UM Football Recruiting - by WM Wolverine

[hack]

Only you're dumb enough to be surprised.

(Sorry, mods. If Talent snaps back at me I guess just delete the thread.)

[Hannibal]

In some ways Harbaugh is at a disadvantage to those other guys, but he has advantages too. He is a bigger "name" than Saban was when he returned to college since Saban didn't find success at the NFL level. He's arguably the biggest "name" hire in college football of my lifetime. Off the top of my head, I can't think of anyone who was successful in the NFL and left to coach college football in the prime of his career. He's got a pretty favorable depth chart too -- not a lot of competition for a stud 5* guy outside of QB. Add in #1 in all time wins, biggest stadium, name recognition, fight song, helmets, traditions etc. It's Michigan, people.

[WM Wolverine]

M isn't competing with Ohio in recruiting just like M isn't competing against Bama, USC, LSU or Florida State either...

In time, I hope M will consistently haul in #5-#10 recruiting classes like Georgia, Auburn, ND, Texas, A&M, usually do.

[Jeff Buchanan]

SLF:

Definitely -- he gets at least his class and, IMO, next class...unless this year's class is a dud.

Serious question:

What's the measuring stick for M in recruiting THIS year? Is it ok to give away another year to UFM in terms of talent? Or do you need to start matching OSU this cycle? Built into the question, I guess, is your own thoughts on the player development greatness of HARBAUGH! and such, but I think it's an interest query........ if you think HARBAUGH is materially better than UFM in development, gameday stuff, etc, then the talent gap becomes less important........So, what's the threshold for a successful 2016 class?

I'm not a recruiting expert. I rely on reports from other web sites and WM here. Those are the experts. But, over the last 4-5y, I know one obvious thing. Talent (stars) trumps just about everything. While development and game day stuff is important, it's impact on wins comes in second to what kind of talent you recruit. This is obvious to most here. It took me a while to believe that.

You recruit a bunch of 3* and low 4* and coach them up in your system like RR seemed to do pretty well before coming to M and, to a certain extent, while he was at M, you're going to get pushed around (think Wisky) or worse, blown out (pick one) by teams that have better talent AND that talent being suitably developed. Think of Hoke's clown show performance against Alabama in the kick-off classic after leading M to 11-2 record and a bowl win in his first season and then getting exposed like a HS JV team against The Nick in Dallas. Ugh.

For me, there are two interrelated bars; First: do what it takes to return Michigan football to competitiveness in the 2015 season. Second, build on a good 2015 performance to get a top 10 class for 2016.

I'm gonna give JH a pass for the 2015 class. But when the NLIs are in for 2016, JH better bring in a top 10 ranked class. Weird stuff happens between now and February, 2016. I'll wait until then to be concerned about JH's ability to recruit. Too soon to tell right now.

M football is going to be what it is going to be (marginally good but not elite despite HARBAUGH!) and probably realistically, not in the mix for the CFP. I'd put that at 10/1 right now based solely on the roster. But the expectation should be 10 wins, a NYD bowl and beating MSU and osu. At least that's where I stand on that subject.

Harbaugh HAS to be competitive in 2015 or he's not going to get the talent he needs to get a good 20016 class to work with and to be a solid football team in 2016, 17 and beyond ...... the two situations are inseparable. Where development and coaching comes in is right now and how well he does this in overcoming the talent gap he has.

Like I said at the very start of and then during RR's tenure, he has to lead M to victories against the traditional rivals despite obstacles. There were a few exciting games - victories - but overall, RR never delivered and it was all a downhill slide for him. Hoke made things worse from an on-field performance standpoint but he did NOT leave the cupboard bare. Harbaugh has to deliver despite the obstacles he faces with the talent he's got on the roster.

2016 Recruiting and 2015 performance are inseparable because, well, obviously. Harbaugh has done a couple of things on both fronts. For 2016 Recruiting, he's significantly elevated M's profile (The Swarm and all the press he's getting over the controversy it has caused).

We won't know how that pays off until much later and it is highly dependent on how M performs in 2015. What he has done in that regard is assemble possibly one of the best CFB coaching staffs there is based on resumes. It's clear to me he is pushing that advantage in recruitment endeavors underway right now.

Admittedly, who cares about that. Everyone looks good on paper. Making a big splash in your space is great but unless you deliver product, you'll just look silly.

But he has definitely done a good job in elevating M's profile on the national scene, advantaging himself and the program by emphasizing what natural advantages M does have and of insuring that what meager talent he does have RIGHT NOW, can potentially be developed well enough by himself and his coaching staff.

It remains to be seen if this bunch can put a 10 win season together, beat both MSU and osu and get to a NYD bowl. But I'll be disappointed and skeptical if he can't ..... 2015 on-field performance is the first bar. 2016 NSD should take care of itself after that hurdle is crossed.

[SeattleLionsFan]

Lol at using Wiscy as the example of getting pushed around by a team of higher ranked recruits.

[The Oracle]

Top 10 recruiting classes should be the baseline from the '16 class on.

[Ghengis Jon]

For me, there are two interrelated bars; First: do what it takes to return Michigan football to competitiveness in the 2015 season. Second, build on a good 2015 performance to get a top 10 class for 2016.


We won't know how that pays off until much later and it is highly dependent on how M performs in 2015. What he has done in that regard is assemble possibly one of the best CFB coaching staffs there is based on resumes. It's clear to me he is pushing that advantage in recruitment endeavors underway right now.

I think you hit a bulls-eye on that Jeff. I fully expect 2015 to be a very good year for UM, not CFP, but very good nonetheless. A lot, I think, will hinge on the Utah game. A good opponent, right out of the gate, no cupcake bullshit. If we win that one, Katie bar the door. The home opener will set the new attendance record and the stadium will be louder than it has in decades. When they announce JH's name "in his first year as head coach..." the roar will be heard in East Lansing. And I expect the team to feed off of that energy and enthusiasm.

Lets be fair. Hoke did not leave Harbaugh with an empty cupboard. The defense, barring significant injuries, should be stellar. Issues like QB, TE, and kickers are being addressed immediately. JH's intensity and drive to win, is something Hoke (sadly) lacked. Much like Woody and Bo, we now have a coach with WILL. Losing valiantly is no longer acceptable.

What impresses me a lot is the low attrition rate. When Bo came on board, a lot of players bailed out. We aren't seeing that. I perceive players are buying in. Not that Brandon bullshit "All in for Michigan", but a team in need of strong leadership has found it. How that translates on the field remains to be seen, but I'm very optimistic.

IF we beat Utah, 10-2 is a real possibility imho.

[The Oracle]

+1 on pretty much all of that, especially the last part.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Lol at using Wiscy as the example of getting pushed around by a team of higher ranked recruits.

Well, yes .... I don't know the numbers but I suspect, talent wise, wisky was on a par with M the year that against RR they threw, what, 3 passes? The 3rd quarter was an incredible disaster for M football. The whole game was really.

The point here is that the guy we were calling a bone headed idiot took a decent Wisky team into Ann Arbor and just demolished Michigan's cadre of 3*s . To me, that was one of, if not the worst, M humiliation in my memory.

[SeattleLionsFan]

Wisconsin has not had a class ranked above 35 in the past 10 years. The only team that might be a better example of recruiting the right guys and developing them might be MSU.

Interestingly the opposite of that is probably Hoke's Michigan.

[Hannibal]

Talent is there for 10-2. Big question is how much damage Hoke did to them and how quickly it can be repaired. I'm bracing for a year 1 letdown, hopefully followed by a huge 2016.

[hack]

IF we beat Utah, 10-2 is a real possibility imho.

I think you've got to move that up to 11-1. I can't see him losing both. I could easily see a backslide in '16 though.

[Jeff Buchanan]

True.

I might "hate" Dantonio and his tribe of nerdowells as much as I "hated" Woody, his f'ing arrogance and that he was really a good football coach.

Dantonio has some of Woody's (and Bo's) characteristics.

Its one reason why MSU has risen to NEAR the top of CFB.

It's gonna be fun taking that POS and little brother down.

[hack]

Yes. And Beilein has to fucking do his part too.

[iam416]

I see I've inspired a rare cogent, interesting discussion with a well-timed, germane question. Par for the course.

What he has done in that regard is assemble possibly one of the best CFB coaching staffs there is based on resumes. It's clear to me he is pushing that advantage in recruitment endeavors underway right now

Out of curiosity, Buchanan, how do you figure? I mean, the clearest metric of pushing a huge recruiting advantage or doing something hugely innovative and attractive to recruits is, well, RECRUITS. It strikes me that your statement is an article of faith at the moment. As WM noted, there isn't even a ton of interest in M from top 150 kids.

So, I guess you can talk about this buzz and assert (on another thread) that recruits are more interested in "ExposureU" than the CFP championship, but I'm not sure that's consistent with the facts on the ground. Any of them.