Michigan @ Minnesota, Saturday, 10/31, 7pm EDT, ESPN

[froot loops]

Move on to recruiting? There is nothing going on right now anyways. If you're in on the ground floor of HARBAUGH! stay in on the ground floor. How they continue is very important for the sake of your program.

Lineygoblue is right, it isn't over. Getting to a good bowl game and finishing the season strong is pretty important.

[Rocky Bleier]

I'm not going anywhere, but the majority of my present excitement toward the program has shifted to the future. A win over Minnesota won't mean as much to me as the commitments of a few 5 star kids.

[froot loops]

Live in the present Rocky! A thorough beatdown of the Gophers is the tonic you need. You gotta get that Brown Jug back after they took it from you last year.

The 5 stars will come but it won't happen right now.

[Rocky Bleier]

I remember there being some controversy after last year's game. Something to do with Pizza Dave from Ever After.

[The Oracle]

I'm not going anywhere, but the majority of my present excitement toward the program has shifted to the future. A win over Minnesota won't mean as much to me as the commitments of a few 5 star kids.

Those 2 things aren't mutually exclusive; I know I'd take a win vs Minny and still a chance at those guys than a loss and guarantee to get those guys.

[Rocky Bleier]

Just lost a little wind from my sails. I'll be around. I was "in on the ground floor" for SCHEMBECHLER! and endured Hokriguez.

[hack]

Rashan Gary to Michigan: ``Lose to Minnesota or I'm out''

[The Oracle]

Peace.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Lets be clear here. I NEVER thought M was going to CFB Playoffs. I started the season at 8-4, went to 9-3 is the floor after three consecutive shutouts and am now expecting 8.5 wins ..... IOW M MIGHT get to 9 wins.

Why do I see things like this (as posted above)? One: Stats. There are a ton of them out there with most of them about 75-78% accurate in their forward looking predictive value. Two: The eyeball test.

Just picking one, because it is easy to predict a winner from the compilation of data included in it, the ESPN FPI, here's what it predicts:

Beat @Minny by 16 with an 83% Probability of winning (POW).
Beat Rutgers by 35 with a 93% POW
Beat @IU by 17 with a 86% POW
Beat @PSU by 10 with a 68% POW
Lose to osu by 5 with a 43% POW

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/tab/fpi

Now apply the eyeball test. In the 4 projected wins does anyone here think Rudock is going to hit the deep ball (or any big play for that matter) consistently enough to provide separation between M and their opponent at critical points in the game? I don't and there is plenty of objective data to support that view.

As it's been pointed out among M posters and others here, MSU probably has the best front 4/7 M has faced and none better going forward. Understood. I thought M's passpro was good enough against the MSU D and there's some data around to support that. But still, Rudock simply couldn't make the throws he needed to make at key points in the game to get the separation M needed to put distance between MSU and M; Harbaugh clearly put the plays in to get it. Rudock's inability to do that, along with his inability to move the chains for ONE MORE first down to end the game, allowed what happened in the final 10 seconds of that game.

Rudock missed a sure touchdown pass to a streaking Darboh who had beat his man deep that would have put M up 21-14; later he missed the throw to (?) in the flat that got batted down at the line and if that throw is made M scores a TD and goes up 31-21; there are a couple others but you get the point.

So, yeah, M might be able to handle the LOS to allow a run game to emerge in games against everyone but PSU and osu and the D might be able to hold every team they face except osu to under 21 points. MIGHT.

The eyeball test tells me the offense is going to struggle, because of Rudock and a run game that is anything but explosive. M will fail to get a lot of point separation in a couple of games (@PSU most likely, @Minny next and even @IU who gave osu all they could handle) and end up with excruciatingly uncomfortable closing minutes of these games.

I think there's one more loss out there before osu (PSU, Minny and IU in order of probability) and the chances of beating osu are not looking anywhere near as good as they did when the osu offense was in disarray and both the O and the D didn't look that great with all the injuries at key spots.

So, 9-3 tops, 8-4 the floor ....... right now.

If someone here wants to come up with something other than bluster or subjective declarations that I'm wildly underestimating M's offense to counterbalance what I'm saying here. Great. I'm all ears.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Possibly one other salient point about Rudock.

Brian, in his mailbag piece at mgoblog, answers why he thinks Rudock isn't delivering in the passing game in a manner consistent with the way he played for Iowa in 2015.

(1) He's hurt or (2) I have no idea.

He puts up a couple of videos that suggest the former and show funky throwing mechanics between a game he played in week 12 v. Illinois for Iowa and one he played in week 5 for M v. Maryland.

I'd add maybe Harbaugh tried to change them and that's not working out so well.

[WM Wolverine]

I noticed Rudock is putting a ton of effort into his deep balls, not close to his natural throwing motion.

[Hannibal]

Rudock has clearly sucked since the first game when people were already trying to make excuses for him. At least he has cut down on the turnovers though. Should finish 9-3 on our current trajectory.

Minny sucks ass. The game should be ugly but not particularly close. Like the Maryland game but not quite as lopsided.

Should

[Jeff Buchanan]

A post at mgoblog (Diaries) just got the shit negged out of it - and should have - because it suggested that Rudock is just scared to throw it deep (or sometimes anywhere else on the field) because of the risk of turnover.

The writer also suggests that Harbaugh may be behind this choosing instead to play a zero risk offense while Rudock is in at QB due to JH's concern over a turn over ...... what is meant by this is that Rudock is checking out of any throw that might be 50/50 and if he does go long, he has been coached to overthrow for 0 risk than chose the 50/50 shot and let his receivers go up for it.

The evidence (re: lots of film and 7 UFRs) shows this hypothesis to be utterly absurd ....... and the poster got told that.

Anyway, I just brought this up because (a), no shit, it resonates with me because the null-hypothesis, that something is wrong with Rudock/he just cant make the throws is (b) MUCH more likely and, at the same time, continues to give evidence that the offense is much more limited than some optimists predicting 10-2 are willing to accept.

PS ..... I really hope I am totally wrong about this and the optimists will have the last laugh.

[Hannibal]

Anyone who goes against the mgoblog religious orthodoxy gets negbanged to Egypt.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, that, but this guy (gsimmons) deserved to get negbanged to Egypt because he is just plain out to lunch suggesting Rudock could make the throws if he or Harbaugh weren't so scared of a turnover.