UM Football Recruiting - by WM Wolverine

[SeattleLionsFan]

If Hoke is a good coach, he will hit 9-4. Good college coaches get good results quickly. And what's more, I don't think the cupboard is as bare as people claim.

If Hoke is a decent not good coach, I think 7 wins is more likely.

[SeattleLionsFan]

If Hoke is a good coach, he will hit 9-4. Good college coaches get good results quickly. And what's more, I don't think the cupboard is as bare as people claim.

If Hoke is a decent not good coach, I think 7 wins is more likely.

[Jamie H]

I don't think anyone thinks the offensive cubboard is bare. The question is, can the defense hold anyone good under 30?

[SeattleLionsFan]

I don't think the Defensive cupboard is that bare either.

Rich rods classes were generally well regarded. There is talent. It's just a matter of whether Hoke and Mattison can get them to produce.

At least IMO

[Rocky Bleier]

Rodriguez recruited MAC level defensive players. Nine wins ain't happening.

[SeattleLionsFan]

If Rodriguez recruited Mac level defensive players how did he get seven wins? And why can't we expect two more wins from the coach that loses what? 2 starters??

[Jamie H]

No offense, but did you watch the games? He got 7 wins by beating mediocre to bad teams by scoring a lot of points. The defense rarely factored into the wins.

The team only won 2 games that they didn't score at least 30 points in. When they scored 30 points they were 5-1. When they scored less than 30 they were 2-5.

That doesn't say anything good about the defense.

Last year Michigan's defense set a school record, giving up 458 points. That broke the record of the 2008 team (347 points) by more than 100 points. Before Rodriguez showed up, Michigan had never even come close to giving up 300 points in a season, though they do play more games now than they did 30 years ago.

[Jeff Buchanan]

If Rodriguez recruited Mac level defensive players how did he get seven wins? And why can't we expect two more wins from the coach that loses what? 2 starters??

Rodriguez failed to win a single game in three years against a quality B10 opponent. He went undefeated in OOC games twice. However, he failed to capitalize on those victories; team blew up, got worse looked like shit on defense in both 2009 and 10. If I recall correctly, OOC teams that M beat up on in those years had a combined overall win % below .500 .... IOW Rodriguez beat MAC level teams with what most certainly can be characterized as MAC level talent.

Moving on. Hanni, I don't think your view that M's OL manhandled anyone, especially osu, can be supported (maybe I misread this). Do you remember the famous picture of osu's DL being into the backfield before a single offensive linemen made contact? That happened a lot. What saved M was DRob's feet and as the season wore on and he got banged up that advantage slipped away.

M football during the RR era sucked ..... and I don't think you are trying to sugar coat this. Part of the reason it sucked is because of a lack of talent and just as importantly an inability of RR's defensive staff to develop what little talent was on that side of the ball.

I liked your numbers for Mattison and other teams who had poor defenses and made dramatic improvements after bringing on new coaches after firing old ones. That's encouraging. But for talent to be developed to a level to compete at the top of the B10 in 2011, and I think Mattison knows how to do that and hired people on his staff that he knows know how to do that, you have to have talent.

WM does a good job of showing why its just not there on defense, won't likely be there until the next two recruiting classes are well on their way (2014). The lack of talent (bad match-ups) has the potential to cause problems on the defensive side of the ball. I expect problems getting pressure up front and giving up big plays because of bad match-ups ..... something opposing oc's will expose as M moves thorugh the 2011 season.

Hanni, I also think you are overestimating the OL. Yes, they bring back a lot of talent and experience but it's undersized and optimized, skill set wise, for a different scheme. Its not that they are bad players it is that they aren't big enough (I could change my mind when I see some real weights in the fall) to be the kind of road graders for a power run game in the B10. Now, its true we really don't know how Borges will scheme except from what he did at SDSU (which was impressive) but making this change, if I understand what Hoke and Borges would like to do with M football, this is a big deal.

If anyone can advance an argument that it's not, I'd like to hear it ..... and that's not throwing the gauntlet down, its a serious question because I may be missing something.

[SeattleLionsFan]

Jamie. I did watch the games and thought they stunk. HOWEVER, I'm of the mind that it wasn't a talent issue. It was a coaching issue and a youth issue.

Theyve gotten older and gotten a new coach.

And as far as getting seven wins against shitty teams. The same shitty teams are on this years schedule.

For the record, I don't mean to come off as a richrod apologist, I am just questioning why Hoke isn't expected to do more than RichRod given that he has more experienced players and isn't a shitty coach.

[Chuck Mallory]

1) the players may be experienced on d but they are still returning from the worst d in M history. 2) the change in the offense must complicate things. Too many factors keep me from being very optimistic. I am very optimistic for the future however.

[WM Wolverine]

I thought my last post was a bit encouraging about the defense; I don't see M's defense at the bottom of the B10, probably not middle of the pack but it should hold up (say hold opponents to < 30 points) against most offenses except for the elite offenses (ND, MSU, NW (imo is underrated; take the over on their win total)) which M doesn't face too many of. I do see more talent on that side of the ball than I've seen at anytime in the last three seasons; a lot of it is too young to have too high of expectations:

*Courtney Avery, Blake Countess, Marvin Robinson, Carvin Johnson, Jibreel Black, Jake Ryan & Josh Furman...

These guys are mostly true sophomores that would've redshirted if they had talent in front of them, the other are a couple redshirt freshman and one true freshman... Some of the talent is undersized:

*Craig Roh, Cameron Gordon (for his SAM position, which a lot of the time is a DE position; a position a long ways from his safety position he started last year) and most of the above 2nd/1st year players could be included here. The two mentioned here are 3rd year players and still growing...

Some of M's talent on defense aren't very athletic but get the most out of their ability:

*Jordan Kovacs & Kenny Demens

Some are just the opposite:

*William Campbell

Most all of the above are a step above the talent level the typical B10 defenses not named OSU, PSU or Neb would usually have on their roster. As my mantra was pretty much all the last couple seasons; the talent was either not there in '08/'09 or too young ('10). Most all of the above are potentially average B10 caliber or better and doesn't include senior studs Mike Martin, Ryan Van Bergen & Troy Woolfolk that will be missed greatly after they graduate...

I'm not overly enamored with the talent on M's defense but there is talent there to field a solid-to-good defense down the line. It won't challenge to be the B10's best anytime soon as the elite talent just isn't there but there is hope that it can be good enough if M's offense is as potentially as good as I think it could be; potentially one of the best in the country...

Oregon's fans before last season likely questioned their defensive talent and for good reason, it wasn't the level of other top 10 teams but they made it to the NT game without a blemish.

[SeattleLionsFan]

A) yeah the return from a terrible d. But the fact that they return at all should make the d better than the shit storm RR put-on the field.

B) if it takes three years to teach a guy your offense it's too damn complicated. And if you can't adjust the o to the talent, you aren't a great coach. (which isn't to mean that Hoke won't have success. )

[WM Wolverine]

9-4 sounds about right to me, the top of the B10 will be really crowded with a lot of 9-to-11 win teams; Wisky, OSU, Neb, PSU and even MSU... NW could be right there if their schedule is favorable, they were pretty competitive last season and return pretty much everyone.

[Chuck Mallory]

I'd take 8-5

[SeattleLionsFan]

I agree WM.