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Latest bubble watch (as of 9:10pm 2/28)
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue
Should be in
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Steve Pikiell's team will finish Big Ten play no worse than 9-11, and, with games remaining at Nebraska and Minnesota, it's possible the Scarlet Knights will better that mark. The team's No. 8 seed in mock brackets and wins over Illinois, Purdue and Maryland and a season sweep of Indiana all say that Rutgers is going to the tournament. Yes, anything can happen, and, no, Bubble Watch doesn't recommend that the Scarlet Knights go 0-2 to end the regular season and then 0-1 in the Big Ten tournament. Nevertheless, this is a stronger position than anyone thought possible after Rutgers lost five straight.
Maryland Terrapins
With the notable exception of Arkansas, no team in the projected field had a more transformational February than Maryland. In the middle of that month, the Terrapins were cooling their heels in the "first four out" waiting room. Now, after an 18-point win at home over Michigan State, Mark Turgeon's team is projected as a No. 9 seed and has been granted "should be in" privileges here at Bubble Watch. Maryland's defense in particular has been outstanding during this five-game win streak, holding opponents to just 0.90 points per possession. Partly that's the result of two home games against Nebraska, but this D was undeniably impressive against Rutgers and the Spartans as well. The Terps have put the pieces together.
Work to do
Indiana Hoosiers
At halftime of their home game against Michigan State not so very long ago, the Hoosiers held both a No. 11 seed in mock brackets and a four-point lead over the Spartans. Since that moment, however, Archie Miller's team has played its way onto the ridge dividing "last four in" and "first four out." IU lost to MSU, lost at Rutgers and lost at home by 16 to Michigan. Fortunately for Indiana, the Big Ten has put "opportunities for bubble teams" into mass production this season. (Look at the miraculous trajectories recorded by both Maryland and Michigan State.) If the Hoosiers were to get it into their minds to somehow win games at MSU and at Purdue, we would look back on this moment and wonder what all the fuss was about.
Michigan State Spartans
By the lights of many bracket forecasters, Michigan State had, incredibly, played itself into the projected field as a No. 12 seed with its wins over Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State. It was a remarkable ascent, but it was followed by a rather unimpressive showing in a 73-55 loss at Maryland. Now that the Spartans' climb up the seed lines has hit a pause, consider MSU's future. A two-game set against Michigan will follow a home date against the Hoosiers. Those three opportunities for wins are not all created equal. One victory against the Wolverines hasn't done much good for Minnesota, granted, but it would be a precious commodity for the Spartans right now.
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue
Should be in
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Steve Pikiell's team will finish Big Ten play no worse than 9-11, and, with games remaining at Nebraska and Minnesota, it's possible the Scarlet Knights will better that mark. The team's No. 8 seed in mock brackets and wins over Illinois, Purdue and Maryland and a season sweep of Indiana all say that Rutgers is going to the tournament. Yes, anything can happen, and, no, Bubble Watch doesn't recommend that the Scarlet Knights go 0-2 to end the regular season and then 0-1 in the Big Ten tournament. Nevertheless, this is a stronger position than anyone thought possible after Rutgers lost five straight.
Maryland Terrapins
With the notable exception of Arkansas, no team in the projected field had a more transformational February than Maryland. In the middle of that month, the Terrapins were cooling their heels in the "first four out" waiting room. Now, after an 18-point win at home over Michigan State, Mark Turgeon's team is projected as a No. 9 seed and has been granted "should be in" privileges here at Bubble Watch. Maryland's defense in particular has been outstanding during this five-game win streak, holding opponents to just 0.90 points per possession. Partly that's the result of two home games against Nebraska, but this D was undeniably impressive against Rutgers and the Spartans as well. The Terps have put the pieces together.
Work to do
Indiana Hoosiers
At halftime of their home game against Michigan State not so very long ago, the Hoosiers held both a No. 11 seed in mock brackets and a four-point lead over the Spartans. Since that moment, however, Archie Miller's team has played its way onto the ridge dividing "last four in" and "first four out." IU lost to MSU, lost at Rutgers and lost at home by 16 to Michigan. Fortunately for Indiana, the Big Ten has put "opportunities for bubble teams" into mass production this season. (Look at the miraculous trajectories recorded by both Maryland and Michigan State.) If the Hoosiers were to get it into their minds to somehow win games at MSU and at Purdue, we would look back on this moment and wonder what all the fuss was about.
Michigan State Spartans
By the lights of many bracket forecasters, Michigan State had, incredibly, played itself into the projected field as a No. 12 seed with its wins over Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State. It was a remarkable ascent, but it was followed by a rather unimpressive showing in a 73-55 loss at Maryland. Now that the Spartans' climb up the seed lines has hit a pause, consider MSU's future. A two-game set against Michigan will follow a home date against the Hoosiers. Those three opportunities for wins are not all created equal. One victory against the Wolverines hasn't done much good for Minnesota, granted, but it would be a precious commodity for the Spartans right now.
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