B1G/NCAA basketball

[iam416]

Incidentally, shooting a lot of 3s leads to M's overall #1 offensive efficiency numbers. Florida is #2, and they shoot more 3s than M. Both have comparable efficiencies. IU is #3, but there's a significant gap between Florida and IU.

That said, I think I prefer IU's model of efficiency for a tournament run. For a single game? No. Over the course of a season against a full spectrum of opponents? No.

JMO.

[hack]

Sullinger was a great college player. But he never got around anyone. He was just good at creating space and then turning and shooting. He had a small set of tools but used them exceptionally well. I really appreciate that -- he is a craftsman who honed his craft.

Re Beilein, well, I dunno. As mentioned, 3 legit bigs. We all know what Izzo would have done with this lineup: Morgan and Horford starting until McGary replaced one of them, Robinson at wing, Hardaway at guard. Would that be better than how Beilein is deploying these troops? Well, if you and I both agree on a defense-first approach, we have to conclude that Izzo's way would have been better. Even though Robinson is a very nice unconventional fit at PF and works well with the spread floor that helps Burke.

It's a tough one, IMO. I don't think you have to pack the inside anymore. Izzo is totally committed to that style of play, but I don't think it's a good idea for Beilein. Not his way; he'd never really commit to it. But even within the confines of his offense-first approach, you can heed the paint more than he does. It's the paint -- it's where basketball games have always been won, and that's unlikely to change no matter how gaudy the skillsets of the guards are. So Beilein could have really given Horford some run, and he's got that go-to hook move and who the heck knows if he can develop a second one. He won't if he doesn't get the chance. You can spread the floor with McGary too pretty soon, if you commit to getting him some touches and establish that unless you send a help defender he's going to get your big in foul trouble and get to the line. And you've got enough backup in Morgan and Horford to tolerate the charging call McGary is going to take a while to learn how to avoid. You can run this team a la OSU's lineup last year anchored by Sullinger, and still leave plenty of room for Burke to operate.

Ultimately I think the thing is that McGary needed the first month of the season to get up to speed because he had that injury and becuase he was such a spazz. He wasn't ready for post touches in December, but he sure is now. So get the damn ball in there! Call a play a half for him down there and see what happens in the next few games, and I'd bet that in a few weeks you're ready to call 2 plays a half for him. If Michigan plays Kansas in the tournament, having the ability to make Withey defend without fouling would be a huge advantage.

[lineygoblue]

Michigan is at 19-1 and ranked #1 in the country.

How could Izzo do better?

[The Oracle]

Being #1 in April?

[hack]

That one loss was to a far less talented team that punched Michigan so hard that it took about a third of the game before it started to recover. Again -- defense and interior play is a much more solid hook to hang your hat on. I'm not saying Beilein should channel Izzo. But that he might look for a few ways, within his preferred system, to shore up the weaknesses.

[DennisT]

Small sample size. JB doesn't have Izzo's track record yet. But he is certainly on the right track.

[hack]

I think without a doubt were Izzo the coach there might be more than one loss. That would be chiefly because Izzo plays a tougher non-con schedule. But the wins count for a lot more in March than in December, and Izzo knows that.

[The Oracle]

Beilein does a very good job with the noncon scheduling. Its usually very close in difficulty including this year.

[iam416]

Hack:

Agree re Sullinger. I'm actually a bit surprised that he's doing reasonably well with Boston.

Also mostly agree re M. I think Beilein probably is coaching for March more than you give him credit for, but I think he's being cautious about it.

Good discussion.

[hack]

Yeah. My opinion is going to be magnified because I'm a defense-first person and the coach of my team is an offensive wizard. But I can see he's really good at it, and I can see that his teams aren't prissy. Michigan's pretty tough. The conference certainly helps in that regard. He's still got a month to go with these guys, which is a long time for a freshman like McGary. I think we'll really and truly know what Beilein is all about next year, especially if McGary comes back. If he's not the first option with one of Morgan or Horford also starting and a new player in Burke's spot, then Michigan is highly unlikely under Beilein to ever put a premium on paint play. Unless Walton is insanely good, and I know some of us here think he will be. But he'd have to be one-and-done lottery level to build an offense around him over a hypothetical sophmore McGary.

[The Oracle]

Talent, you jump on the 119.5?

[Deuce]

I remember being bummed when Country Day's Amir Williams didn't goto to Michigan, but man he is terrible. Slow, weak, soft, awkward. McDonalds AA bust.

[iam416]

Oracle:

God yes. I thought it'd be about 112 and was contemplating playing that.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Good win over Wisconsin...always a pleasure beating those a$$holes

NC State loses their 3rd game out of 5, this time to UVA. They play Miami and Duke next

[Detroit Dan]

I'm amazed at how good the college basketball stats are these days -- with the fellas at mgoblog.com being fucking amazing in what they publish. I linked earlier to Ace's article showing McGary to be superior to Morgan (and Ace's article had a link to a Google spreadsheet with the raw data).

I strongly disagree with Hack's assertion that Michigan needs more offensive post play. That's just wrong based on the stats, and is a recurring theme over at mgoblog where the guys actually test their gut feelings against the data.

For much of the year, Izzo was starting 6'5" freshman Valentine over one of his two bigs (Nix & Payne).

And this talent/hack talk about the NCAA tournament doesn't ring true. Last year in the championship game Kentucky's offensive inside game sucked.

Doron Lamb, a sophomore with first-round-draft-pick possibilities, led the Wildcats (38-2) with 22 points, including back-to-back 3-pointers that put them up by 16 with 10 minutes left.

Of course, size and athleticism are the keys to defense and rebounding. Steve Fisher and the Fab Five were great defenders and had good success in the tournament.

Izzo's a great coach. He recruits good athletes and pushes them hard. But like every other successful coach, he knows that 3 > 2. You can make a case that MSU lost to IU because of turnovers (trying to force the ball into the post), while their 3 point shooting kept them in the game.

Even if Michigan loses early in the NCAA tourney, that doesn't mean a lot in my book. For any one game, luck can play a big role. Obviously, if you've got the better athletes you are more likely to survive on defense and rebounding, which are less variable. A win is a win whether in the regular season or the tournament.

To even be having this conversation is somewhat ridiculous, in my opinion. When your team is ranked #1 and has the best offensive efficiency in the country, there's not much justification for criticizing the coach. You've just got to stand back and admire a fantastic job, and perhaps contemplate the fact that you've been proven wrong...