UM Football Recruiting - by WM Wolverine

[iam416]

M has maybe been a step behind true elite recruiting. With Carr and even Hoke, they were top 10 classes. At various times there were recruiting machines -- Miami around the turn of the century, Carroll's USC teams, UFM Crocs and The Nick. But the M has generally been in the next group.

[Jeff Buchanan]

At this point, I'd add ufm/osu among that group you named above.

I'd also add Miami and USC (under Carroll) were dirty.

Without heaping too much praise on ufm/the nutz and Saban/Bama, those two programs are recruiting at another level altogether and I don' think there is much dirt to be found there either.

[hack]

It's hard to put a finger on any single reason for that

I think it's clear. Michigan runs a much cleaner program. Michigan has twice been in a position to win despite that, and, once, did. And then there was 06, in which it was up 3 with a few minutes left with a chance to play in the title game.

We're about to find out if Harbaugh, who has the potential to be in that truly-elite coaching group, can get to that level and stay there being the clean one of the bunch. What's great is that there's a chance.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I think it's clear. Michigan runs a much cleaner program.

You won't find me jumping on that band wagon.

We're about to find out if Harbaugh, who has the potential to be in that truly-elite coaching group, can get to that level and stay there being the clean one of the bunch. What's great is that there's a chance.

Well, yes there is a chance but I stand by what I said up thread. You can't be enamored with JH's recruiting trajectory.

You also can't dispute the facts that recruiting top talent nation wide is what obtains and sustains winning.

[The Oracle]

Well, yes there is a chance but I stand by what I said up thread. You can't be enamored with JH's recruiting trajectory.

What?

[Jeff Buchanan]

What?

2016: #8
2017: #5
2018: #19
2019: #20

http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Football/CompositeTeamRankings

The diamonds in the rough happy horseshit from mgoblog doesn't cut it when the teams you want to be able to beat to either get to your conference title game or final four/NCG games are hauling in Top 100 recruits in greater numbers than Harbaugh/M are.

IMO, these Top 100 guys can be difference makers on your team all things considered. It's that one or two plays in a game made by one of these guys that makes the difference between a win or a loss. Think about that re osu last year and FSU this year.

I'd add that when a team is loading their 2 deep with Top 100 players, like both osu and Bama are, you're asking for lot of luck and a shit ton of variance to beat them straight up.

[WM Wolverine]

OSU & Bama are beatable, it just takes a complete team, maybe some luck and some officials who make a huge mistake or three...

The '2nd tier' behind those two programs; Florida State, Clemson, Michigan in '18, USC, LSU, Oklahoma, Washington?, etc. can play those programs to a game that'll come down to the fourth quarter. A peak season for one of these programs in the 2nd tier can certainly play at the level of Bama/OSU and beat them. It just won't be easy or a regular instance.

[WM Wolverine]

Alabama has had some bad losses to teams that certainly wouldn't even be in the '2nd' tier. OSU last season imo was in a 'valley' with their youth.

[The Oracle]

2016: #8
2017: #5
2018: #19
2019: #20

http://247sports.com/Season/2016-Football/CompositeTeamRankings

The diamonds in the rough happy horseshit from mgoblog doesn't cut it when the teams you want to be able to beat to either get to your conference title game or final four/NCG games are hauling in Top 100 recruits in greater numbers than Harbaugh/M are.

IMO, these Top 100 guys can be difference makers on your team all things considered. It's that one or two plays in a game made by one of these guys that makes the difference between a win or a loss. Think about that re osu last year and FSU this year.

I'd add that when a team is loading their 2 deep with Top 100 players, like both osu and Bama are, you're asking for lot of luck and a shit ton of variance to beat them straight up.

Wtf. I never visit mgoblog, made that clear numerous times. So, you cited 2 top 10 classes, another where it's 7 months from signing day, and another where rankings aren't even available many places.

Recruiting ain't for everyone.

[WM Wolverine]

I'll do the math when i have the free time to compare M's '16, '17 & very early '18 classes to other teams who have top 10 ranked recruiting classes & Sparty. And if I'm ambitious, I'll do the B1G and add the '15 class too.

I can tell you already what I'll find; Bama & OSU are well ahead of everyone else with M is very good shape compared to everyone but those two outliers who have two of the very best coaches in CFB.

[Jeff Buchanan]

...... I can tell you already what I'll find; Bama & OSU are well ahead of everyone else with M is very good shape compared to everyone but those two outliers who have two of the very best coaches in CFB.

Those two for sure. M has to go through osu to get to the CCG. JH's record is not that good in doing that so far. One can argue it's the talent differential between those two programs that has produced JH's recrod v osu.

Beyond that and assuming M gets to the CCG and beats it's B10 West opponent, now we're dealing with the likes of Alabama in the SEC and FSU/Clemson in the ACC that would, I think, challenge M on the basis of comparative talent. I can't argue for a PAC10 or B12 team that is on that level.

I really don't care about comparing Sparty at this point; it does nothing to support the rational for the two posts I made regarding M's talent level, and what kind of challenge it is to beat elite teams that have a clear talent advantage (e.g., osu and Alabama for sure and potentially Clemson or FSU out of the ACC ).

These are the teams M has to compete with and win to have a clear shot at a national title and I still say you can't be enamored with JH's recruiting trajectory compared to those programs in obtaining that goal.

Under those circumstances it takes a good bit of luck and a lot of variance for JH to win an NC. I'd rather M's talent level be higher as that seems to me to be the most solid predictor of wins among the many predictors out there.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'll add for Oracle's benefit ........ I don't claim to know much at all about the nitty gritty of recruiting. I'm happy to leave that to those that know a whole lot more about that than I do.

What I do know are the cold, hard facts. Those facts support the view that the level of talent a team possesses, defined by the collective recruiting rankings and available to anyone that wants to study them, is highly predictive of success.

[WM Wolverine]

You need to wait till the '18 recruiting class is signed before judging the momentum on Harbaugh's recruiting. It seems some here expect Harbaugh to recruit at the level Saban/Meyer are, which took them many seasons to reach. FWIW, some are making the very opposite argument of you and looking at the interest Harbaugh has from recruits from the '19 recruiting class and believes he's going to recruit at a Saban/Urban level...

I remember everyone believed Lloyd Carr was going to have an amazing recruiting class in 2000. M had significant interest from a player or two in the top 5 of their position at every position; essentially top 50-75 overall players. M finished the bridesmaid for nearly every national recruit than eventually chose to play much closer to home. What was believed to likely be the #1/#2 recruiting class likely didn't end up top 15.

In short, M's '18 class will be good, not great, not terrible but somewhere between good to very good depending on how M finishes the class and less importantly, how M plays on the field in 2017.

[WM Wolverine]

For Harbaugh to recruit anywhere near the level of Saban/Meyer, he's going to need to start winning championships, B1G to start and National Titles. Those two are filling trophy cases nearly every season...

Harbaugh can't sell winning championships to recruits like Meyer and Saban can. Until Harbaugh wins one and it might even take two, I don't think we'll see him recruit at the level of Meyer/Saban. Personally, I don't ever expect Harbaugh to recruit at that level.

[Detroit Dan]

I think you guys are way off base.

1. MGOBLOG is a great site.
2. Relying solely on star ratings is not a good idea.
3. Looking at the long game, Harbaugh/Michigan is smart to take some year 3 prospects to go with a yearly haul of top players who are ready to contend in year 1.
4. Evaluation of college football practices is as much an art as a science. Often the difference between a 5* and a 3* is based upon factors that are not that significant in the long run.

I agree that OSU (UFM) and Alabama (Saban) are "clean", and that they are good programs and coaches. But to say the Michigan (Harbaugh) are not on a good trajectory is just wrong, in my opinion. It's much better to take the time to do things right, as opposed to desparately trying to match OSU and Alabama right away. Take some year 3 prospects, be a good coach who helps the players, enjoy yourself, and entertain the fans.