MICHIGAN'S MEN'S BASKETBALL: 2015-2016

[*JD*]

We'll find out within the next two weeks if this is a team that's stocked and primed for a championship run, a team that has the talent to compete for a B1G title and win a game or two in the tourney or something in between.

If everyone returns, Michigan should be one of the top 3 title contenders if not the favorite. You'd expect half of Kentucky's squad will be gone. Other teams with good recruiting classes are expected to be losing their star players (Kansas, Arizona, doook, UCLA) and won't have quite the experience that I think Michigan will have.

Regarding players that are very likely to come back:

I don't know if Walton will make the "Burke" jump (or even the Morris jump) from Frosh to Soph but I think he will be significantly improved. He already showed flashes of being a clutch player this past season.

I can easily see Zak transforming into something similar to what Stauskas was, if that slot is vacated. Maybe not in terms of passing but he's already got a pretty deadly 3-pointer and I can see him learning this summer to put the ball on the floor a lot more.

Spike had a solid but not really noteworthy Sophomore season. I thought there might be one or two games where he'd show some of that title-game magic. It was never a negative when he was on the court but I'm hopeful we'll see his game improve a little more next year.

Horford was having a pretty strong year up until about the halfway point of the season. I hope he takes on the attitude that Morgan had about making his senior year a memorable one. With or without Mitch, Michigan is going to need a full year of production from Jon.

LeVert can step into being the lead scorer regardless of who returns. I think he'll probably add another 10 pounds in the offseason and become a 1st round pick. He's got to cut down on his turnovers, though. Maybe it's just the memory of the Tennessee game that's still fresh in my head but it seemed like a lot of his TO's came in the last 5-10 minutes of games. All in all, I feel pretty good about him getting even better than he was this year.

Donnal. I hope he's productive as a 3rd big. I'm not expecting too much off the bat. If he can play 10-15 minutes and get 5 points and 3 or 4 rebounds, I'll be happy...unless both Mitch and Glenn are gone.

The Beef- I'm not expecting much out of Max. Not that I think he's terrible, he's just a bit undersized and limited. If he has a few good games when others get into foul trouble, that's a win.

Chatman- I think he can at least have the same impact as Zak did this year. I'm excited to see how good of a rebounder he is, as that was one of his noted skills as a high schooler. If there are mass departures, I could see him being a starter at the 4.

Somewhat related- I do have to say that I saw Kevon Looney for a few minutes in the McDonald's game and he looked really good. He was giving up inches but was rebounding everything, ran the floor well and blocked at least one shot in the segment I saw him. I'm much more bummed that Michigan missed out on him than on Booker or Blackmon Jr. I think UCLA got a stud.

DJ Wilson- I think he's a "break glass if needed" player. He's certainly athletic but he's also still a rail. I'm guessing he redshirts unless he either beefs up or if Mitch leaves.

Doyle- I'll be surprised if he doesn't redshirt.

Hatch- I don't know what is going to happen, except that he'll be in A2 in the fall. It would be a feel good story to see him play a game for Michigan but I doubt that's going to happen.

[Detroit Dan]

Should be a good season. Look for LaVert to be B1G player of the year?

[WM Wolverine]

McGary & Stauskus are both better if they return.

[jaadam4]

I could see Stauskus going pro. I don't think he can improve his draft status much by coming back although I no doubt think it would make him a better NBA player. Stauskus is a late lottery pick.

Just can't see McGary going pro after basically sitting out a whole season. His freshman year was pretty much average until his sick play in the tournament. I can't for the life of me understand why it's even being discussed for him going pro. GRIII too. His resume is inconsistent and not even close to being a lottery pick. They have talent but need at least one more year

[Da Geezer]

Stauskas goes. GRIII and McGary stay. UM becomes the favorite to win the B10, but OSU actually wins it. OSU has a terrific recruiting class.

[iam416]

Wisky is probably the favorite. However, I'm not familiar with their attrition potential. They lose Brust. Kaminsky and Dekker, I assume, will come back. They will be tabbed favorites unless M returns fully loaded -- then both will be top 5.

I don't think Stauskas or GR3 improve their draft stock. They are what they are. I think GR3 would actually be well-served by going to the NBA and getting full-time coaching, practice, etc. He has the athleticism to hang around in the league -- he needs a consistent jump shot to get real minutes.

McGary should, obviously, come back. People don't have a particularly good idea of what he is. He showed nicely for 8-10 games last season, but that's it. This season would show if he can be a go-to scorer and that would up his stock significantly.

OSU will be good, but Russell and Diop aren't Conley and Oden by a wide stretch. I'm not sure there's really a surefire 1 and done high lottery pick in this class, period. Russell and Diop should both be around for 2 years, IMO. So, they should make it so OSU doesn't drop off any, but whether they improve much is a big question.

[Hannibal]

With both McGary and Robinson, I think that we should be the conference favorites by a country mile. We just won the conference by three games, and we would only be losing Stauskas (who is a great player but he is at a very deep position) and Morgan, who is a crowd favorite but realistically can't hold a candle to McGary. You've got three 5* recruits and two 4* recruits on the team with lots of experience. In addition, you've got a fifth year senior backup at center, Caris Lavert, and an experienced backup at point guard. And then you've got a 4* redshirt freshman coming in and another stud true freshman (Chatman) coming in. That's a team that is only slightly less talented than the '93 Final Four team, but with better coaching.

With just McGary, I still like us as the favorites.

Without McGary, I think that we're probably a 10-8 or 11-7 conference outfit.

[iam416]

If Wisky only loses Brust, they'll be really good.

[hack]

Agreed about GR3 - if he gets a late-first promise its in his best interests to go. I don't agree that you develop more in the NBA in that situation than in college, but with him really it's just about that jumper. Extend to 3-point range and everything flows from there. He can work on his jumper whether he goes pro or not.

He would be a luxury to have back, and really and truly the big variable is McGary. With him, we're the favorite. Without him, not close.

Stauskas: he tweeted something about how tempting it is to come back next year with all the talent on the team. I don't know if that's a hint as to what the others are doing, but what a tease. GR3's main function would be keeping Irvin out of the starting lineup and therefore preserving bench depth, but to have Stauskas AND McGary would be motherfreakin' insane. That's a championship-or-bust lineup.

Overall, just getting McGary back would be fine. That's an FF-worthy lineup too. Just without depth on the wing unless Chatman is ready to provide that.

[Hannibal]

IMHO GRIII has to develop more than just his jump shot.

He still has Top 5 pick measurables. If you're a guy like that and you're only going in the 2nd round, it is in your best interests to stay. He will have more time to work on his game in the NBA, but with a relatively crappy rookie contract, and he will be doing it under the guidance of guys who have been hired because of their abilities to manage millionaires, not their abilities to develop 20 year olds' fundamentals. In his case, the rookie contract money difference could be huge.

[iam416]

GR3 needs to dedicate himself to shooting. He can do that in the NBA.

WRT to contracts, my understanding with the NBA is that the key is get the clock running so you get out of the rookie pay-scale thing or whatever. Put another way, if GR3 comes out this year he gets to big money a year earlier. So, it's the delta between rookie contracts vs 1 year of big money. I think the latter is more.

[hack]

Agreed. Get the shot down, things flow from there. Dakich nailed it late in the season -- he flops his wrist on his followthrough instead of flicking it.

[Hannibal]

GR3 needs to dedicate himself to shooting. He can do that in the NBA.

WRT to contracts, my understanding with the NBA is that the key is get the clock running so you get out of the rookie pay-scale thing or whatever. Put another way, if GR3 comes out this year he gets to big money a year earlier. So, it's the delta between rookie contracts vs 1 year of big money. I think the latter is more.

With those economics, you are assuming that Robinson will be a success and that his career earnings will be determined by his age. i.e. by leaving early, he gets a 12 year career instead of an 11 year career. That is not a good assumption. If you are a mediocre or a crappy player in any sport, then you get a few years and then you are gone. You aren't better off getting those three years from age 21-23 than you are getting them from age 22-24, and in Robinson's case, I think that his early money and his chance of NBA success improve significantly if he stays.

IMHO way too many guys leave early because they assume that the extra year is money in the bank, without considering that

1. You would probably get that money anyways, just shifted by a year
2. You will, in the overwhelming majority of cases, get more money in your early years if you are a more refined player coming out of college.
3. In college, you are playing for guys are are paid to develop kids' fundamentals. In the pros, you aren't.
4. The earlier you go, the more likely you are to get a second chance if you are a bust because teams will assume that there is a good player in there somewhere.

Leaving early for lots of kids is a shortsighted decision with poor economics, probably largely driven by the fact that they tend to be cocky and overconfident about their abilities to be an immediate success in the NBA.

[The Oracle]

IMO, this is why the NBA is such a joke they way they scout and draft players. I totally understand valuing potential. But they way they look at 3-4 year players entering the league is a joke. On average you're probably only getting a guy for 4-5-6 years anyway. I can understand devaluing someone like DeAndre Kane a bit; he's 25. But they take it to a new level on 21-22 year olds.

[hack]

Well if you're looking at a lottery pick, you're hoping to have him for ten. I think it's a concern for a guy like McGary. Outside the lottery, I fully agree with you.