UM Football Recruiting - by WM Wolverine

[Mike]

On a MACRO LEVEL they absolutely do predict success.

[iam416]

Pretty indisputable.

Rudolph is definitely M. The class is going to be pretty deep. Probably end up a little lacking in terms of high ceiling guys, but tons of kids who can start for M down the road.

[Whitley]

On a MACRO LEVEL they absolutely do predict success.

Yep they give a team a higher margin of error

[lineygoblue]

Yeah, I remember the recruiting services, and how hot they were on TCU being in the NC game back in 2020 when most of those kids were recruited ... Some probably predicted the win over Michigan in the semifinals...

[Mike]

Just remember: For every 1 TCU, there are 3 of Georgia, Alabama, and OSU. The talent game was on full display when Georgia played Michigan and TCU.

[Mike]

Or to put it another way, is it just crazy randomness that the Big Ten East has won all 9 of the East-West title games? Of course not.

[lineygoblue]

Just remember: For every 1 TCU, there are 3 of Georgia, Alabama, and OSU. The talent game was on full display when Georgia played Michigan and TCU.

I get that, Mike. Those three have pretty much cornered the market on CFB talent. I'll concede that all day long.

What I refuse to concede, is that the recruiting services are an accurate predictor of who will win NC's. I'm not picking on AA, but how many times has Alabama had the #1 recruiting class in the country in the last 15 years? How many times have they won the NC in those 15 years?

Its certainly not 15 NC's.

All I'm saying is recruiting is like playing craps. The people around the table can make a ton of dough as long as the shooter doesn't roll a seven. But, once that seven comes up, the house picks up all the chips. Good teams can roll sevens. (craps)

[iam416]

You don’t mean accurate, you mean perfect. And that, again, is so intentionally stupid it’s astounding

Thr recruiting rankings predict UAT will be really good every year. They are. They predict OSU will be really good every year. They predict M would go 11-1 last year.

There is certainly “degree of accuracy”. They are not 100%. No one is arguing that, as has been repeatedly said. But they are accurate. No one can dispute that even though you do. Unless they are being willfully stupid. Which is what’s going on.

[AlabamAlum]

I get that, Mike. Those three have pretty much cornered the market on CFB talent. I'll concede that all day long.

What I refuse to concede, is that the recruiting services are an accurate predictor of who will win NC's. I'm not picking on AA, but how many times has Alabama had the #1 recruiting class in the country in the last 15 years? How many times have they won the NC in those 15 years?

Its certainly not 15 NC's.

All I'm saying is recruiting is like playing craps. The people around the table can make a ton of dough as long as the shooter doesn't roll a seven. But, once that seven comes up, the house picks up all the chips. Good teams can roll sevens. (craps)

Saban has won 7 national championships. 6 at Alabama. He has been in the playoffs or championship game several other times than those championships. Certainly, by far, the most of any modern coach. It’s not even close. The reason is recruiting. Not his X’s and O’s.

With recruiting, being #1 isn’t an end all, it helps greatly though. Being consistently in the top 5 or 10 is paramount.

[iam416]

The last I saw, a 3* is about three times as likely to get drafted as a 2*…a 4* is about 3X a 3* and a 5* is about 2.5X a 4*.

A 5* is about EIGHT times more likely to get drafted than a 3*.

[Tom W]

Recruiting can be a reasonably accurate indicator of how you perform in the regular season- i.e. how you can get to Conference championships and the CFB playoff. They aren't so good, nor should they be, on predicting how a team will approach anything after that. Whether or not a team has a plan on what to do between playing your archrivals and the CFB Championship is really independent of the talent that was recruited.

[iam416]

It’s pretty fair to argue over whether they’re 70% accurate or 90% accurate or whatever. It’s pretty reasonable to say, yeah, I think they’re accurate but not as accurate as you do. It’s willfully stupid to say they are not accurate.

[Hannibal]

I'm glad that we got the kid that MSU wanted, but lots of Michigan leans have trended away or committed elsewhere lately.

We're clearly fucking ourselves with NIL. Back when paying the kids was cheating there was at least a technical argument against doing it, but now there is nothing of that nature. But of course, we have to do things the "right way", even though the rules have been changed so that the "right way" is the way that everyone else but us is doing it now.

It's just infuriating as hell that we shoot ourselves in the foot this way. At this point, there's nothing stopping us from having a Top 3 class in football that we aren't imposing ourselves.

[Hannibal]

This will still be a great class -- easily Top 10 I'm guessing, but a major university with a large and affluent alumni base like Michigan, coming off of back-to-back CFP appearances should be able to dial in a Top 3 class with the momentum that we've got on the field, or at least should never drop below 15 like we did in 2023.

[Hannibal]

Speaking of disappointments though. heh heh. Let's hope that this continues....


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