UM Football Recruiting - by WM Wolverine

[Hannibal]

Here is mgoblog's depth chart by class:

http://mgoblog.com/content/michigan-depth-chart-class-0

If I'm doing my math right, 11 underclassmen need to go before next year if this class is going to get to 25. Who will those guys be? You've got the following guys eligible to not ask back for a fifth year:

Drake Johnson
Darboh
Chesson
Magnuson
Kalis
Braden
Bars
Henry
Glasgow (or you take away his scollie)
Wormley
Strobel
Gant
Jeremy Clark
Richardson

You do have a few candidates in there. Richardson, Bars, and Strobel. Guys who are buried on relatively decent parts of the depth chart. But I wouldn't count on all three of them going. Let's say that the coaches don't invite back two of them.

Add in two QBs, and that gets you up to four. Two is the max that we will lose. It might be one or possibly zero.

There are reportedly a few medical redshirts on the way. Let's say that gets you up to seven.

That leaves you with at least four more guys who need to be culled from the program. I doubt you would want to try and take away a schollie from a walk-on contributor like Glasgow. Harbaugh will undoubtedly run off some guys, but we have seen many times that coaches are as likely to run off talented guys as they are to run off untalented guys. Those five players could be extras, or they could be guys that we really need. I wouldn't want to lose Ben Braden or Amara Darboh as senior transfers, for sure, and I wouldn't want Jabrill Peppers or Mason Cole to decide that they wouldn't mind spending a redshirt year somewhere else.

[iam416]

If I had to guess, M will not sign at least two of the "diamonds in the rough" that are current pledges.

So, they probably have Terrance Davis, Devin Bush and Kareem locked up. Those are three 4* players. Upshur is obviously very much in play, though not a lock at this point. As is Ahmir Mitchell.

Gary and Kelly are less probable than not. I think it's M vs South for Gary and I just think M is behind on Kelly.

Then I think they also get Tony Butler (I doubt OSU offers).

So, let's say they get Upshur and Mitchell plus the other 3. That's 5 more 4* kids. Butler is a solid 3* CB. That's 6. I assume they're getting that other kid from Florida to along with Bush and Mettellus. That's 7. That puts them at 23 kids with a 0/11/10/2 breakdown. And then they chase Gary and Kelly (and anyone else who pops up on the radar). And they'll lose 1-3 current commits.

That's a solid top 15 class.

[Mackenzie]

Maybe we will get some attrition through the coaching ranks. There are a lot of reputations on line with this hire. Well kinda. Anyway, JH has got to be doing this with approval from relevant coaching staff. Right? So, either they are not concerned and are "in" with the plan, or some may think it's a pretty foolish idea and choose to defect. Doubt that will happen but JH must have the backing of his staff otherwise the approach even makes less sense. Not sure we can do much except to trust JH's vision but count me in as one who is nervous as hell about it.

[hack]

With the recent commits, are the rumours of a few silent commits still there? Maybe JH knows something we don't about Gary or Kelly. Dunno. Overall I agree that this is just a little weird and uncomfortable right now, but it's not as if Harbaugh doesn't have the track record and hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt. If you go back to his recruiting for his dad at Western Kentucky, he's been in the recruiting game for close to 20 years now save for his 4 in SF. He's not new at this. I too wish we had some high-ranked recruits to provide that security blanket we all need as Michigan fans traumatized by the recent past, but we just don't yet. At least with Bredeson there's one. We're just gonna have to sit tight and trust that Harbaugh's track record of excellence as a football lifer isn't going to suddenly end here now.

[iam416]

In a vacuum, his recruiting is fine. He'll have a top 15 class. It's not a superstar effort, but it's perfectly acceptable. But in context, HARBAUGH! Savior + Keeping Up With Joneses = Angst (for some).

[Da Geezer]

I agree Hack. The anxiety also has roots in Ohio having a great recruiting year following their NC and MSU having the best recruiting year in my memory. But the cupboard is bare. Hoke had well regarded classes, but it is 8-5-1-1-1 in terms of projected B10 All-Americans (4 deep) with UM having none. Who is UM's best player? MVP? And JH has had all spring to really see what he has on the team.

I hope he runs off a lot of the dead weight, and I suspect Harding will be the first of the verbals to decommit. I think there will be at least two more.

The most important recruit this year for UM was Jim Harbaugh.

[Rocky Bleier]

What a bizarre class. But it is consistent with Harbaugh's days at Stanford.

Here's the 2008 Andrew Luck class. It was ranked 45th in the nation:

http://stanford.247sports.com/Season/2008-Football/Commits

The 2009 class was ranked 18th in the nation:

http://stanford.247sports.com/Season/2009-Football/Commits

[iam416]

What's interesting, and entirely predictable, about those classes is that the players who turned out best from those classes were, by and large, the players rated the highest. And, of course, they had Andrew Luck.

[iam416]

A stat that probably only interests me, Ohio has 48 kids (counting IMG Ohioans) currently pledged to P5 teams with at least 3 more who will eventually do so. Of those 48, none are M commits. How often does M sign a recruiting class with zero Ohio kids in it? Tony Butler seems like to commit, so I guess that would be one. I suppose if they were really interested in Prince Sammons they would have a shot there, too.

[entropy]

talent.. there is regionalism.. a 4 star kid in kansas my only get 3 stars because of the camps he attends. and kids mature at different ages too.. late bloomers are usually missed.

I follow more on who is offering and recruiting the kid than stars.... and if they fit ones scheme.

[iam416]

I agree with also considering the offer sheet.

I disagree with respect to regionalism. There are a few kids in the boondocks who may not camp and thus may not get noticed. But by and large Kansas is for shit when it comes to producing football players.

For the 2011-13 NFL drafts, 47.3% of the 763 players selected came from California, Texas, Florida, Georgia and Ohio. In 2013, Kansas had 15 players in the NFL. Nebraska had 9. There just aren't a lot of 4* kids in those states, period.

Anyway, my point has never been that the rankings are perfect. My point is that recruiting rankings are reasonably accurate. From 2009-13 there were 160 first round picks. using Rivals ratings, 29 of those picks were 5* players. 64 were 4* players. 43 were 3* players. 23 were 2* or unranked.

During that same span roughly 1.5% of all players signing with FBS schools were 5* kids. Roughly 12% were 4* players. The rest were 3* players or lower.

So, 5* players were 12x more likely to get drafted in the first round than a random distribution, which assumes recruiting rankings don't matter at all (18% of the first rounds picks vs 1.5% of total recruits). 4* kids were 3.3x more likely to get drafted in the first round. 3* were probably under 1x. And 2* and unrated kids have to be around 0.3 or 0.4x.

So, ummm, yeah....I'll take a blind class of 4* kids over a blind class of 3* kids every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

[WM Wolverine]

"My only criticism with JH is that some of his more recent verbals are totally low-hanging fruit that you could slow play until January and still land them."

^
This

[hack]

Yeah, that's very reasonable.

[Hannibal]

In a vacuum, his recruiting is fine. He'll have a top 15 class. It's not a superstar effort, but it's perfectly acceptable. But in context, HARBAUGH! Savior + Keeping Up With Joneses = Angst (for some).

Yeah that's the thing. As a follow-up to a Top 10 class this would be fine. As a follow-up to the poor class of 2015 and the class of 2014 (which tanked at the end), it's problematic. There are some terrifying holes developing on the depth chart that are reminiscent of the RichRod years. Some of Harbaugh's 2* guys aren't even going to get the chance to redshirt. The class of 2016 has to produce a lot of starters as sophomores/redshirt FR.

[Da Geezer]

Sure, I absolutely agree with Talent about regionalism. Along with the five states he lists, I think that it should be noted that Mississippi produces more D-1 talent per capita, with LA second.

And this is a cultural thing. Ask a random person from Ohio what he is doing on a Friday night in October, and ask the same of a person in New York, and the Ohio guy is more likely to be going to a HS football game. HS football is just more important in the South and in Ohio (which is more like GA or AL when it comes to HS football) than it is in IL or MI.

Talent confirms why satellite camps are so logical. Go to where the players are. I think it is an honest question whether the recruiting services give enough credit for the competition that a kid faces. Would you rather have a 5* from Kansas or a 4* from Ohio. I'd take the Ohio kid.

I wonder how differently UM's recruiting would have been had that assistant from UK who specialized in Ohio recruiting joined the UM staff.