UM Football Recruiting - by WM Wolverine

[Tslisher]

Back to talents original question. I expect Harbaugh to pull in a top 20 class, but not top 10 this year. We'll get our share of 4*'s but pulling in 5* players is going to take more proof that wins are on the agenda. For the season, I'm expecting 8-4 or 9-3 with a split on the MSU and OSU games. The talent gap is high with OSU right now, but the game is in Ann Arbor so I give us a chance, but won't be surprised at a loss.

However, next year, with proof the program is on the rise, the recruiting target needs to be a top 10 class minimum. We've spotted Urbz too much of a lead on the talent side and can't afford to stay behind in the talent race.

That said, there is talent on the team. Hoke didn't leave the cupboard bare. JH has quite a bit to work with and I've got hopes with the proper coaching and motivation this team might beat expectations. He's addressed the biggest holes (QB, Kicker etc.) The defense could be special. The O - line will be improved. If we can find a running back, we've got a good chance.

[The Oracle]

So you think there's no shot with Gary or Kelly?

[lineygoblue]

I know it gets a big horse laugh around here, but I still think Jake Rudock makes a significant difference in the offense this year. I also believe the OL will be improved simply by the upgrade in position coaching, and another year of experience.

On defense we didn't even have Jabril Peppers last year. His career hasn't even started yet. I think he is being hugely overlooked, and that's okay with me.

I know, .. optimism not allowed ... please excuse me.

[The Oracle]

searching for delete button...

[lineygoblue]

Say what you want, Oracle.

I'm totally harmless.

[The Oracle]

I was looking for the delete button due to positivity.

[WM Wolverine]

Like talent said, this was a 5-win team that was consistently outplayed last season (losses to Ohio, Sparty, Utah, Rutgers, Maryland, Minnesota and ND) by most everyone other than MAC caliber opponents... The wins were lowly App State, Indiana, Penn State, MiamiOhio and M was very fortunate to beat a lousy Northwestern...

I thought my 9-3 was a bit optimistic till I've heard so many here state the likelihood of 10-2, 11-1 is.... The schedule at this point looks softer (Sparty, Ohio @ home, BYU essentially replaces ND)...

I am optimistic about M's likelihood for improvement in '15, they have a ton of room from which to improve, especially offensively. Gardner neutralized a ton of potential drives by himself and made the offense work less than the sum of its parts. His 20+ turnovers had a great deal to do with M's losses looking worse than they should be. A game manager that knows when to take a sack, throw the ball away would've improved the '14 Wolverines offense dramatically... The offensive line imo was starting to gel in November after the Spartan game. I saw a lot less defenders in the backfield, Gardner had more time to make a bad decision and some small holes for the running backs to not notice...

The talent is there at the skill positions; Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson are 4th year Jr's and there is good underclass talent ready to play in Mo Ways, Freddy Canteen, Brian Cole, Da'Mario Jones. WR won't be a position of strength and it's lacking gamebreakers but it looks like a solid group of talent that won't be a weakness...

It's tougher to judge the running back situation and separate it from the issues the offensive line has had. The talent is there; two 5-stars in Derrick Green & Ty Isaac, 4* De'Veon Smith, Drake Johnson looked as good as any of them to me when healthy, 4* Wyatt Shallman and incoming true freshman 4* Karan Higdon... This group will be running behind an offensive line with essentially everyone returning, plus Harbaugh will have them running behind a FB often and using tight ends more.

[froot loops]

Just having a consistent offensive philosophy will help. They really haven't had one in a long time.

[iam416]

Upon a quick re-reading, I also agree with SLF on this year's schedule versus 2011's. WTF, SLF, you been drinking smart juice or something?

M's OoC this season is stronger. Utah is better than ND, IMO, or at least as good. Oregon State, BYU and UNLV are better than WMU, EMU and SDS. In conference, Michigan State was the best team the played in 2011. Ohio State is waaaaay better than that team and this year's MSU should be better than that team. So, OSU/MSU >>>> MSU/UNL. I think the Goofers are better the 3rd best B10 team they played in 2011. And PSU/Rutgers/Maryland are capable of equaling the general meh of the rest of it.

I'd rate this schedule considerably harder. The OoC is harder. The B10 is just better. I mean, it was awful in 2011 (and 2012). It's a lot more comparable to the 2014 schedule. Utah and Notre Dame are comparable road games. BYU and Utah could eb comparable home games. You get MSU/OSU at home as opposed to away, so that's an uptick. The Goofers should be solid and that one is now away. The rest is pretty comparable.

I think it far more accurate to say M is basically running back their 2014 schedule this year than it is to compare this year to 2011. And that's why I have hard time with the 10-2 (or better) stuff.

[hack]

I've just taken another look, and, ok -- SLF I concede. Is true.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Look, this whole question about performance of the M football program is being discussed in two completely separate dimensions.

There is the one of perceptions then the one of actual record.

My post was with regard to perceptions and its affect on recruiting. I don't believe, like talent dose, that Harbaugh can "crush it" with 8-4, nor losses to Utah in the opener or losses to MSU, or osu.

The sports press will hang Harbaugh out to dry with criticism centered around, he can't recruit and he should have stayed in the NFL. That's what the kids will hear, that's the mind-set they will bring to any visit, that's what M's coaches will have to overcome if Harbaugh does not perform well ..... 8-4 with losses in the opener and to either or both MSU or osu is not doing that, IMO.

Predicting the actual won/lost record is another matter. It is a much more objectively based prediction and based on thee performance of the players in 2014. Just looking at that, 8-4 is definitely the most likely outcome.

But JH has to do more than that, has to, and not just for recruiting. He has to silence the doubters, the ones in the inner circle, who may have advanced a "you'll be sorry" argument and if Harbaugh goes 8-4 will be saying, "I told you so" given his antics and occasionally psycho behavior. He has to solidify the base of his legacy and rally support. You don't do that with 8-4 and losses to your rival at home in this day and age when the life of coaches at elite programs with demanding alums is 2-3y.

So, yeah, the bar is high but lets make sure we are talking about that bar in the proper context.

[iam416]

I don't believe, like talent dose, that Harbaugh can "crush it" with 8-4

I believe a great recruiter can crush it. I'm not certain JH is that. I lean that way, but recruiting is a separate skillset from regular football stuff.

The sports press will hang Harbaugh out to dry with criticism centered around, he can't recruit and he should have stayed in the NFL. That's what the kids will hear, that's the mind-set they will bring to any visit, that's what M's coaches will have to overcome if Harbaugh does not perform well

Yeah, I really disagree with this. I think, by and large, you give way too much credence to puffery....whether it be positive (the summer camps) or potentially negative (see above). Recruiting is about relationships (assuming you have a brand-name program). JH will either convince kids that his staff is the right one for them or he won't. 8-4 won't affect that, IMO.

As an example, Tressel crushed his first full cycle recruiting class. They following year, with a national title under his belt, his class was meh...as was the following year's class. I could go on and on with examples.

I think, as I suggested, you're projecting your anxieties into recruiting. You have gads at stake. But I don't think 8-4 will be a negative in recruiting at all. I also see the same thing with your overall assessment that he has to go better than 8-4.

Look, 8-4 is +3. That's a nice improvement. That's really nice in the context of an f'n shitshow at QB. The only people who will be disappointed with 8-4 are the HARBAUGH!!!! -- Alexander the Great -- NFL MACHINE!!!! -- contingent of M fans expecting him to go 10-2 (or better) and cure cancer with his tears. No one outside of AA thinks M will go 10-2. Every preseason magazine will have them 3rd or worse in the B10 East and most, if not all, will have them outside the top 25. Those are the expectations from the non HARBAUGH!!!!! people around the country. I mean, your team was, err, not good last season. Really, really not good. That's the starting point for JH expectations.

So when you talk about proper contexts -- and there are two separate questions -- I think you need to take into account the context of the M homer and the rest of America. JH isn't going to be excoriated for going 8-4. He'll likely be viewed positively as getting M back on track. A strong, positive narrative. But, it will dent the Messiah-view a touch.

[hack]

Very well could be. Then again last year's coaching staff was bad to a ridiculous extent. Michigan put a guy in charge who never should have been. There will be some extra upside. We'll see. Noone expected 11-2 from Hoke either.

[iam416]

M fans understand their roster better than indifferent media-types and other CFB fans. So, perhaps your insight will prove correct.

However, I'm merely positing what I think to be the general view of M -- the general public perception of M. It's not a trainwreck, but it's not good. There's lots of work to do. As I said, I think you'll see this perception in spades this summer with expectations/predictions by national types. And against those expectations, 8-4 is perfectly acceptable. Things change in the 2nd and 3rd years and expectations ramp up. Properly so.

[Tslisher]

So you think there's no shot with Gary or Kelly?

I think we probably get one of them. It just seems that a lot of people assumed HARBAUGH means we immediately are on the radar with every 5* in the country. I think we need to prove something to most of them that don't have a connection already with M. So if we get one of them in this class, I think that's a success. After a good season next year, we should start getting a few more looks.

Todd