MICHIGAN'S MEN'S BASKETBALL: 2015-2016

[WM Wolverine]

If Sparty were a 1-seed that upset would've toppled App State but they weren't.

[CGVT]

If Sparty were a 1-seed that upset would've toppled App State but they weren't.

This argument is valid ;)

[WM Wolverine]

We can still toss that shit at them, Sparty was very, very optimistic about their chances in this tournament.

[iam416]

It will be something obsessed M fans remember, but it won't be a national punchline.

[Hannibal]

It will be good message board fodder until the next time that Beilien gets assraped and humiliated by Izzo. In other words -- the first time that they meet next season.

[Hannibal]

http://mgoblog.com/content/mailbag-coaching-turnover-ton-beilein-feelingsball

Hey Brian. I see you trying to walk the line of criticizing U-M basketball while not calling for Beilein's head. Here's the issue to me...
it's easy to compare Beilein to what came before and say look at his improvement. But the "fire Beilein" says "Well, that's not good enough." The better comparison isn't to what came before but to what would come after. What are the odds of replacing Beilein with someone who runs a clean program, fits culturally with the university, and achieves more success on the court? I put it at about 10%. That's not a chance worth taking for someone who may be marginally better. But the only thing that would satisfy these guys is if we were dominating the Big Ten. So then you need to consider the odds of getting the coach who runs a clean program, fits in culturally and consistently out-performs Izzo, Crean, et al. I put those odds under 1%.
So it's a shame that Beilein isn't a slightly better coach than he is, but Michigan's biggest obstacle is that our rivals' programs are just consistently too good.
-Anon

I mean, yeah. I think we're all pretty disappointed where the program is right now but that's largely an artifact of Beilein's insane level of success over the three years from 2012-14, which went

• Big Ten Title
• National Championship Game
• Outright Big Ten Title & Elite Eight

Frankly I didn't expect that level of performance from Beilein when he was hired. I just wanted to make the tournament most of the time and Pittsnogle some higher seeds. Take that expectation and remove the team's star for consecutive years and this is what you get.

That said, the trend here, especially on defense, is alarming. It's not really about the level of the program, it's about the direction of the arrow. If Beilein's projected performance going forward is the average of his Michigan career minus his first year (which I think we can issue a mulligan for given the state of the roster) then yes, it will be very difficult for Michigan to match or exceed that. If it's the last two years, even considering Levert's injury, then the pool of candidates who can expect to match or do better expands considerably.

I don't think that's clear yet. I do think we're going to see an offseason shakeup and hopefully a defensive specialist brought in. I am still resigned to the fact that Beilein's peak is likely to have already passed and that we'll probably be gunning for a Sweet 16 or two before he retires, not a title.

It's a shame that only three good years in nine means exceeded expectations for Michigan's most prominent blogger.

[WM Wolverine]

He needed about 3-years to build the program out of the gutter of mediocrity as Amaker's recruiting really started to fall off in his last couple classes.

[Cody_Russell]

I miss that 2007 team.
Manny Harris, Ekpe Udoh, Anthony Wright, DeShawn Sims, Ron Coleman, and Kelvin Grady.

[WM Wolverine]

Manny, Sims + Udoh could've become a pretty decent squad. In fact, Udoh's agent, I mean AAU coach convinced him to go to Baylor was one of JB's first big misses at M. Getting him to stay and showing what a center could do in his offense might've helped the recruiting of that type of player...

They went 21-14 in '08-'09, Udoh could've made that team quite a bit better. Not sure why the '09'-'10 squad was so horrible. Darius Morris wasn't ready to play PG at a B1G level and Sims was the only B1G caliber frontcourt player.

[hack]

I read that post too and was quite surprised at how his position has changed on Beilein, and that it wasn't an excusefest.

[CGVT]

Just for you, Liney. ;)

[Hannibal]

I read that post too and was quite surprised at how his position has changed on Beilein, and that it wasn't an excusefest.

Even though his opinioned has changed a little bit, he is still of the mind that Beilien is the best that we can do, and we should be eternally grateful for seven seasons of mediocrity or outright shittiness plus two nice tourney runs. The standards just aren't high enough.

Also, and I don't feel much like searching the site to find out, but I'll bet that if you went back to the Beilien hire, expectations were either at this current level or higher.

[hack]

Well, I don't know. He's not where I think we would want him to be, but this is major progress IMO:

It's not really about the level of the program, it's about the direction of the arrow. If Beilein's projected performance going forward is the average of his Michigan career minus his first year (which I think we can issue a mulligan for given the state of the roster) then yes, it will be very difficult for Michigan to match or exceed that. If it's the last two years, even considering Levert's injury, then the pool of candidates who can expect to match or do better expands considerably.

What I like about this statement is that it considers Amaker only relevant in Year 1 and not anymore, and it acknowledges that if we don't return to '13/14 levels, or even to being a solid tournament team not living on the bubble, then you could have a whole bunch of ``yes this guy could do better'' candidates out there.

[paul daugherity]

I was surprised that Brian posted any criticism of Beilien. However, that criticism was pretty tepid. I agree with Hannibal - the expectations are too low. It ignores the history of the program prior to Ed Martin. No, UM basketball was never a "blue blood", but it was competitive and usually had some very good players.

The post-Ed Martin self imposed exile is still clinging to the program. The administration needs to get over it and move on - it was almost 20 years ago.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Dunno ...... I don't claim to know anything about basketball but I do know about the circumstances of which you speak re the Martin fiasco and ensuing self emolation.

What drove the decision to fire Hoke was the prospect of declining future dollars and the likelihood of the football program, under his leadership, not being able to support the Athletic Department's overall revenue requirements. That is a powerful motivating factor that, as far as I can tell, is not at present with JB.

I don't think Ws/Ls are a single motivating factor in a decision regarding his tenure. Lacking money concerns, there's no powerful motivators to terminate him. I also don't think the hangover of the aftermath of the Fab-Five era has any remaining impact. It was definately present in the Amaker hire, less so in the JB hire and, IMO, is no longer a factor among deciders of JB's future.

Fans? That's a whole different situation. I don't think fan expectations are low at all. While student and fan discontent (along with DB's awful ego and arrogance) brought Dave Brandon down and ushered in the firing of BH and hiring of JH, there is nothing even close to that sort of sentiment present with regard to JB. However, there is good evidence that basketball fan discontent is on the rise but, IMO, it is absolutely a non-factor in a determination of JB's longevity