UM Football Recruiting - by WM Wolverine

[Jeff Buchanan]

........ well, they were great students in HS and checked all, what I think are ridiculously meaningless boxes of extracurricular activities, that the M admissions office seems to cherish.

[iam416]

Not sure why that is but I think some of it is attributable to M's reluctance to take risks on highly skilled HS athletes with academic or character issues. I'm well aware of how fans from other programs laugh at that notion.

I laugh at this notion. Heartily. As an exercise, take a look at the 10 kids OSU signed that finished in the top 60 in the 247 Composite and (a) determine if M offered and recruited them and, if not, (b) do they have academic or character issues.

In 2017, perhaps the elite kid with he biggest potential character issue is Micah Parsons (mostly attributed to the "crowd he runs with"). M offered and is recruiting him. And, I'm fairly certain would accept his commitment. However, they won't have that luxury.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yes, details. So what in your opinion is the reason Bo's teams were usually not quite there, Carr could not sustain elite performances while we have Woody, Carroll, meyer and Saban, among a handful of others, who were able or are able to sustain them?

[iam416]

Bo's teams were on the "elite" line many times. I never really thought of him as a great "big game" coach. I thought he was fairly average. I think Woody was, too. Personally, I thought their style was too brazen. They steam-rolled lesser teams, but against teams with comparable talent they could look wildly uninventive. It's one thing to shove it up Purdue's ass, it's another to do it to USC.

Carr isn't in the same league as Saban and Meyer. He had plenty of elite talent, though.

But, whatever the explanation for whatever point you're making, you need to start off with some sort of basic foundation to establish premise credibility. I find it ludicrous that M is missing out on elite players b/c of some sort of elevated standard. So, I mean, you need to show me what elite players M could have recruited but didn't.

I don't think there is a single top 60 player OSU took that M wouldn't have taken because of some sort of character issue. That were flat out beaten on Browning. They made a play for the likes of Okudah, Shaun Wade and others, but it was a longshot. They also landed 6 or 7 "elite" type players of their own.

The straight-forward answer is that UFM is a better recruiter than HARBAUGH!!!!

[WM Wolverine]

"If this is true, then neither of them are good enough to be at Michigan, unless we are accepting second class citizenship in football."

Tongue in cheek in regards to Talent popping his 2 cents in on those two. Both are a step-down from Taylor Lewan's talent level though both are excellent college OT prospects.

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If M wants 'elite' recruits they'll need to go in Florida/Florida State's/Miami's backyard and beat those programs for it, or Georgia, or Alabama, or Texas/Texas A&M/Oklahoma, or USC or Clemson. It's far more difficult to get a kid to commit to you when you're less than 250 miles away (reasonable drive) as opposed to 600+ miles away. The programs in the southeast have a tremendous advantage having so much talent in-state or in a bordering state.

Urban Meyer had a big head-start on Jim Harbaugh, not just his time there before Harbaugh was hired but he took over a program that was dominating the B1G each season and was a regular in the BCS bowls...

Harbaugh inherited a program that had two failed head coaching hires and was becoming mediocre at the end of Lloyd's tenure. Urban Meyer is also creeping up the list for all-time great college head coaches.

[hack]

he's a creep, at least. got that right.

[SeattleLionsFan]

Urban Meyer is the best coach in college football. Period. One could argue that Saban is as good, but no one else comes close. Any analysis of the difference between M and OSU right now has to account for that.

[iam416]

I wouldn't call him the the overall best coach in CFB, but that's not a discussion for this thread. I am inclined, though, to argue that UFM is the best recruiter going right now. That's certainly germane to this thread insofar as one is explaining differences in M/OSU recruiting -- i.e., really good vs really, really good.

In any event, I'll watch with interest how other "tall, agile, undersized" OL develop under HARBAUGH-FREY!!!! They have a couple coming this year. It'll be interesting to see if they get it right. If they dp, then it's a great alternative to the sure-fire first round man-mountains that seem to find their way to Alabama all the f'n time.

[hack]

Urban Meyer is the best coach in college football. Period. One could argue that Saban is as good, but no one else comes close. Any analysis of the difference between M and OSU right now has to account for that.

I don't think you can really make that call without adjusting for the hidden factors, as we might refer to them. But clearly it's those two and everyone else.

[WM Wolverine]

Urban Meyer is going to be one of the greatest coaches in CFB history. After his next NT, we'll probably start hearing that talk. Ohio State is going to be really tough to beat until he's not there.

[Jeff Buchanan]

That's a myth. Nicely framed in current success.

ufm is beatable first because he's human and second because of trends toward the mean over time. I don't think his current run at osu is sustainable and I think Harbaugh is one of the reasons - they're both cut from the same cloth.

His recruiting success not withstanding, as has been mentioned already, ufm's had a huge head start on JH. In my view, the separation in this area is going to narrow.

[iam416]

trends toward the mean over time

Well, UFM isn't going to trend to just any ol' mean over time. He's going to trend to UFM's mean. We have 15 seasons of data at 5 different schools. He wins roughly 85% of the time. That means that instead of winning 61 out of 67, as he has so far at OSU in 5 seasons, you can expect him to win 57 out of 67 in his next 5. So, his average win total per season should dip from 12.2 to 11.4 over the next 5 seasons.

Perhaps we're already seeing it, as 2016 was UFM's worst year at Ohio State in terms of both total wins and winning percentage. 11-2 about his career mean. I guess that's what we'll have to deal with.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, considering we're dealing with invites to the CFB playoffs and NCG wins, the one game downward trend could certainly be meaningful.

I also don't think your impressivly cunning math holds up to scrutiny. The mean represents a statistical mid point over time being infinity. Your analysis assumes a known time frame. Nice try though.

I'll admit, given meyer's resume with respect to wins and recruiting, it is hard to imagine a string of .750 seasons or combinations of them in our life times.

[hack]

He's beatable because he's beatable. I have serious questions based on the the last M/OSU game about Harbaugh's ability to manage risks and when to take them, and no questions about Meyer's ability to do that. But, still. Harbaugh was an erratic decisionmaker going up against a consistent one, and look what it took. Harbaugh no doubt has to recruit well, but he's going to get his.

[iam416]

Well, JB, my math is certainly better than pretending UFM is going to trend to some mean that includes results from the likes of Hoke, Zook, RichGOD, Hazell, etc. :-)

I'm comfortable with OSU's future.