatever you want to call man coverage with the Ss up close and nothing deep) that MSU does.

The difference is in the talent level of the front 4 especially in protecting the interior v. the run. I see some chunk plays coming here from both Houma and D. Smith ..... and by chunk you should know what I mean here.

I kinda object to describing the IZ run Harbaughffense as chicanery which is the case in one of the previews I read. It's just fundamentally sound from an execution standpoint and the OL and RBs have it down unlike 2014 when there was supposed to be a bread and butter run play that the O went to but never achieved.

The goal of Harbaughffense first and foremost is to win the game at the LOS. M will win that one based on talent and execution. However, if the implication of some previewers is that M is going to score points with only a run game, I'd disagree with that and I'm pretty sure Harbaugh knows where the Gopher weakness is. The D tends to overcommit on the PA leaving gaping holes in the coverage underneath.

This is where TEs and the backs making their way to that part of the field after chip blocking will be wide open. That's going to add to those chunk pays and move the chains IF, IF, IF Rudock makes those plays. One thing that will help is that he's going to have good protection like he did against Northwestern and that was his best passing game so, making those plays is going to be the key match-up or test for the M offense in this game. If it goes well, M will get the separation it needs to keep something awful from happening at the end of the game. If not, it's gonna be a nail biter.

[Prime2]

Here's to hoping Harbaugh has his team ready to crush Minnesota. At least it will keep Drew Hanni or Hanni Sharp (if you prefer) at bay temporarily.

[Tslisher]

Hard to get a read on this game for some reason. My best guess, the offense tries most of the game to get out of their own way, but the defense plays lights out.

I'd say something like 24 - 3 good guys.

[lineygoblue]

No prediction. Just win.

[Ghengis Jon]

... Drew Hanni or Hanni Sharp (if you prefer) ....

Very, very harsh. But not too far off.