UM Football Recruiting - by WM Wolverine

[The Oracle]

What's the deal with Dobbs and why doesn't the staff like him very much? His offer list is very impressive and I'd much prefer to see him not wind up at one of our competitors.

He is spot on that the staff isn't putting a priority on the back yard though.

They got 7 of the top 8 in '17, the top 3 in a terrible '18 class and the '19 class is too far away to even worry about.

[The Oracle]

Which class? 2018? No. Zero chance.

In 2019? Slight, IMO. You're in on two very good RBs, but one of them is from NC and the other is at IMG and is from Texas. I'd be very surprised if either of them played outside of the South.

Cain n crouch.

[WM Wolverine]

Crouch is a possibility, again it's far too early with most of these kids. LONG time till signing day '19. Cain is an even longer shot though he has some mutual interest...

Were either of Higdon or Evans even 4-stars when they committed?

Daniel Carter RB is a 3-star on 247 but imo ends up a top 150 overall recruit, he'll get tons of offers... Eric Gray is going to be a really good college back, no idea of M's chances with him but 247 has him in their top 100...

When M's offensive line is good enough, they'll be able to plug most any quality running back behind their QB and be able to run the ball. Of course I'd prefer a back with NFL talent but I see it far less critical than having NFL talent on the DL, OL at QB and in your defensive backfield.

[Rocky Bleier]

When M's offensive line is good enough, they'll be able to plug most any quality running back behind their QB and be able to run the ball. Of course I'd prefer a back with NFL talent but I see it far less critical than having NFL talent on the DL, OL at QB and in your defensive backfield.

Aside from the hiring of Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke and their putrid won-loss records, the biggest disappointment of the last decade has been the lack of quality O-Lineman and RBs. Those two positions were annually filled with quality players who went on to the next level. Don't know why Harbaugh hasn't been able to get a top RB.

Also, it looks like Dantonio is doing well again in Ohio. Maybe JH could try a little harder there? I thought this recruiting season would yield more fruit after sending 11 players to the NFL from last year's squad.

[The Oracle]

On another note, Scout released the 2020 top 100. Scrub Harbaughs POS ass has yet to secure ANY commits thus far. Sad!!!

[Mackenzie]

Not sure exactly how to ask this question. Are they any stats showing the relationship to how far in advance a player commits versus whether or not that player actually winds up on that team. Obviously, if a player first commits a few months before LOI signing day it's extremely likely that player will wind up on that team. But, how many kids actually wind up on the team that they committed to 2, 3, etc. years in advance of LOI signing day? How many years ahead can a play actually commit?

[Da Geezer]

Keith Washington is leaving the program. Opens another scholarship.

[Cody_Russell]

Dammit, the one time there is a good recruit from WEST Lafayette, M had to be the favorite to land him... George Karlaftis.
Of course George should be aware of the local collage team winning like 6 games in three years.

http://247sports.com/player/george-karlaftis-45572561

[The Oracle]

Some good info from a guy who has a pretty good pulse on whats up, regarding numbers:

Keith Washington is the first player to announce he is transferring since the beginning of summer camp. How many additional players will leave the program over the next twelve months as the staff obviously tries to free up scholarships in order to bring in a decent-sized freshman class? This is, obviously, a sensitive topic when it comes to speculating as to potential early departures, be they underclassmen who are not contributing or fifth year players who are not invited back. The media that covers Michigan football and those closest to the team obviously do not want to speculate with respect to future departures. This is, however, a message board and as I am neither a member of the media nor a team insider I am going to put together a “watch list” of players who could be on the “bubble” with respect to transferring or not being invited back for a fifth year.

People need to keep in mind that in this modern era of football a certain amount of player attrition is critical in order to free up scholarships for younger prospects. There is, of course, good attrition and bad attrition. A kid leaving early for the NFL is obviously bad attrition. A kid leaving because he is not contributing to the team in a major way is good attrition. BOTH types of attrition, however, have the same result in opening up additional spots to sign incoming freshmen, so even the bad attrition has some positive attributes with respect to replenishing for the future.

What really is important here is freeing up scholarships for what looks to be a very small class. With the departure of Washington I now count 11 available scholarships to give to incoming freshmen. This number does not factor in potential transfers or fifth years kids who are not going to be invited back. Moreover, it does not factor in a walk-on, such as Jordan Glasgow, eventually being put on scholarship. There is a decent possibility that Glasgow earns a scholarship, so the starting number is either 10 or 11.

I have heard that Michigan is recruiting the 2018 class based on the assumption that there will be about 20 scholarships available. That means that there must be further attrition of 9-10 players over the course of the next ten months. When perusing the list of potential early departures a few thoughts come to mind:

1. There are a lot of talented kids who may be encouraged, or at least not discouraged, to leave early. I mean, kids that would have been starters on most of the RichRod teams and some of the Hoke teams. This just attests to the fact that the talent level of the program has risen to something that we have not seen since the end of the Carr era, and it will only get stronger.

2. Losing a kid like Washington may, on the face of things, seem to hurt. After all, the staff spoke highly of him and he was competing for a starting spot. Still, he was asked to move to the safety and was not in the top four rotation at cornerback when the move was made. Moreover, three of the corners ahead of him were younger. Washington is a good player, but going forward that won’t cut it. We want to get to a level like Ohio State. That means having future first and second round kids in the secondary and replenishing those kids when they leave for the NFL with more first and second rounders. That means a lot of very good college football players will not cut it at Michigan, including some who may even be drafted down the road.

So here is a list of fifth year kids who may not be invited back:

- Jared Wangler: Just made the move to fullback. Was not about to see the field at LB. At fullback he will be behind Ben Mason among the underclassmen. Probably gone after this season

- Lawrence Marshall: Seems to be improving but giving him a fifth year with Mone, Solomon, Dwumfour and Jeter all ahead of him on the projected two-deep at DT does not make sense. Perhaps if Mone goes pro early and Marshall has a solid season things change, but I doubt it

- Maurice Ways: Just too much explosive young talent at receiver for him to get a fifth year. Would be buried on the depth chart

- Brandon Watson: Really a bubble kid. If he wins the starting job, he could be invited back. If not, one would assume that with the 3 true frosh improving and several other DBs already committed for 2018 he will not be invited back. So much depends on how he performd this season

- Drake Harris: Did he make the move to corner too late? Ceiling seems high but it is a race to get there as he currently does not project to be in the two-deep.

- Juwan Bushell-Beatty: the fact that he is even on this list just tells you how tough some of these decisions will be. Of course, there is still a good chance he actually wins a starting OT spot. But, if not, why invite him back with all those young freshmen quickly maturing, Newsome hopefully returning and whoever possibly beats him out also back (Runyan, Ulizio).

- Noah Furbush: He seemed to be our top SAM ‘backer heading into the camp but with Khaleke showing that he can be effective in both the viper and SAM role will Furbush be squeezed out. A lot depends on how Uche progresses and if one of the three talented true frosh get a look at this spot. If Uche and one of the 3 frosh impress, there may not be room for Noah


So, if all seven of these players do not return for a fifth year, Michigan will have a free scholarship count of 17 or 18. So what about the underclassmen? Here are some underclassmen who could be on the bubble:

- Devin Gill: Will only be a redshirt frosh but has been passed by on the depth chart

- Reuben Jones: Not expected to be on two deep next couple of years

- Ron Johnson: Quality kid but yet to make an impact on the field and also not on projected two deep

- Elysee Mbem-Bosse: Athletic but raw. Will he be passed up by true frosh?

- Grant Perry, Nate Johnson, Eddie McDoom: All fine talents, but when all is said and done with all the true frosh talent will all three of these kids get the minutes that they feel they deserve? I would not be surprised to see one of the three leave within the next year.

- Deron Irving Bay, Phillip Paea: Just a hunch here that at least one of the freshmen linemen will end up transferring, and these are the two we have heard the least about.

- Brandon Peters: Going out on a limb here. IF Speight comes back for a fifth year and if McCaffrey impresses more than Peters in fall and spring drills, I would not be surprised to see him transfer. I would also not be surprised to see him starting down the road. Still, he is on my watch list as a possible transfer depending on how the QB dominoes fall over the next nine months.

Of these 9 underclassmen, if just two or three transfer and if all the above fifth-year kids are not invited back, the staff will meet their target of having 20 scholarships to hand out. There are, of course, other underclassmen who could also end up leaving the program. It is just too early at this point to include them on my watch list. Also, there is the possibility of some bad attrition, with kids like Mone and Speight possibly leaving early if they have a strong 2017 campaign.

I stress that this is just a watch list. I am not predicting that any of these players will not be invited back or transfer in the next year. I am just saying that these are kids to keep an eye on.

[Da Geezer]

thanks, Oracle.

[Hannibal]

I don't think that we would cut loose guys like Watson, JBB, or Furbush if they make the two-deep this year. IMHO Wangler, Ways, Marshall, and Harris are obvious ones.

It should become apparent after this season if there are a few 2015 and 2016 guys who are unlikely to ever contribute. That's a pretty good list there. Undoubtedly, at least a couple of guys from the incoming 2017 class will wash out immediately or get home sick too.

[iam416]

A kid leaving early for the NFL is obviously bad attrition.

I actually think that is great attrition. I think a kid leaving because he can't contribute is bad attrition -- from a program-level view. Gimme a class of 20 early entrees over a class of 20 transfers.

[AlabamAlum]

Having a kid leave his junior year and be a first or second round pick -and all the pub that girs with it- does great things for recruiting down stream. Kids want to go to a place that places players in the NFL.

[The Oracle]

I think he meant bad attrition that you have to replace a great talent as opposed to a guy you get to replace on the roster with younger better talent.

[whodean]

ORACLE slinging the content!

Thanks for that, quite insightful.