B1G/NCAA basketball

[*JD*]

No kidding. mgoblog reposted this today, which reminded me that in addition to Tom Arnold (linesman's call) and whomever JD likes to say Crean looks like (I forget but that's also a good likeness), IMO Rick Moranis should play Crean in the eventual movie:

I always said Tom Arnold but that picture is very Rick Moranis.

[*JD*]

And Scottie Pippen, of course.

[hack]

That's Pippen on the right.

[iam416]

Kenpom projects 8-6 in favor the B10.

Rutgers @ Clemson. Projected Clemson 8. These two teams are awful. Oddly, Rutgers has shown a bit more early season, so this is probably a toss-up, but I'll ride with Clemson because, well, I'm not picking Rutgers.

UNL @ FSU. Projected FSU 1. If UNL plays well I think they win this game.

GT @ NW. NW 2. Hard to imagine NW beating any team that isn't awful. I'll go with GT.

VT @ Penn State. PSU 9. Another bleeding eyes game. Gah. I'll take PSU as the home team.

Pitt @ IU. IU 2. I'll take Pitt.

Goofers @ Wake. Minnesota 1. If Richard can't beat Wake the Goofers are in for a horrible year. I'll take Minny.

NCS @ Purdue. Purdue 5. Purdue will probably have the best team on the court and they've shown some ability to score. I'll take the Boilers, uncomfortably.

Virginia @ Maryland. UVa 1. Maryland will be lucky to score 50. Easy Cavs win.

Iowa @ UNC. UNC 7. Ummm, yeah. Easy Heels win.

Illinois @ Miami. Miami 5. I like Illinois a bit. But I think Miami will edge them in the final 2-3 minutes in front of a solid 1600 screaming Hurricane supporters. If only the football team drew so well.

Syracuse @ Michigan. M 3. I'll roll with M at home. JB knows how to coach against the zone and M has some shooters.

OSU @ Louisville. Cards 9. OSU is too young. They had difficulty with Marquette's defensive intensity. Louisville's intensity will obliterate them. I'm guessing upwards of 25 TOs.

MSU @ Notre Dame. MSU 1. True toss-up for me. ND won't be anywhere close the best team MSU has played this year -- while MSU will easily be the best team ND has played. I'll take MSU and count on shaking my head at ice cold Sparty shooting.

Duke @ Wisconsin. Wisky 1. I'm really tempted to take Duke, but Wisky's defense should flummox the youngsters a bit and the Kohl Center, for whatever reason, is a tough place to win.

So, I have 7-7 with about 6 or 7 games that I think will be really close.

[hack]

Louisville's intensity will obliterate them.

That's what it comes down to. Full respect for Pitino. He turns those kids into a collective buzzsaw.

MSU's shooting lapse was pretty easy to see coming yesterday. That's MSU these days. The defense isn't good enough to overcome the eventual ice-cold spell against top teams, and they shot really, really well in the first half just to play even with KU.

Duke let Army hang around yesterday and might not be ready to win in Madison, but they'll be fucking great by March. (You see that perimeter defense they play, Beilein? Add that and be ready to contend in '16 with Thornton, veteran wings and Doyle a sonofabitch in the paint as an upperclassman.)

[iam416]

Yeah, I think Duke is the better team and will definitely be the better team in March. But I'm just not sure about them right now. That's a "no play" game for me. Virginia will be favored by 2-4 points (lines are usually very close to Kenpom projections). They will rip Maryland.

As for OSU, it's a great learning game. They have scoring talent all over the court, but they're just so young. They need to learn how to play real defense (Matta has made the decision to go zone this season b/c I don't think he trust their man skills). They need to learn how to play against big-time defense. Louisville will certainly give them that. And then there's the B10. I think by March this team should be pretty good, and next season they should be really good.

[hack]

Louisville would toughen up anybody.

Not sure what you mean. Man's easier to learn then zone. Use your feet, stay in front of your guy, a few basic help concepts, bench guys when they coast and you've got it. You have some veterans in the mix to anchor this, and Scott in particular should be a great leader of the D at least. If Matta's gone zone, knowing his ability to get them to play great man D, he surely sees a tactical advantage somehow no?

[iam416]

Perhaps man requires a greater intensity and focus. Ball-you-man is easy enough, but then it gets harder. Fighting through picks (OSU is mostly a non-switch team) and playing help defense for the full shot clock can be hard.

Anyway, Matta always prefers to play man. He's played zone once or twice in the past with teams he said weren't able to play man. He's definitely trying to get this particular zone to use the team's athleticism and skills with a fair amount of at least 3/4 court press and a fairly aggressive perimeter approach. Lots of good 3P looks, though. And they get out and run fairly well from the zone which plays into their strengths. It's a complete 180 from last year's team.

[hack]

Yeah but that's how Matta teams have hung with Beilein teams despite having a severe talent deficit (just one example of that phenomenon). I dunno. Looking forward to watching what he's got going, I guess.

[iam416]

Heh. M has had the more talented team in two seasons against Matta -- the last two. Matta is 1-3 against M those two seasons after going something like 15-2. So, I don't think a great defense really does much for him. The one time he lost with a more talented team that comes to mind was in 2012 when they managed to score 51 at M. Silly bad offense. In the B10 Tourney, M muddled through to their same 55/56, but OSU played far better offense and won going away.

I think with Matta, as with all pretty good coaches, he understands his team and what approach is going to help them win the most. I think that changes from year-to-year, and this year's team is waaaay different from last year's. Beyond defense/offense, he's also going 9/10 deep in the rotation. He typically never goes beyond 7, and the 7th guy gets spot minutes.

[hack]

In 12 that was a different Michigan team. We were still reliant on guys like Novak and Douglass. The talent gap wasn't there yet, and Michigan wasn't yet hanging its hat on offense exclusively. Those teams under Beilein hustled a little harder on D to make up the talent gap and because of Novak's impact, though of course never quite with the same effectiveness.

I'm sure Matta knows better than me. I like going 9/10 deep. Keep them fresh, keep them united, keep them hustling on D and use the first 10 games of the season to get that man defense down. I dunno. Must keep an open mind; can't be Hokeish about it. That's a lesson you learn if you're me and Beilein's coaching your team. Zones are evolving obviously, but I don't know that it's so easy. You don't just snap your fingers and have a great and modern zone. It takes the right athletes but also a lot of practice time, and practice time is finite. Not enough for all the things you want them to execute well.

[iam416]

I don't think zone is easy to play and I don't think OSU is playing it particularly well. They have, to date, played it against very not good teams.

Correct re 2012, OSU was more talented and better. 2013, M had the talent advantage, though it was within range. Last season M had a much more talented team. This season, OSU probably has as much talent or more. But, it's young.

In any event, the B10 is going to be a great regular season to watch. I'm sort of dreading March b/c I can't see UK or Duke not winning. And I hate both of those teams.

[Cody_Russell]

I think you are underestimating how good Maryland is. It will be a close game.

[hack]

Correct re 2012, OSU was more talented and better. 2013, M had the talent advantage, though it was within range. Last season M had a much more talented team. This season, OSU probably has as much talent or more. But, it's young.

I think Michigan was a hell of a lot more talented these past two years. Last year it was a shockingly wide gap, but the year before it was still a team with six current/future NBA players (Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway, McGary, LeVert, GR3) against a team with none. That's admittedly a very rough measure of the talent gap but still a good one IMO. In that '12 overtime game you outplayed us on a possession-by-possession basis and deserved to win, but Hardaway had 4 second-half 3s and Burke made a game-winning strip of Craft. That was one of those games Michigan won that year because defenses are generally OK giving up 25-footers, and Michigan made enough of them. (It was also the loudest and best atmosphere I saw at Crisler.)

[Dr. Strangelove]

Rutgers is fucking horrible. They were blown out by St. Peter's who is 2-5