Detroit Red Wings & the NHL

[Optimus Prime]

True, and many times it tells a detailed story. Overall, I think it's (Plus/Minus) the most important stat outside of scoring. Next, to me, for a Center would be face-off wins/losses. I understand you disagree......that's fine. Anecdotaly, the Wings struggled in the Playoffs for years....for many reasons. One of those reasons was Steve Yzerman dogging it defensively. When Scotty Bowman arrived, he called out Yzerman on it, and to his credit, he changed his game. He never sniffed 50 goals again, but he won several Cups. Crosby, as I've said before, is the most talented offensive player in the game, arguably. But he plays soft defensively quite often. And outside of the caricatures of him, some deserved....others not.....that's simply a fact. You can dismiss that, but it doesn't change it.

To the causal fan, I understand why but (plus/minus) is fudnamnetialiy flawed. The NHL tracks it, therefore it must mean something and be accurate, right? I understand your comfort zone in that sense.

Truth is an "NHL" Official with a box of popcorn and an I-phone does his best to count the players #'s on the ice after each goal, 30% -40% of the time the tabulation is inaccurate, erroneous and misleading.

Shot-based metrics or Plus-Minus is really a team stat: measuring a player’s ability to some uncertain extent, but more so measuring the strength of everyone on ice– with a whole lot of random chance factored in too. I much prefer possession percentage instead of goal differential as in Corsi or Fenwick metrics.

Don't just take my word for it, I think Brian Burke perhaps said it best.

Just how “horse shit” is the NHL’s official plus-minus stat?

May 13, 2013. 8:25 pm


"A five-year study on team-based plus-minus numbers indicates it gives plus and minus marks to undeserving players at least one third of the time…
Long-time NHL executive Brian Burke has called the NHL’s official plus-minus number a “horse shit” stat.

The now venerable stat has long been the object of criticism from NHL players, coaches, general managers, reporters and, more recently, members of the advanced stats community.

One major and recurring criticism has been voiced since the stat became an official NHL number in 1967, namely that a good player who is surrounded by weak players will likely have a poor plus-minus number through little fault of his own, while a weaker player who is surrounded by strong players will have a good plus-minus number through little credit to himself.

Just how commonly does the official NHL plus -minus system award get it wrong, assigning false positives and false negatives?

In a five year study — compiled through game in, game out video analysis of every goal scored for and against the Edmonton Oilers from 2008 to 2013 — it’s apparent that on goals for, about 70 per cent of the plus marks are correctly assigned to players who make some contribution, major or minor, to the goal. But 30 per cent of the plus marks are awarded to players who make little or no contribution at all to the goal being scored.

On goals against, team derived plus-minus systems are even less fair and accurate. Half of the minus marks on goals against are handed out to players who make a major or minor mistake on the goal against, but half of the minus marks go to players who either had no impact on the play or were doing their job defensively but nonetheless are assigned a minus mark due to an erring teammate.

In the end, it’s safe to say that one third of the plus and minus marks handed out under the official plus-minus system are assigned to players who don’t deserve them, and the problem is greatest at the defensive end of the ice. This number of incorrect assignments is likely as high as 40 per cent of all plus-minus marks handed out."



http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...us-minus-stat/

[Hannibal]

Plus/minus does have its limitations, but I still do like it. It has its value. I think that it, especially, does a decent job of showing the quality of so-called "defensive forwards", which is probably the most overused term in hockey (frequently in service of someone who simply has no offensive talent).

I'm also just a big fan of playoff goal scoring. There is nothing rarer in hockey than a guy who scores goals at a higher rate in the post season than in the regular season. It has been my observation that the problem with lots of offense-oriented teams is that they lose high scoring games. The problem seems to be that their scoring dries up in the post season because they don't seem to have the mentality required to score when the games are tighter and the officiating is looser. That's what always tripped up the Red Wings against mediocre teams like the Flames, Oilers, and Ducks.

[WM Wolverine]

Plus/minus has to used in the team context and in hockey you have to take into your shifts and what lines you're playing with...

You can't compare Crosby to Zetterberg, there are too many variables but you can compare Zetterberg to his teammates. It's like the wins statistic for pitchers, it works most the time but if you're an excellent pitcher but has little defense behind you and a lineup that can't score runs, you're not going to win games.

[WingsFan]

Why is Smith even out there? Is Ian White a healthy scratch? He couldn't possibly be worse.

Yes he is, Smith did a really terrible game last night, I still like him over White though.

[madootra]

a good player who is surrounded by weak players will likely have a poor plus-minus number through little fault of his own, while a weaker player who is surrounded by strong players will have a good plus-minus number through little credit to himself.

So, which is it for Cindy? He certainly is not surrounded by weak players.......he's arguablly on the strongest top-to-bottom team in the league. And even I wouldn't
refer to him as a "weaker player". At least not seriously......maybe to get a rise out of OP. :-D


To the causal fan, I understand why but (plus/minus) is fudnamnetialiy flawed.

I am neither indicating a cause, or casual (not sure what you meant...;-)...)....I played travel hockey out of Detroit for nearly a decade, have played in leagues for nearly 40 years, and follow the game much more than any other sport. I think I know my Hockey. Plus/Minus is not, nor have I ever asserted it's a flawless stat. But, in todays game, it means something.....especially in the Playoffs. If you are a minus over the course of a series, that indicates something lacking in your performance......IMO

[Optimus Prime]

Rangers looked gased. Surprised by Boston's jump in game one. Sure they survived against Toronto but the real story was their Series meltdown against the Leafs.

[Optimus Prime]

Pens take a 2-0 series lead versus the Senators.

Pittsburgh Pens Captain, Sid-Sational was, well, sensational, hat trick.

[youtube]5_0jyAW8xFg[/youtube]

On Crosby's first goal:
Noriss Trophy winner Erik Karlsson is not slow. Karlsson is a better skater than anyone. Crosby, accelerating through the neutral zone, skated past a flat-footed Karlsson like he was part of a cone drill, a "Swedish Pylon" if you will.

"I think he might've been getting ready to pinch or close his gap a little bit. He's a pretty good skater," Crosby said. "I might've got lucky that I was able to catch a stride there."

It was not luck. Ask Jarome Iginla. "There's lots of guys that can skate really fast without the puck, but he doesn't slow down with the puck at all. He's fast without it, obviously, but when he has it, he's just as fast," Iginla said. "Most guys, they start coming into traffic, they have to slow up, look around—you just slow up, just a bit. But he doesn't slow up at all, and that's a big part of what makes him great."

Although the Kid missed the start of the playoffs with a broken jaw, he's tied Pat Sharp for the Playoff Goal Scoring lead.

Shift-by-shift........

[madootra]

Great game, no doubt.

Karlsson played horribly......and the Sens just can't seem to get it going.

[Optimus Prime]

Karlsson is not 100% his achilles injury lingers IMO. Expect the Sens to push back in G3 or it will be a short series.

Same for Wings today at 1pm, their best offensive players need to play offense and not play so much defense .

[madootra]

They need to play better in their zone......hopefully Smith will see liitle ice time, and they stop simply throwing it up ice. Puck control, stay outta the box, and yes, some goal scoring are all needed.

[Optimus Prime]

Sure, Detroit’s top two forward lines combined for 22 hits and six blocked shots. While the talking heads will rave on about how this displays the will and character of the group, it also tells us another significant point of interest.

It means that they hardly ever had the puck. These guys get paid to create, not to create havoc, but it’s difficult to do the former when you spend the entire might chasing the game.

In the end, the Onion Savages playing at home, too much depth, firing on all cylinders the entire season, too much to overtake.

[madootra]

It means that they hardly ever had the puck. These guys get paid to create, not to create havoc, but it’s difficult to do the former when you spend the entire might chasing the game.

Spot on. And it started in the defensive zone. No clean outlet passes, just dumps. It was embarrassing to watch. The Chicago forecheck was tenacious, but we had plenty of unforced errors.
To be honest....I'm not expecting much of a change today.

[madootra]

This is why I'm not much of a gambler........I would've been wrong about Detroit! Very solid ass-kicking of the Hawks today. Great transition play, puck control, and the big names stepped up....as did the kids. Brendan Smith gets the GWG? Are you fucking kidding me?

The best part? Zetterberg DOMINATING Toews.

[Tony G]

Now the tough part, holding serve at home with the Hawk's ears pinned back.

[Optimus Prime]

Damn, unreal . *uck Hawks!