MICHIGAN'S MEN'S BASKETBALL: 2015-2016

[WM Wolverine]

This team had a lot of question marks going into the season and it appears most all of those question marks aren't good answers for M.

[Paul L]

Nothing to see here; they'll be fine.

[Hannibal]

Also, the frontcourt is a steaming pile.

It is, indeed, a steaming pile. Not surprising, since we lost four guys there and the new guys coming in don't have as much talent. Not to mention, Michigan has never been a very good rebounding team under Beilein. Expectations were too high for this team. People have become so enamored with the "Beilein always makes chicken salad out of chicken shit" narrative that they have forgotten it took him until year 6 to make a Sweet Sixteen and it took him until year 7 to actually win two games in one Big Ten Tournament. IMHO a top 32 seed in the NCAA tourney would be a good season that people should be happy with, but they won't even make it into the tourney without massive improvement from a handful of players.

[hack]

Last year at this time you said the same thing, and they made the Elite 8.

[Hannibal]

Last year they hadn't lost to NJIT and a MAC team at home. There is still time for improvement but the starting point is way lower. And making the tourney would have still been viewed as a good season for last year's team at that time. That was before we knew that we were going to lose five guys off of it. Expectations increased when it became a "win now" year.

[hack]

The starting point isn't lower. Last year they hadn't beaten anyone out of conference at all unless you count Stanford. They have a similar quality win in Oregon this year, plus a higher-quality win over Syracuse.

[Hannibal]

Of course, my perception of this season down the road will be heavily colored by who we lose this off season. Right now it looks like only LeVert (and I guess Bielfeldt, not that it matters). Unfortunately, Beilien hemorrages players like a dotcom startup hemorrages cash, so I'm bracing myself for more.

[Hannibal]

The starting point isn't lower. Last year they hadn't beaten anyone out of conference at all unless you count Stanford. They have a similar quality win in Oregon this year, plus a higher-quality win over Syracuse.

You're kidding yourself. You have just seen possibly the worst two game stretch of Beilein's tenure at Michigan and two freshmen who were expected to make very important contributions this year (Donnal and Chatman) suck badly so far. This is the lowest point for the program since at least the 2011 MSU victory.

[hack]

Last yearyour fears proved overblown. The year before I spent the entire autumn and even through that awful February convinced that Michigan had the talent to make the Final Four and saying I thought they still could. So, well, I dunno -- maybe I'm kidding myself but maybe I'm not. You're right that this is a program low since that '11 moment. Why? Because almost everything else has been FRIGGIN GREAT! I can see why this week's an exception. You should be able to at least understand why someone might agree.

We're gonna lose Irvin too, I'd bet. I'm not surprised if he goes higher than LeVert. Beilein has MAAR and Dawkins projecting as four-year players, which is nice and will provide stability hopefully, but Beilein isn't hemorrhaging players. He's turning the program into a direct pipeline to the NBA. Isn't there any way you can find yourself able to view that as a positive?

[Hannibal]

He has lost numerous players to transfers, not the NBA, and he has also lost a handful of guys who have made bad decisions leaving early. MSU hasn't, which is why you hardly ever see them described as "young". We, on the other hand, are "young" for the fifth straight year.

Unfortunately, you might be right about Irvin. Beilein has found a lot of physically gifted guys who instantly bolt for the NBA the second that they reach a bare minimum level of production required for mock drafts to make them think that they can go in the first round. Irvin seems to be trending ominously in that range this year.

[hack]

1. MSU also isn't sending players to the league at the rate Michigan is, and it's not recruiting at the same level Michigan is. Which is a big part of why Michigan has won six of the last nine head-to-head meetings.

2. If LeBron had went to Michigan and stayed two years you would have claimed it was a stupid early entry. I've yet to see an early entry you think is a good idea.

3. Burke stayed, LeVert could have left but stayed, and McGary would have if not for the riduculous NCAA. Stauskas was a lottery pick. You thought Hardaway was a mistake and obviously in hindsight it wasn't. (So did I so in that particular case we were both wrong). So unless you regret the loss of Smotrych and his plodder feet, we're down to Horford and Morris. We didn't really suffer the loss of Morris, as they shared in the conference championship that year anyways. We'll see if we suffer Horford's absence. It's a problem now, but freshman take giant steps from December to March.

[Kstat]

Last year at this time you said the same thing, and they made the Elite 8.

They still had the jordan Morgan card to play last year. He saved their season after they lost to charlotte. Now they're in a worse situation without a veteran enforcer big man to turn to.

[hack]

It wasn't always Morgan. He had plenty of bad games. It was Morgan and Horford. Losing McGary for good gave those two certainty. They played much much better once it was clear McGary wasn't available.

But the real reason last year's season was ``saved'' was that the offense gelled. It takes time when you are blending freshmen and young upperclassmen. And the players the defense tries to stop have to adjust. Stauskas had that adjustment period last year -- he came out on fire, Duke stumped him, he recoverd, and then Indiana put Ferrell on him and then everyone was guarding him with PGs until he figured out how to play against smaller faster players and thrive. LeVert will go through that same process, and Irvin to a lesser extent. You can already Irvin now learning how to quietly lurk at 25 feet to set himself up.

What's nice about this year's team that is the same as last year's team is that there's three guys who can create for themselves and others. The bigs are younger, so I'm not expecting an elite 8 run or a conference title, but in the end the bigs last year weren't awesome. They merely played the role credibly. Getting outrebounded is nothing new, as you know. Morgan's defense was much less effective last year because of how charges were called (still think it was stupid to put him back in against Kentucky with 2 minutes left in the first half with 2 fouls. You could see that third foul coming a mile away).

The good thing is that freshman make huge leaps from December to March. Doyle is inconsistent now but by tournament time he is going to be an asset. Donnal might find his way too. Last night he stoned somebody at the basket with a block. That was nice to see.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Really appreciate your measured analysis, Hack ..... In both of M's revenue sports.

[hack]

Thanks Jeff! Kind of you to say.

But this is against the rules of sports forums. I'd appreciate it if you instead find something wrong with my post and go to town on it.