MICHIGAN'S MEN'S BASKETBALL: 2015-2016

[Hannibal]

IMHO with or without Levert, a 4 seed or better has got to be expected. If you want to say that you have a "program", that's where you need to be.

[hack]

Agreed. I think it's reasonable to expect that, at this level, in an average year, they shouldn't wind up with less than a four seed more than two or three times in a decade.

[Mike]

I used to think some of you were being too hard on Belein and the team. After watching the tournament last night I was reminded just how awful the level of play is in the NCAA right now. Atrocious basketball everywhere. If you can't make this field, you are truly pathetic. What transpired yesterday set the game back decades. I can't even watch this sport unless Michigan is really good or it's the NCAA tourney. When 52-46 games are the norm and teams shoot in the low 30% range, it becomes a test of will to keep watching. It's like pre-lock out NHL. Gross.

[hack]

No denying it. I've seen many games live this year, mostly east-coast small schools, and, to be frank, most teams kinda have two bread-and-butter things they can do on offense, or one guy who can penetrate or post, and everything else is a struggle. It's a shame. Kids come to programs really, really raw. I remember when I got cut in my junior year, I could trace it back to a layup I didn't shoot with my offhand. It bugs me to see kids, or pros even, going up with their favored hand on both sides of the basket. Just one example.

Still a great game though. Rivalry games in particular are fantastic even despite that.

[Hannibal]

Agreed. I think it's reasonable to expect that, at this level, in an average year, they shouldn't wind up with less than a four seed more than two or three times in a decade.

Heh. Dang. My expectations aren't quite that high, but I do think that being out of the post season entirely needs to be something that happens no more than once a decade. Reasonable expectations IMHO: Make the tourney 70% of the time, make the NIT 20%, and you get one bust every ten years. Be alive for the Big Ten title going into the final week of the season at least half the time and actually win the conference tourney once for fucksaskes.

[hack]

I'd say one bust every ten years, defined as not making the tourney at all. NIT is bust. I think three times missing the tourney in a decade feels like one too many.

[Hannibal]

I'm glad that your expectations are higher than mine.

I would describe that as elite-ish performance. I'd love it, but realistically, I'd settle for the criteria that I outlined earlier.

[hack]

Well elite is 2-4 FFs and conference titles a year, either a 1 or 2 seed 80% of the time, etc. Kansas, Duke, etc. etc. No reason we shouldn't be a step below that level -- basically where Wisconsin is at, which is more or less us from 12-14. They have Bo Ryan and Madison, but we're no slouch, especially with our facilities so new and sparkly and the number of kids we've sent to the NBA lately. Over time there should be only a handful of clean non-blueblood programs that should outperform Michigan, and none of them have a real inherent advantage save for having been good for a long time. Programs like Arizona, Florida, UConn, Michigan State.

[The Oracle]

Agree with most of the above on next year. If Levert comes back and Wagner comes(probably 75% he does) there's no reason they shouldn't be a favorite to win the league. I don't even think that's banking on guys "taking the leap" either. They could be even better if Chatman and Doyle take the "sophomore leap".

[The Oracle]

BTW, FWIW, Eric Bossi was on Ms Rivals board and said if Wagner was a senior in the states, he's be ranked in the 20-40 range. That's pretty significant and it's a big deal if he ends up coming.

[hack]

Yeah. He's not a small-scale recruit. That said when the combination of skinny finesse big and Beilein -- I've seen that story before. And, frankly, Beilein's stocked his pipeline at positions 1 through 4. Never a problem to have very talented kids coming in, but the biggest impact by far comes from a potential elite 5 recruit.

Agree about The Leap. This year nobody took it. Stands in contrast to last year. SOME of them will manage it this year. Hard to imagine zero offseason gains for the second year in a row. Most important one is Doyle. He needs to start figuring out the little things to anchor the D, and to be a credible roll man. Bonus points if he can outrebound a guard now and again.

[Cody_Russell]

If there is a scenario where Caris Levert, Jaylen Brown, and Max Biefeldt are playing for Michigan next season... That would be epic.

PG - Albrecht, Walton
SG - Levert, Dawkins, MAAR,
SF - Irvin, Chatman
PF - Jaylen Brown, Robinson, DJ Wilson
C - Bielfeldt, Doyle, Donnel

Final 4 team right here

[hack]

You mean Walton, right? But I agree. Frankly I don't think it takes landing Brown to make it happen, either. You can't rule out Chatman blowing up as a soph next year, or at least becoming a solid contributor. Michigan is absolutely stacked everywhere but C. There's two starting-calibre PGs who could grab all-conference honors, but may not because they'll have to split time. Beilein in the past has played them together, but look at what's on the wings:

2: LeVert, MAAR
3/3: Irvin, Dawkins, Robinson, Chatman

Irvin has a starting spot no matter what. If LeVert stays, he'll have his 2 spot. Irvin at 3, Chatman and maybe Robinson pushing Dawkins at 4.

If LeVert goes, MAAR will have to beat out Irvin for the 2 spot. Beilein typically wants more experience and on-ball creative ability there, and I bet he puts Irvin there unless MAAR proves he can create for others. I think it's going to be hard to keep Dawkins out of the starting lineup, but obviously Jaylen Brown can manage that.

IMO with or without LeVert and/or Brown, it's a big-expectations year. FF is reasonable in any scenario. But we'll see what happens. Attrition rumours mentioned, etc.

[The Oracle]

To answer the question, no there's no scenario in which Brown is playing here next year.

[Cody_Russell]

Yes, Walton. Not Weber... I must have had Chris Weber and Mike Weber in my mind when it comes to Michigan players / could have been players with a "W" last name.