B1G/NCAA basketball

[The Oracle]

And that should/better be happening, like, this year and beyond.

[iam416]

He achieved exactly in one tournament. He underachieved in one tournament. And, if you want to count the big 10 v 7 upset, he overachieved in two tournaments.

He was staring at a 4-4 record with 5 minutes left against KU in a game they lose 90% time, IMO. Fortunately, Trey Burke and KU rescued the game.

But, hey, M should win be a lock to get to the FF with such a brilliant tourney coach as Bielein.

[iam416]

That's a pretty poor metric.

That's fair. I also don't think the seed you play is a good metric. The metric that matters is performance. For example, Matta's team that lost to Florida didn't beat a single higher seed and, arguably, simply met expectations. Beilien's crappy 10 seed team beat a higher seed and arguably exceeded expectations. BFD. I'll take the absolute results all day long.

And, in that regard, in 6 seasons with M Beilein has been to a single S16. One. You can make all the excuses you want for him, but this is CBB -- you can rebuild quickly. I can point to lots of coaches who made more S16 in their first 6 years at a school. I'll give the talent excuse a year, maybe two at tops.

[iam416]

Incidentally, this is some sort of crusade against Beilein. I just don't think of him as some sort of legendary tourney coach. I also don't really think of Thad Matta as some sort of tournament guru, mostly because he's never won the NCAA tournament. However, his performance in post-season tournaments while at Ohio State is very impressive:

NCAA (7): 17-7, 2 FFs, 3 E8s, 5 S16s.
B10 (9): 19-5. 4 Titles, 3 runner ups
NIT! (1): 5-0, Champs!!!!!!

41-12 in post-season tournament play. Also, that's 17 tournaments and he's been 1 and done twice (losing to MSU in a B10 tourney and infernal Siena in NCAA -- fuck you PJ Hill).

He also did pretty well for Butler and Xavier in four tournament appearances (winning in the first round in each and getting to E8 with X).

Nonetheless, I still think of him as a good, but not great, tournament coach. That's probably where I am with JB -- I think he's a good coach and expect that his teams will perform well in the tourney (and elsewhere, tbh).

[WM Wolverine]

JB's NCAA tourney track record looks quite good to me other than that loss to Ohio. His teams have usually played to my expectations which are lower than most here. Even in their losses, they've usually played well.

[hack]

Talent appears cranky this morning, but you just can't deny Belein. He was smart enough to recruit Trey Burke. Trey Burke developed under John Beilein. As Derrick Walton is now, and as Darius Morris did before. Beilein was one shot away with Morris from scalping Duke 3 years ago, so there's that.

I wonder about seeding this year. A few weeks ago there was that thing suggesting that Wichita State would get the top seed in the midwest in Indy, with the Big Ten conference winner at #2. I don't know if that's still the case. Wisconsin's RPI is pretty damn high. It feels like for anyone other than Wisconsin to get that #2 seed it would need to win out from here, maybe even the conference tournament.

[The Oracle]

If Michigan wins the regular season out and wins 1 in the BTT, they'll get the 2.

[hack]

You think? IMO fair is fair, and that is fair. But...

[The Oracle]

Well, I should say, IMO, they will end up a 2 seed on the S-curve, but maybe get pushed down to a #3 to keep them close to home.

They'd be 24-8 with 1 bad loss and champions of(IMO) the best conference.

[iam416]

but you just can't deny Belein

Depends on what you're denying him. He's definitely one of the better coaches in the B10 and a respectable tournament coach. Can't deny him that.

Re B10 seeding, it will be interesting (and, obviously, lots to still play out). Currently, it seems like Wisky is the best bet to get a #2.

Looking at the national landscape, I'd have the following teams as borderline locks for a top 2 seed: Florida, Wichita, Arizona, Duke (Duke should win out). If KU beats Okie State on Saturday, they're a lock. If Syracuse wins at Virginia, they're a lock. I tend to think both will end up at least a 2 either way.

I think at least one of Villanova or Creighton will get on the 2 line.

I think at least one of Louisville or Cincinnati will get on the 2 line or higher.

I think Michigan, MSU and Wisky are probably looking at 3/4s and I have no idea how it will break down. I could see it in any order.

Also, I don't think Buffalo or Milwaukee means much to either M or MSU.

[WM Wolverine]

M, Wisky & Sparty all look like 3-4 seeds to me, depending of course on how they and teams around them finish. Any one of them could be a weak 2-seed if they essentially win out.

[iam416]

Yeah, that's how I see it, too. Well, not "win out" since the BTT CG won't be considered, but there's no way, IMO, a B10 gets a #2 w/o getting to the BTT CG. And even then, I'd bet against it.

[hack]

Yet, on the other hand, this is the best conference in the country. The winner of it most surely deserves more than a #3 seed. Maybe not a #1 seed automatically every year, but...

Re denying Beilein, well, look -- MSU is one of the few teams this year that Michigan has/will play that has a comparable level of talent, and Michigan was just flat-out better in both games. I don't know how that jives with the notion that you can't find five more taletned rosters in the country top to bottom and yet Michigan isn't a lock for a #2 seed even if they win the conference. It has to be acknowledged that teams with far less talent quite often play Beilein's teams very competitively. But, still, you just can't dispute Beilein's success.

[iam416]

But, still, you just can't dispute Beilein's success

His record is what it is. I'm certainly not trying to make it something it isn't. 1 S16, 1 conference title, 0 conference tourney titles in 6 seasons at M. He will add a conference title in his 7th.

Like I said, he's one of the better coaches in the B10 and a respectable tournament coach. Can't deny him that.

[The Oracle]

Stop being so fing cranky already.