UM Football Recruiting - by WM Wolverine

[Jeff Buchanan]

It was probably Martin. I think it was during his tenure that the PAC10 and Big announced more team match-ups with home and home agreements.

Utah was a middling PAC team after urbz left (damn good before that), if I remember then, but has gotten some great players and plays physical football; even though they are a spready, little guys in space type offense they are still a ufm designed power run team.

[Jeff Buchanan]

That Utah game will be big for the program. Thursday night and a national audience tuning in to see Harbaugh and what he has accomplished.

It's HUGE.

Considering the gauntlet that Jimmy Ball Game has thrown down and all the sticking out of his chin he's done in the last couple of months, the press is going to be enthralled with a Michigan loss.

JH has got to understand this and if he treats this like any kind of "not important OOC contest, just another game to warm up for conference play," coaches and players are going to plan, prepare and, on game day, play like it. They'll lose.

Harbaugh has the rep to prepare teams for big games and manage wins. Whether he can do that with what he's got on the roster (this ain't the 49'ers or the Cardinal having experienced his leadership for 3 years) is debatable The preponderance of the facts point towards a close loss.

..... and since it was being mentioned, HARBAUGH! has to beat both MSU and osu in Ann Arbor to advance his cred. A split keeps fans and the football community wondering. Two losses and he's going to look silly just like he should.

[froot loops]

Beating MSU and OSU in Ann Arbor is a tall task. You can definitely beat MSU, although I think they are going to be a lot better than I thought they would be 2 months ago. OSU is another story, they are going to on another level and Urban Meyer will be even more insufferable. That second half stretch of OSU's year was a precursor of things to come.

[iam416]

This analysis fascinates me.

I would posit a couple things.

(1) JH doesn't need to win big in 2015 to recruit well; his team just can't be awful. A great recruiter at a brand name school can recruit without particularly positive results. Saban crushed it after going 7-6 and losing to f'n Monroe. Tressel's best class was the 2002 class after a 7-5 season where the offense mostly unwatchable. So, is JH a great recruiter or not?

(2) A single game at the beginning of the season is rarely some sort of Waterloo-type game. Fundamentally, water finds its level--you are who you are, etc. Did VT go on a rampage after beating OSU? How about that great Texas A&M team that romped past South Carolina to open the season? How about 2009 M when Tater Tot salvaged the ND game and M started 5-0? Or how how about 2013 M when ND refused to cover Jeremy Gallon? 2003 M went out to Oregon and lost in typically maddening style on the West Coast but won the B10. The aforementioned Buckeyes bounced back from VT. A single outcome isn't going to change the talent on the team. Furthermore, if JH is who you think he is, a loss isn't going to have some sort of devastating effect on the team--he won't let it happen.

So, it doesn't make any rational sense to cue up the Utah game as some sort of watershed game. The only way it makes sense is to take a step back and appreciate the audience. You boys are so emotionally invested in HARBAUGH!!!! that some of you seem to fear even the slightest chink in the armor as some sort of personal affront or perhaps even worse, a sign that he might be who you thought he is. Further maybe some of you see HARBAUGH!!! as the last chance to rescue and restore M football, and if he fails it all fails. So any misstep is amplified to the Nth degree by the stakes. Whatever the reason, it's fascinating to watch. And will remain so.

Finally, I don't the get the Utah-MSU-OSU season analysis. I think it considerably more likely that M loses more games to the rest of its schedule than it wins against those 3 teams. M played 4 good or better teams last season and lost 42-28, 35-11, 30-14 and 31-0. They weren't really close. So, I'm not sure there's some sort of massive well of untapped talent there to rescue the day.

Anywho, I think it's important that M go 3-1 (or better) in OoC and 5-3 in conference. That seems realistic to me. And if JH is a great recruiter he can easily work with 8-4, especially a competitive 8-4.

[hack]

Agree with Froot and Jeff. Ultimately, the thing is that this year's schedule is relatively easy -- the rivalry games at home and a winnable road game as the signature OOC contest. Since he's Jim Harbaugh for chrissakes there's a side of me that expects 12-0, because you don't lose at home to your rivals and Utah isn't THAT great. It's just a nice solid program. But that's one side of me. I'd say right now that 10-2 is 50% likely. 30% chance of 11-1, and 20% for 9-3.

I know that's serious expectations. But when you have a combination of Michigan, elite coach and solid players, the expectations should be serious.

[SeattleLionsFan]

There's more than a 0% chance that they beat OSU. But it's less than 1% IMO.

Harbaugh is HARBAUGH! But the team is bad. Some of you guys put it at the feet of Gardner but go watch the Minnesota game. The team was really bad last year.

[iam416]

They gave up 450 yards to Champagne Super Nova. Seriously. Rutgers was beaten to a bloody pulp by Wisky, Ohio State and Michigan State. OSU beat them 56-17 and I was left wondering how it was only 56-17. Hell, even UNL whipped them. And thing is, the Rutgers game wasn't some sort of huge fluke. They were evenly matched teams, roughly.

So, yeah...I'm inclined to SLF's line of thinking, but they clearly have a puncher's chance against Ohio State...20-25% or so, IMO.

But I really think they'll have a number of other tough games.

[hack]

OK but under Hokattison for chrissakes the defense went from clown show to pretty damn good in 2011. One thing there is the power of believing in your coaches and schemes. That and luck got Hoke to 11-2. Once his luck ran out and he was exposed the players didn't have that same belief in the coaching staff that leads to complete buy-in and running through a wall in order to win, etc. But if Hoke can engineer a turnaround like that then, well, with Harbaugh now...

IMO I do think the schedule is about those three games. This is Harbaugh and he's got talent to work with. He should win those games.

[SeattleLionsFan]

11-2 only took the most improbable come from behind victory, a super soft schedule, and an incompetent OSU coaching staff.

Even then they lost to MSU by 2 tds and Iowa. I hope that you are right but right now MSU and OSU are in a different class, sad as that is to say. Michigan should compete with everyone else on the schedule, but isn't so much better that they won't lose one or two.

[hack]

VT and ND were insane luck. But the schedule is similar in its softness. Harbaugh, so I expect not to lose any outside those three. Maybe 1. IMO if I were betting I think it's 10-2 with OSU and Utah being the losses.

[SeattleLionsFan]

Not even close to the same in softness. For one, OSU is the best team in the country and not a .500 shitshow. And second MSU is coming off of two back to back top 5 finishes in the country. They did not play anyone as good as this years OSU and MSU teams then.

It's two games sure but it's two probable losses not on the 11-2 schedule

[hack]

I guess I don't mean it specifically as regards those two teams. But there's no ND, to start, and that's always a taxing game. There's no Wisconsin or Nebraska. I guess, looking, Minnesota shouldn't be taken as lightly as usual. That's true.

[Ghengis Jon]

Michigan HAS to perform this season. Devin Bush, linebacker recruit, was very impressed with his Michigan visit. His last line, (from the Det News), says it all about how the UM program is currently perceived.

"I was with everybody -- Coach Mattison, Coach Partridge, Coach Harbaugh," Bush said. "(Coach Harbaugh) is a player's coach. He's the truth. You can tell he knows how to win and how to run a program. He's done it countless times … brought teams back from the dead."

FROM THE DEAD??? Ouch. We have to be more than just competitive this year if we are going to return to the upper tier of recruiting classes.

[SeattleLionsFan]

There's no crappy ND team to beat in a miracle, but there is a good Utah team on the road.

And no doubt Michigan has to do well, I'm just saying that 8-4 is improvement, especially if they show improvement over the course of the season.

[froot loops]

That win you guys had against State with Hoke was particularly irksome. It irked me.