UM Football Recruiting - by WM Wolverine

[iam416]

Buchanan:

Last season M played 14 games and has better roster in 13 of them. That’s probably true of 2022 except 12. Basically, in there. Last 28 games, the better roster won 25 times.

25 for 28. So, it’s actually really easy to explain M’s record.

So, as with anything on a bell curve or a predictive model, the value is greater with the greater differential. M has a way better roster than Hawaii. And it’s not just relative ranking, it’s a pure quantitative assessment. So, I mean — I didn’t look at the numbers (was M closer to OSU or TCU quantitatively?). But you’d also consider that.

In any event, roster strength would have been right on 25 of 28 for M and 23 of 26 for OSU. It’s not some sort of random shit.

[Mike]

We’re 2-0 against one team with a better roster tho!

[lineygoblue]

All I've said, and ever said about recruiting services, is that they are not the gold standard when it comes to predicting how a kid is going to perform.

Sometimes, they get it right, and then some. (Alabama and Georgia have rosters full of these)

Sometimes they undervalue (hi Aiden Hutchinson)

Sometimes, they are totally wrong. (hello Derrick Green)

Sometimes, the kid pans out good, but not great, when he should have been great. (hello Rashan Gary)

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Lord help me if I've offended anyone's fragile sensibilities.

[iam416]

So, recruiting services don't have a sterling history when predicting team success via their rankings.

Actually, they do.

Again, people dismissing recruiting rankings as “rags” or not way more right than wrong aren’t dealing with reality.

If people want to point to outliers — great. Just also acknowledge how much predictive value recruiting rankings have. Then we’re all on the same page. Some of us acknowledge both. Exceptions and the rule. Others just acknowledge the exceptions and deny the predictive rule.

[lineygoblue]

Well, I'm still going to call them recruiting rags because that's what I do. Not a single one of them gave Michigan a chance of winning a Big Ten championship based on the players they were signing back in 20, 21 and even 22. Yet, here we are, sitting on two championships in a row, twice in the playoffs, and a legit shot at a third.

But yet, no recruiting service gave Michigan a snowball's chance of getting there as recently as spring 2021. Nobody HERE gave Michigan that chance back then. And here we are.

And nobody predicted that TCU was going to be a playoff team last year, based on their recruiting. But, there they were.

Recruiting services basically tell you that Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State are going to be REALLY GOOD because they are loaded with 5 star talent.

Well, DUH. How hard must that be. As stupid as I am, I could make that prediction. Maybe I should start a recruiting service.

[iam416]

Bryce West is officially OSU. Zero surprise. I’d imagine Scott will be in pretty soon.

In the meaningless recruiting rankings, OSU is now #2.

[lineygoblue]

If it was meaningless, you'd not mention it.

It means something to you. That's fine with me.

I'll wait and see how it all plays out on the field.

[WingsFan]

West was an OSU lock, Michigan has a small chance with Scott. Both are visiting Columbus this weekend, Scott posted Go Blue! on Instagram yesterday??

Losing LB Chiles to FL sucked and was really a surprise and then DL Mayo to Clemson was salt in the wound.

Was/is looking for Michigan commit 4* DL Jerod Smith's twin brother Jacob also 4* DL commit this weekend. He's taking his time, will just have to wait - identical twins never break up (ever).

Terhyon Nichols should pick Blue tomorrow 4* DL Edge

[iam416]

M has more than a small chance with Scott.

[WingsFan]

Sam (and the rest) feel good about it, I'll believe it when it happens.

[Whitley]

Recruiting rankings are like spending money in MLB. Having a good rankings gives a team more of a margin of error but doesn't guarantee anything. TO help them achieve their potential you need a very good coaching and development staff.

Sometimes you can get a bunch of underrated players and coach them up. MSU did that under MD for several years but it is almost impossible to sustain success if you can't get at least some top talent.

[iam416]

Predictive, not definitive. And Sparty was #23 in roster talent. They weren’t #50 or something.

Baseball is a little different because you have 162 games that, by and large, eliminate luck — and then a postseason which has elements of random.

But, it’s really hard to win 92 games consistently without spending. The analysis is even stronger with soccer and, e.g., the EPL.

[AlabamAlum]

A fun exercise is to look at total team talent by year and see where the national champion fell.

https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/

[lineygoblue]

No need to even click on the link. I already know what it says.

[lineygoblue]

The recruiting news just gets worser and worser for Michigan this weekend. Today, Dominic Nichols a "4 star" DE from Maryland verbally committed to Michigan. Since he's only the 433rd ranked player in the country, and the 28th ranked EDGE player, this committment is a total joke. Nobody can win anything with players ranked that lowly by the august recruiting services, which are never wrong. Back to 5 loss suckbutt status for Michigan in 2025 and beyond.

Where are you Brady Hoke? Where are you when we need you so badly?

Oh yes, and Mayo is going elsewhere. Hopes were high for him but it was not to be. Well, because .. Michigan sucks.