UM Football Recruiting - by WM Wolverine

[Hannibal]

It's a really tough schedule for a team of Michigan's caliber. OSU is unwinnable. MSU we should be big underdogs. Utah is probably a ranked team on the road with a QB taking his first snap in a Michigan uniform, having arrived on campus only five weeks earlier. Winning just one out of those three and losing the other two by single digits would be an accomplishment. BYU is a very tough out and, in some years, better than that. We have a few games against teams like Maryland, Penn State, and Minny, who were equal to or better than us last year that are on the road. Oregon State may or may not be a bowl team. This team was too shitty last year to chalk up anything other than UNLV as an easy win.

[Hannibal]

We need Gary. Badly. We have gone full Alabama in an attempt to land him. And we need to flip at least one out of Hill/Hayes. Preferably both. We need a lot. The 2016 class has to be great.

[Da Geezer]

Dang, finally all those folks who thought we had an easy schedule this year have LOOKED at the schedule. Google PSU's schedule. Then take a look at Arizona's OOC schedule last year. UM has a very tough schedule, and then the following year has MSU and OSU away. 8-4 would be fine this year. Al McGuire said your first two games should be at home against Cupcake and East Cupcake.

Now, in an utterly unrelated topic, those of you who watch the NFL draft tonight, notice how when it is the Lions pick, there will be commercials and then an interview with someone from one of the "chosen teams". Maybe I am reaching out to BuckLionsFan on this, but it happens every year, and if BLF is reading this, we need you back on this forum, guy.

[Jeff Buchanan]

........Yeah, I really disagree with this. I think, by and large, you give way too much credence to puffery....whether it be positive (the summer camps) or potentially negative (see above). Recruiting is about relationships (assuming you have a brand-name program). JH will either convince kids that his staff is the right one for them or he won't. 8-4 won't affect that, IMO. ........ I think, as I suggested, you're projecting your anxieties into recruiting. You have gads at stake. But I don't think 8-4 will be a negative in recruiting at all. I also see the same thing with your overall assessment that he has to go better than 8-4.

Look, 8-4 is +3. That's a nice improvement. That's really nice in the context of an f'n shitshow at QB. The only people who will be disappointed with 8-4 are the HARBAUGH!!!! -- Alexander the Great -- NFL MACHINE!!!! -- contingent of M fans expecting him to go 10-2 (or better) and cure cancer with his tears. No one outside of AA thinks M will go 10-2........3rd or worse in the B10 East and most, if not all, will have them outside the top 25. Those are the expectations from the non HARBAUGH!!!!! people around the country. I mean, your team was, err, not good last season. Really, really not good. That's the starting point for JH expectations.

So when you talk about proper contexts -- and there are two separate questions -- I think you need to take into account the context of the M homer and the rest of America. JH isn't going to be excoriated for going 8-4. He'll likely be viewed positively as getting M back on track. A strong, positive narrative. But, it will dent the Messiah-view a touch.

On your a first point... Value of puffery. My view is that in the world of perception, something I think you generally don't like to operate, preferring instead to stick to the facts on the ground, I think you underestimate its impact.

The Bush 2 administration and the press that was manipulated into reporting on the weapons of mass destruction that Saddam was ready to unleash created a PERCEPTION that allowed the US to embark upon a devastating engagement in the Middle East without congressional or public outcry that has had lasting negative implications two decades later.

However, I will grant you have a much greater insight into the recruiting side of things, how it works and what kids are interested in. The facts on the ground. Bottom line you and I are not going to agree on this. We'll see how recruiting plays out if M has something less than a HARBAUGH! appropriate season.

On your second point ...... 8-4 is good enough. I really disagree with this. The facts point to 8-4, sure. Harbaugh has to do better for the reasons I stated in my original post. He has to reach in there and deliver some mojo that's gonna turn the two losses you see creating 8-4 into two wins that creates 10-2. To me, it's that simple although we could discuss in detail what he needs to do to get 10 wins and the obstacles he faces in doing it ..... Another discussion.

On your third point ...... I don't give a crap what the rest of America thinks with regard to Predicting M's wins and losses. Harbaugh's job is to shape what America thinks about M football by using HARBAUGH to get to 10-2. While I'm a homer, my homerism has nothing to do with that. M along with Harbaugh and recruiting rises or falls on JH's capacity to harness. HARBAUGH and do what RR or Hoke couldn't do.

WIN.

[iam416]

Well, my point was in direct response to this:

The sports press will hang Harbaugh out to dry with criticism centered around, he can't recruit and he should have stayed in the NFL. That's what the kids will hear, that's the mind-set they will bring to any visit, that's what M's coaches will have to overcome if Harbaugh does not perform well ..... 8-4 with losses in the opener and to either or both MSU or osu is not doing that, IMO.

You also state, directly, that you think I underestimate the value of "puffery" and the "world of perception." So, I'm more than little confused by your statement that:

I don't give a crap what the rest of America thinks with regard to Predicting M's wins and losses

I mean, clearly you do. Or at least did in an earlier post and even in the earlier paragraph in the same post. My point was directly in response to your assertion about the press going after JH. They won't. Their perception of where M is and what M should be this season is considerably less optimistic than yours.

But, hey, I hope you're right because I don't see M going 10-2 or better. I really, really hope you're right. Unfortunately, you're not. You have, as you often do, cast things in the most dire, apocalyptic terms. Those types of terms are rarely appropriate and I certainly don't think it the case here.

[lineygoblue]

a QB taking his first snap in a Michigan uniform, having arrived on campus only five weeks earlier.

If this is referring to Rudock, he's going to be in A2 in May. He had to graduate from Iowa, (I believe they've had the ceremony already) first, but after that he said he was going directly to Ann Arbor.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I can understand your confusion. Perhaps I wasn't clear.

The facts on the ground support the perception that M will go 8-4. If that perception of M as a not very good team persists, and it will if M goes 8-4, it's going to hurt recruiting. I understand you don't think it will. We disagree.

JH can change that perception. He's already taken steps to do that. Now he has to deliver. As a side note I've already pointed out, this is a risky approach because it sets him and M football up for a fall that the press and other coaches will magnify to M's disadvantage in recruiting.

Harbaugh has to harness HARBAUGH! and turn two of the perceived losses into wins to create 10-2 and in so doing change the perception of the target audience, recruits. I realize that in so doing, he's actually changing the facts on the ground.

I think the point I was trying to make and did a poor job of doing it is that JH has to overcome the perception that he can't put lipstick on a pig and change the perception that it is still a pig.

How does he turn 8-4 into 10-2? By turning two losses into two wins. How does he do that? Harness HARBAUGH!

It's hard to define what that is but let me try: in the business world think of guys like Lee Iococa, Jeff Bezoz, David Branson. Larger than life describes all of them. They achieved remarkable success because observers perceived they could and then they delivered.

Harbaugh has to lead like these guys turning what looks to be impossible into reality. It's the X-factor at work. He has it. When it's working, it has the possibility of turning a perceived circumstance into something different. In this case 10-2.

[froot loops]

In the long run, it won't matter one bit if he goes 8-4 or 10-2. It will matter to you fans a lot more than him. You've been impatient for a winner for nearly a decade, it's understandable.

[Jeff Buchanan]

In the long run, it won't matter one bit if he goes 8-4 or 10-2. It will matter to you fans a lot more than him. You've been impatient for a winner for nearly a decade, it's understandable.

I really don't get this argument not that I don't agree with you that a better record probably means more to M fans than to the outside world. Don't tell me though that the outside world, at least the one that includes MSU fans, doesn't hope JH muddles along rather than dominates. That's a motivational bias that may be playing in your case.

It's been pointed out to me by an avid sports fan, not at all invested in M football, that the Saban situation re coming in and recruiting a top 5 class is quite different than the chore JH faces. His argument for that notes that first, Saban recruited in the SEC, an infinitely more fertile recruiting ground than the one Harbaugh faces. Same for Peety at USC.

I acknowledge, and so did he, that the meyer circumstance was similar and what he achieved at osu in recruiting and on the field was a remarkable achievement. It sets the bar pretty high for JH/M.

The bottom line that this uninvested observer and myself agree on is that it is more important in all respects for Harbaugh to lead M to 10-2 than it was for all the rest we are talking about here to achieve early success. The reason for that is that it is PERCEIVED by a large number of dissimilar constituencies that he can and should be able to do this. A failure to reach that goal is going to cost Harbaugh and M for a number of reasons, not the least of which is Harbaugh's personality and now he has behaved on the nations sports scene already.

Second, urbz certainly did not face the reconstruction project at osu that Harbaugh faces at M. Both Saban and Carroll did face similar reconstruction obstacles and over came them in short notice but then they had built in recruiting advantages the HARBUAGH does not have.

[froot loops]

I really don't get this argument not that I don't agree with you that a better record probably means more to M fans than to the outside world. Don't tell me though that the outside world, at least the one that includes MSU fans, doesn't hope JH muddles along rather than dominates. That's a motivational bias that may be playing in your case.

The only bias that may be playing in my case and many MSU fans is we saw a vast reconstruction project with Dantonio. Sure you'll have a lot of MSU fans who want him to muddle along, that's natural. We are rivals, we don't want you to do good anymore than you want MSU to do good.

But to my point, MSU got pretty good pretty quick. They muddled to a 7-5 record his first year and really didn't set the world on fire in recruiting. They had a nice 9-4 season and then a bad 6-7 year. I understand the perceived urgency, in Dantonio's first year they started off 4-2 but had two big ten losses. Indiana was a "must win" game. They won, but it really wasn't a must win, but I remember hearing that.

Harbaugh doesn't have near the amount of a reconstruction project. He has more advantages. He's not going to have to make do with some MAC level players. 8-4 is not a bad season and it doesn't matter long term. Brady Hoke set the world on fire his first year and it had little long term effects.

Harbaugh will be fine, he would be fine even if he chunked it and went .500.

[jaadam4]

Thank goodness. Jimmy Ballgame can breathe a huge sigh of relief now that an MSU troll said that he will be fine after some "fun facts" regarding a school no one will give a shit about once order is restored this year.

[WM Wolverine]

Updates to recruits on my recruiting board, just offensively...

*Brad Hawkins WR, 4*, NJ (Camden) - South Carolina seems to be a strong favorite but M is very much in on him.

*Desmond Fitzpatrick WR, 3+*, MI (Farmington) - Most believe its a matter of time before he decides for the Wolverines. I see it happening quite soon...

*Donnie Corley WR 4*, MI (Detroit MLK) - Doesn't look like its going to happen for the Wolverines. It's a very good talent that's going to end up at one of M's rivals, Sparty, Ohio or maybe the Domers. Probably won't stay on my recruiting board much longer if he doesn't show some interest in M.

*Donald Stewart WR 3*, NJ (Paramus) - M is his only 'big' offer and they are way out in front, at least till any other major offers come in.

*Naseir Upshur TE 4*, PA (Philly) - UM vs UM battle. The competition is likely the Canes but this recruitment could last well into the Fall and new competition will likely spring up.

*Ben Bredeson OT 5*, WI - Likely staying in-state for the Badgers but M is going to get a good chance to impress him. Believe he rescheduled a visit for later this month, I could see a decision for him shortly thereafter.

*Michael Jordan OT 4*, MI (Plymouth) - Insiders still really like where M stands with him. He's going to or recently has visit M's rivals (Sparty and Ohio) who are M's biggest and imo only competition for him...

*Thiyo Lukusa OG 4*, MI (Traverse City) - Yet another battle between M, Ohio and Sparty. This one is currently favoring M but he's going to take visits in June where we'll have a better idea where he's leaning. Was a heavy M lean early, under Hoke.

*Terrance Davis OG 4*, MD - He's spoken very highly of M with a recent visit to Ann Arbor and likely to make a return visit in June. M has a good chance to steal him from one of their new rivals, Maryland.

*Michael Onwenu OG 4*, MI (Cass Tech) - He's M's to lose, only significant competition at the present time is Ohio.

*Quinn Nordin K 3*, MI (Rockford) - I'd be very surprised if he went anywhere else.

-

M is planing to take 4 OL and has Erik Swenson OT 4*(IL) committed. It appears they are in very good shape with most of their top targets and should fill at least 3 of their 4 spots with Plan A type targets... M hasn't offered a ton of WR targets, and after taking two in '15 (Brian Cole and Grant Perry), I'd expect M takes 2 receivers in the '16 class and puts more numbers into the defensive side of the ball.

[Da Geezer]

great update WM, again I say thank you.

[WM Wolverine]

QB and RB are both filled for the class in Peters, Falcon & Davis.

[Hannibal]

Got to land all of our favorites and pull a couple of upsets out of that group.