Around the Big Ten

[lineygoblue]

I think this is going to be one of the best games of the weekend. Wisconsin is a solid power running team, but I think that plays right into what Nebraska defends best. Wisky is known for thinking too highly of themselves, and it wouldn't surprise me to see this game go right down to the final minutes before being decided. I think Wisky wins, but I think its going to be very close. And, I don't expect a lot of scoring. I'd take the under.

Wisky 22
Neb 16

Also .. I think this is a preview of the B1G CCG. These two teams will play again in December.

[entropy]

Nebraska hasn't defended the run very well since Suh left. Last year, Nebraska wasn't that good against the run, but was incredible against the pass. This year, UNL is neither. I'd say run right at nebraska and take your 4.0 yrds per carry...

[Jeff Buchanan]

We also need to talk about MSU at the shoe ....... another good one, potentially.

MSU goes as Cousins does. He played poorly against ND mainly because ND's defense is actually good despite the poor play of Gary Gray against M (not sure that was all his fault) ...... Brian Kelly's exploding head.

I don't think MSU is going to run against osu's front 7 which puts the pressure on Cousins. If he's on like he is very capable of doing and get the job done in the face of a lot of pressure, MSU can win.

Same for osu. If miller progresses, bucks can win.

Home field advantage is the difference. MSU goes down for the second straight time with Dumbtonio getting to eat some more humble pie and make post game excuses like it was Mike Hart's fault.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Wisky 48
Nebraska 27

OK, I'll give you the 27 point thing for Neb but no way, NONE, is Neb going to give up 48 points to Wisconsin. This one is going down to the wire ..... Wisky exposed.

[iam416]

I haven't seen anything, to date, that indicates that UNL will be within 10 points of Wisky.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I haven't seen anything, to date, that indicates that UNL will be within 10 points of Wisky.

Let's look at some numbers.

Nebraska (#8 Rushing) scored 51 points against Washington who is #48 in total defense nationally. An above average defense (Washington) getting blown out by a good rushing offense. Neb has issues with the passing game/Martinez much like Michigan does; admittedly a one dimensional Neb offense facing a Wisconsin defense that I don't believe is as good as their record indicates they are. We'll see.

Wisconsin (#8 Total O) has run up huge numbers against below average defenses. UNLV (#100), OSU (#119 passing D), NIU (#119 rush D), North Dakota State (NL). They haven't played anyone yet that has tested Wilson. Neb will test him.

I think this is going to be a lot closer than those of you who think it won't be close at all.

[Optimus Prime]

Good thing these games are actually played on the field and not in some esoteric statistical snapshot. Wisky is by far from perfect but nearly bulletproof in CR, this season anyway. Expect Wisconsin to control the game and cover the spread with comfort.

[JRB]

Well, let's start with your numbers.

Nebraska (#8 Rushing) scored 51 points against Washington who is #48 in total defense nationally. An above average defense (Washington) getting blown out by a good rushing offense.

I think you've misread the statistics somewhere. Washington is currently #108 in the FBS in total defense, not #48. They gave up more yards to FCS Eastern Washington(granted, EWU was #1 in the FCS at the time) in their opener than they gave up to Nebraska, and they gave up 457 more in their win over Cal last week. They've given up at least 388 yards in every game. Washington might be a pretty good team when it's all said and done, which would speak well for Nebraska's chances, since Wisconsin hasn't played anything like such a team so far, but to this point, Washington's relative success has not been due to their defense.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Washington is #48 in Rush Defense, not total (my bad); the point I wanted to make was that Neb rushed for 326 yards against them. Not a bad demonstration that Neb has a potent rush offense and certainly has the ability to run the ball against a better than average team against the rush.

What's also worth noting is this is not a one man rushing show like Michigan seems to have at this point. Neb shared that rush total among 4 players that had 5 or more attempts with two players (Martinez and Burkhead) having the most.

Neb's offense relies on spreading the defense out and getting Martinez into space; they do it well. Teams that aren't really, really good on defending the outside/edge or teams that get pushed around on the DL are going to give up a lot of yardage on the ground in the zone read Martinez runs. I can see that happening to Wisconsin.

[JRB]

Washington is #48 in Rush Defense, not total (my bad); the point I wanted to make was that Neb rushed for 326 yards against them. Not a bad demonstration that Neb has a potent rush offense and certainly has the ability to run the ball against a better than average team against the rush.

Well, there's a problem with that, too. Washington's rush defense numbers are more than a little misleading, because two of their four opponents rarely run the ball and aren't very good at it when they do-- Hawaii is #104 in the FBS in rush offense, and Eastern Washington is #109 in the FCS in rush offense.

These numbers are of limited usefulness-- Washington isn't playing Wisconsin this week, after all. I don't disagree with you about Nebraska's prolific running game causing Wisconsin problems the Badgers haven't faced in this year. I'd kind of like to see Nebraska win this one, too. But if Wisconsin manages just to limit Nebraska's ground game, I don't know that this Nebraska offense has a workable plan B, and I don't like how Nebraska's defense matches up against Wisconsin's offense at all.

[WM Wolverine]

This early in the season its tough to gauge how good teams are as so many teams schedule cupcakes in the first four weeks of the season. These type of games (NW vs Ill, Wisky vs Neb, MSU vs OSU) is where we start to find out how good these teams really are...

Wisky we thought before the season was a step above everyone else in the B10 (since Pryor left OSU), they've pounded their cupcakes as they should've but done so when other teams struggle a bit against similar competition; they could make a case for themselves as a national title contender with a dominant performance...

Nebraska I see solidly in the 2nd tier, probably alone with OSU but pre-season I had MSU right with those two. My 3rd tier (M, Ill, PSU, NW) isn't much below the 2nd tier and have a good shot at beating those 2nd tier teams head-to-head if the ball bounces their way. NW needs a healthy Persa to be a 3rd tier team, defensively they won't be able to stop much any good offensive team.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Fully agree, WM, on the usefulness of early NCAA stats but I think when they are evaluated correctly, they can shed some light on what a team is good at and what they are not. Jason points out the potential of over-rating the Huskie's defense when you look at EMU and Hawaii's numbers.

But an eyeball check of Neb's rushing O backed up by decent numbers in that stat nationally tells me they can rush the ball and will against Wisky. That's my point.

Now, can Neb's D stand up against the varied attack that it appears Wisconsin has on offense with Wilson stuck in there? I don't know their DL that well nor the Badger's OL to assess that. My gut is that Wisconsin's offense and particularly Wilson, hasn't been tested by a defense at the level of even a "solid 2nd tier B1G team."

Given Martinez's game - a good one - and given that Wisconsin's offense - as prolific as it has been with gaudy numbers unmatched nationally - is untested, I think the game is going to be very competitive.

[WM Wolverine]

Agree that Wisky's offense is probably overrated but not sold on Martinez/Burkhead/Neb getting TD's against Wisky. Wisky 31-Neb 20...

[entropy]

This early in the season its tough to gauge how good teams are as so many teams schedule cupcakes in the first four weeks of the season. These type of games (NW vs Ill, Wisky vs Neb, MSU vs OSU) is where we start to find out how good these teams really are...

Wisky we thought before the season was a step above everyone else in the B10 (since Pryor left OSU), they've pounded their cupcakes as they should've but done so when other teams struggle a bit against similar competition; they could make a case for themselves as a national title contender with a dominant performance...

Nebraska I see solidly in the 2nd tier, probably alone with OSU but pre-season I had MSU right with those two. My 3rd tier (M, Ill, PSU, NW) isn't much below the 2nd tier and have a good shot at beating those 2nd tier teams head-to-head if the ball bounces their way. NW needs a healthy Persa to be a 3rd tier team, defensively they won't be able to stop much any good offensive team.

interesting, that is how I saw it too. I'd say i thought uNL's defense would have been better and the offense less dynamic, but I think your tiers make sense.

[Hannibal]

We'll see if Wisconsin still looks dominant when they play a real team. They look impressive now, but I can remember a lot of mediocre teams that looked like legitimate Top 5 material before they got into their conference schedule. Wisconsin's schedule to this point has been Gad awful. UNLV just got blown out by Southern Utah. I didn't even know there was such a school as Southern Utah. They beat UNLV 41-16. Wow. Oregon State is 0-3 with a losses at home to I-AA Sacramento State and a bad UCLA team.