Michigan @ Minnesota, Saturday, 10/31, 7pm EDT, ESPN

[Mike]

I'd say there is a valid sample size that indicates Rudock is simply incapable of making those throws.

[hack]

To Chesson at least.

[iam416]

Buchanan:

I think what I would say in response is that you underestimate how well M's defense matches up with the Goofers and Penn State. And I just don't think Indiana or Rutgers is all that good. IU can't run the ball and they don't have a really good WR. Rutgers is the Caroo show and that's it.

Offensively, I think you're by and large correct. M's problem has been the problem everyone said would be the problem -- they don't stretch the field. I don't think anyone thought Ruddock would be quite so awful at it, but there was plenty of evidence to think he wouldn't be good. And so teams can do all the things teams do when they're not concerned about the outside passing game. And if that team has a quality front 7, then it's a slog. If not, M can still bull its way to an easy win. Now, I'll give M credit in that they fully recognize this issue and have resorted to working Peppers into the offense to at least stretch the field horizontally.

So, I dunno. I definitely defer to you on your takes about M with a modest adjustment for pessimism/optimism based on the tone. So, I'm inclined to think you're pretty close to correct re M. I do think, however, you overestimate M's upcoming opponent.

[hack]

And if that team has a quality front 7, then it's a slog.

This is the key here. And if you mean, by ``quality'', one of the best in the country, than it's going to be awfully difficult. But short of that, Michigan's been able to handle people this year.

[iam416]

Well, I'm not sure MSU has "one of the best in the country." I mean, I think it's a good, solid front 7....that has given up way more rushing yards to every non-MAC school on its schedule than it gave up to M.

It's certainly a far better front 7 than any M has faced since playing Utah. Incidentally, every team but ASU that has played Utah has rushed for more yards against them than M....including Cal.

[Hannibal]

The running game this year has been a disappointment. The only starter that we lost was Jack Miller and all three of our returning tailbacks are averaging less ypc than last year. The only time that the running game has consistently moved the ball for us was the second half against Oregon State.

[hack]

How many front 7s are clearly better? I don't honestly know. But I did expect that its stats would look better against Michigan. Rivalry game and all that.

[iam416]

Hack:

I don't know about "clearly" better, but I think Alabama, Florida, LSU, Clemson, Florida State, Mississippi and Utah are better. I think Michigan and Iowa's front 7 have clearly performed better. I think Ohio State and Penn State are at least as good or better, and I think teams like Arkansas and Boise are comparable (and maybe you move Ole Miss and Utah to this category). I also think Temple has a really nice run defense, but you know, Temple.

I should reiterate, though, that this is front 7 in terms of run defense. MSU's front 7 has a really good edge rusher which some of the teams above lack. And I think Calhoun and McDowell are really, really good players.

But overall, they haven't been particularly good against the run and I'd say they're roughly in the 10ish range amongst P5 schools (64). Which I would consider "quality."

Put another way, I think there are a fair number of teams that would give M's running game problems. I think PSU will be a great litmus test for this theory.

JMO.

[Hannibal]

We will have to win ugly against Penn State.

IMHO for your running game to be considered "good", it can't completely disappear against good run defenses like it has against Utah and MSU this year. It also can't define "success" as breaking one or two long runs per game. The whole idea behind a running game is consistency. If you get your 4.4 ypc by mixing in one 70-yard run with 25 2-yard runs then you might as well be throwing the football on every down instead.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yeah ..... and this is just frustrating. Rudock can't make plays and while Smith is fun to watch bulling his way for mostly 3 or 4 yards, chunk plays are rare cause he just doesn't have the burst speed.

What should be sobering to all the overly optimistic out there is that M's 3rd down conversion rate, while it is in the top half of the nation, its only 41% compared to the 2014 Hoke mark of 39%. It was a terrifying 27% v. MSU.

To put a visual on this - the eyeball test - it is deflating to watch M not be able to make 3 yards on a 3rd and 3 or one yard on a 4th and inches or watch the futility of trying to ram it in for a TD v. MSU when Houma actually didn't cross the plane on the 3rd attempt until he wiggled in the last few inches. That was a gift from the replay officials ..... no, I'm sorry, that was a continuation of their utter incompetence.

[hack]

People should not have in the first place considered our running game to be good. We have a bunch of very flawed backs, an OL growing out of its old habits, and can't stretch the field. And for all his flaws and the clowns that coached him, Devin Gardner was a playmaker that needed to be accounted for, and Rudock isn't. It's great that the coaches have found a way to make it work, and it's fine against front 7s that aren't quality/elite/good/whatever word we eventually settle on, but clearly it's stoppable. Given a solid

Agreed that PSU offers a test.

[Hannibal]

With four returning starters (5 out of 6 if you include tight ends) it was very reasonably expected to be good.

[lineygoblue]

LOL @ Gardner was a playmaker ....

... maybe for the opposing team .... :-)

Sorry, but from my POV, we're better off this year with Rudock.

[Jeff Buchanan]

My view is that the run game was only going to be good if Harbuaghffense had a QB that could stretch the field if only just a little. That's not been the case and that has had a large impact on the apparent ineffectiveness of the run game.

You can't separate those two factors when looking at the quality of the run game, IMO.

[iam416]

My view on Gardner is colored because he single-handedly nearly beat OSU two years ago and last season he was the sole reason M kept it close for so long, with several massive "broken" play 3rd down conversions. That's what scares me. Hell Zander f'n Diamont gashed OSU on scrambles. Beating a play and losing to it is awful. Ruddock can't really do that, though there was a game where he did scramble well. For that matter, Cardale Jones can't really do that.

I feel like M's offense is much more straight-forward this year. Stop their running game and you're generally ok, though you'll probably give up some short-mid range completions here and there.

It's going to annoy the ever-living shit out of me when Ruddock finally starts hitting deep balls against Ohio State.