UM Football Recruiting - by WM Wolverine

[iam416]

HARBAUGH!!!!'s first two classes were aided by (a) an NJ connection for a group of players led by Partridge; and then (b) a stellar in-state class. The latter doesn't happen often. The former can still happen, but Partridge is probably far enough removed from the NJ scene to have kids in his pocket. Those two classes also had huge numbers.

I think there is absolutely no evidence that Harbaugh thinks he can win at the elite level without scaling up recruiting to the war-machine level the others are at. I think there IS plenty of evidence that he'll never get there

Agree on the first part. HARBAUGH!!!!'s statement is exactly what you say when you didn't land any of your top 100 targets. You champion what you have, and in this case they don't have the elite talent they had the last two cycles. But, there's absolutely no reason why they can't get there. In fact, with 2 top 50 caliber players already on board for 2019 I think he's well on is way to putting together a class more comparable to his first two. And I guarantee you HARBAUGH!!!! thinks he can build an elite class.

Ultimately, Hanni is right -- it's about winning. He can still get this 2019/2020 kids, but he needs to win if he wants to consistently challenge for a top 5 class.

And one quick comment on Clemson -- recruiting is as much about who you take as who you miss on. It's way more catastrophic to chase a kid, think he's the answer and have him crap out. It's way better to miss on a player, IMO. Clemson has a stunning record with "elite" recruits not merely panning out -- being solid multiple-year starters -- but actually being hellraising elite players. It's absolutely remarkable what they do with their 5*/high 4* kids. Wilkins and Lawrence, e.g., can make the entire defense look good (they have other players, too). Hyatt (with some help from Watson) can make an OL with at least 2 glaring holes functional (last year).

Go back and look at Clemson's high end recruits as opposed to even Alabama and especially Ohio State. They always seem to cash. Heh.

Whereas, e.g., you think Kalis will be awesome and a few others and you cast your lot with them. OSU has had some similar issues with top 100 OL just not delivering.

[iam416]

It should also be noted, again, that the B10 East is the deepest of deep ends in CFB at the moment. Penn State is not going away. Ohio State is not going away. M is not going away. And, much to the chagrin of folks here, HARBAUGH!!!! has not killed off Sparty -- they're not going away.

So -- about Wisconsin -- yeah, they can recruit like they do and win -- in the shallow end. If they were in the East I think they finish 3rd at best. Fuck, last season they finished 11-3. Lost at home to OSU, at M and in the CG to Penn State. Otherwise, 11-0. So, schedule OoC meh and play hot fucking garbage West teams and, sure, you can win with a very good coach and program players. You bring that weak shit to the Deep End and it's Foster Farms Bowl city.

[froot loops]

Great point on the elite recruits. They better pan out or you are screwed unless you have 20 elite recruits. When you get those guys you are going to play them, it really isn't a meritocracy there. If you have a bunch of pretty good 3 stars at a position, you have a meritocracy there. Sometimes coaching up a player is more about getting reps in practice than anything.

[iam416]

It affect the whole way you view that position. If you get Rashan Gary you still want more hell-raising DTs, but maybe you're more willing to take a flier because you know you have Gary.

And you're right -- I think it's generally harder to "process" elite kids. But I still think the bigger point is that if a kid turns out to be a dud, then that's a roster spot. And also, Clemson 5* kids = first round picks, it seems.

Incidentally, congrats on Barnett. I assume that means Dobbs is in tow, too. Nice in-state backbone for the 2019 class you have working there! Also -- the two Pick Central kids you got for this year's class -- ballers. Hated it.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Hack, talent ..... I think that's a fair read on how Harbaugh sees the 2018 class. Obviously, he's not going to say we just can't get the elite kids.

I also think he is very sensitive to kids playing him, looking for the love, reaping some benefits, whatever. I don't think he wants to play those games and may back off a top 100 recruit he might have been in on. The mutual interest declines.

We're not going to know if that is going on or not but I do think, even though your points are both well taken, that it's in play. What's the impact either way?

talent, that's a great point on Clemson hitting on their bets with 5* recruits. Kalis is a great example of a bust; you know the names of the players osu has had busts on, I don't, but I appreciate your honest evaluation about the impact.

For M, fans have yet to see HARBAUGH!!! missing on a 5*, going for a diamond in the rough kind of recruit in the same position and turning him into a "hellraising elite" player that is going to go to the NFL in the 1st Round. For me, I think the odds are very unfavorable for him to do that and I suspect there are some facts out there to support that view.

We're about to see if he can. M was in on 5* DE Eyabi Anoma and once it was clear he was going to Alabama, and that was days before his announcement, JH brings in a German Dude who does't play football but he's "talented." TE, Catch/Blocky type Slot receiver, Ben VanSumerin is another example. WR Ronnie Bell, when he surely signs in 2018 because the NCAA told him he can't sign another LOI till then, is another one.

......and yes, the getting reps thing Froot brings up is going to be particularly important for these three guys. To me, they either contribute in their second year or they'll be an example of flyers that didn't match the hype they generated when it was discovered they were in the 2018 class. So, it seems to me there is a test of JH's ability to scout talent and develop it coming up .......

...... and I can't remember names of any flyers JH brought in in year one or two that ought to be contributing now if they were as good as JH and his staff thought they would be. By extension, the view that he'd rather take a flyer, or is satisfied with a flyer if he thinks he's being played, that an elite recruit that he perceives doesn't have the character he wants and seeks in his players.

[hack]

Mo Hurst is about to get drafted in the first round. He's played three of his four years of eligibility under Harbaugh.

Khaleke Hudson probably isn't as good as his accolades just yet, but he was three-star who turned into a starter as a true sophomore and looks like a potential high-round draft pick.

Karan Higdon was a three-star who looks like he could be an all-conference feature back with some NFL potential.

Sean McKeon as a true sophmore displayed a whole lot of potential as well for being an unheralded three-star.

If Nicholas Petit-Frere comes, that's a heck of an elite recruit at the position of most need.

Again, Aubrey Solomon was exactly the kind of recruit you think he lacks the appetite to deal with, but the facts say otherwise.

All of which is to say, well, come on already. It's really not hard at all to find plenty of examples of players for which the outcomes challenge the theories you're adopting here. I think you're running on feelingsball here.

[Rocky Bleier]

Maurice Hurst was considered a 3-star by some. He's now a fifth year player who didn't really dominate until year 4. I don't think it's terrible to take some players and give them time to develop. You just have to shut out the squawking fans for a couple of years until you get a deeper roster. Then you continually reload.

[Da Geezer]

Talent: Do I recall correctly that you said that OSU's 2-deep was peopled by all top 100 recruits?

[Jeff Buchanan]

Maurice Hurst was considered a 3-star by some. He's now a fifth year player who didn't really dominate until year 4. I don't think it's terrible to take some players and give them time to develop. You just have to shut out the squawking fans for a couple of years until you get a deeper roster. Then you continually reload.

I don't think it is either. I'd call Harbaugh's willingness, in fact a penchant, to take flyers and let them compete for starting positions an admirable trait. As you say, that approach can build depth. It also fosters healthy competition for starting positions.

I just can't get away from the reality that elite players that do pan-out and are impactfull on the field and early in their college careers are difference makers in the chase to the CFPs on a season by season basis. If JH is sacrificing signing them over questions he might have about their character or motivation for playing football in college, I'd say that's noble but he's not going to win the big games by doing that.

I still believe, from what I think I know about Jim Harbaugh, his background and what probably shapes his thinking, he does not embrace, what most of us consider, this reality. That view of JH shapes my view of how he might interact with elite recruits looking for love and all that term implies. i.e., he might sign the right flyer with the right blend of desire and skills over an established elite player who thinks he's doing M a favor by signing and/or has no intention of doing anything else while at M than auditioning for the NFL.

Now, suggesting we can identify behaviors that conclusively say he backs off elite recruits for character issues that he deems disqualifying is, admittedly, a tenuous suggestion. It is feelings ball suggesting this. That's OK. Season's over. It's that time of the year.

[Rocky Bleier]

I finally understand your position... I assume you're talking about 5-star kids, because Harbaugh has signed a bunch of 4-stars in the last 3 years. Rashan Gary, Donovan Peoples Jones, and Aubrey Solomon were the only 5-stars.

I would also like to see more 5-star players on the roster. Alabama, OSU, and Clemson compete for national championships because they get a lot of them. But I don't think Harbaugh turned away any kids of that caliber this season because they had Malik McDowell type character. I think he took what he could get, which was baffling to me when looking at last year's NFL draft. I certainly expected more.

Hoke recruited well, but his players had a sense of entitlement - so said players after he was fired. I like that no matter who is on Harbaugh's roster you don't get a job because of your last name or your star ranking, but I don't think he'll back off elite recruits during recruiting. I think it's pretty clear to all the he means what he says about meritocracy, so recruits should know what they're getting into if they sign with Michigan.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yeah, agree with all of that.

I think we're down to hair-splitting here. So, we're both talking about a 5* that M is in on, comes in for an official and leaves the impression he's entitled, doing M a favor by signing. Looking for some love from M.

Time goes on in the recruiting process. Mutual interests declines. The reason for that is a perception on the part of coaching staff that regardless of this guy's ability to contribute right away, probably be an impact player, JH prefers the guy who may not be as skilled but has the character he's looking for.

I think that happens. I have no factual basis to make that claim. Pure feelingsball.

[Rocky Bleier]

I remember Bo saying that the type of players who took money or other inducements could not be counted on when the going got tough. Maybe JH has that same philosophy whether they're looking for money or guarantees.

[Cody_Russell]

Maybe JH has that same philosophy whether they're looking for money or guarantees.

This philosophy hasn?t worked in important games.

[Rocky Bleier]

Ever? Which ones?

[Jeff Buchanan]

I can think of at least a dozen reasons for Harbaugh's 5 losses that I'd list ahead of that one, Cody.