Around the Big Ten

[Jamie H]

The most important stat is what percentage of your drives are you scoring on compared to your opponent? Michigan was terrible at this stat last year because the offense turned the ball over and the defense couldn't stop anyone.

If your team in general scores on a higher percentage of drives than your opponent, then you want to maximize the number of possessions for both teams (the Rodriguez method) because you are more efficient than your opponent. If, however, your opponent is more efficient than you, the best way to neutralize them is to MINIMIZE the number of possessions for BOTH teams (i.e. control TOP) because then any mistake your opponent makes is maximized in terms of limiting their possessions. Then if you happen to play well and your opponent makes a key mistake or two, you can win.

Rodriguez problem was that he strived to maximize possessions for both teams despite the fact that his opponent was almost ALWAYS more efficient on offense than Michigan was. So Rodriguez was minimizing their rare mistakes by giving them more and more chances to score against his pathetic defense.

It's the same thing in basketball. If you are an offensively efficient team, you want to maximize possessions. If you are defensive team or underpowered in general, you want to minimize possessions and hope your opponent makes a few mistakes.

[entropy]

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/crime_and_courts/article_4e81fd32-e795-11e0-9550-001cc4c03286.html

[Dr. Strangelove]

Indiana's season looking like a disaster. Didn't know they set a school record for penalties

http://www.news-sentinel.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20110926/SPORTS/110929683/1002

[Wild Hoss]

Right. Or even 3rd and inches. Watching some spread teams line up 5 yards in the backfield on 3rd and inches when a QB sneak will do just fine always amazes me.

There's very few things I appreciate more in a head coach then grasping the surest way to get a first down. One of Tressel's "great" play calling sequences was against Miami in the Fiesta. They had it 3rd and goal at the one with Clarett in the backfield. But Coach Tressel knew the risk of handing the ball off and knew that two straight QB sneaks would get the job done. And it did, just barely.

There are a couple factors at play here. First...the SEC cheat like motherfuckers, so they know their defenses can play with anybody. Their DL are unblockable with Scat-type protections favored by spread teams.
Second, this spread stuff is all based on half-field reads that employ few plays, but rely on synchronized post-snap adjustments between the receivers and quarterback to expand that repertoire. With five days to prep, its tough to defend. With five WEEKS to prepare you can watch enough film to figure out their checks.

Third...SEC teams run the ball inside. It doesn?t lend itself to huge, flashy numbers, but when they are faced with that crucial 3rd 2 in the 4th quarter, their offenses have more options because of the fcat they?ve run it up the gut all game long. When they run a 3-step slant, its open. Spread team does the same in the same scenario, there are LBs and Des zone dropping into those lanes.

Being physical pays off.

[iam416]

Bring back the West Coast Folly!

[Mike]

I remember when Steve Marriucci started his run with the Lions and the west coast offense was all the rage. After being embarrassed in the season opener the headline in the Detroit paper read: "Wet Toast Offense". That still cracks me up.

[UMStan White]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but last year didn't we lead the conference in having the most drives of 80 yards or more for scores? The problem wasn't TOP or not being able to move the ball, or convert 3rd and short. The problem was no defense and no special teams. Last season we could have had 11 weebles out there and look better than we did.

[Jamie H]

Drives of 80 yards doesn't equal TOP. Michigan was a big play offense that got lots of yards very quickly.

Average TOP:
2010: 27:10
2009: 26:25
2008: 27:39
2007: 29:49
2006: 33:28
2005: 31:23
2004: 31:32
2003: 32:19

Some of the change starting in 2008 was bad defense, but I think a lot of it was offensive philosophy.

That being said, ND dominated TOP in the game this year.

[iam416]

That being said, ND dominated TOP in the game this year.

Mostly because Notre Dame was, well, better.

[Pasadena Blue]

Mostly because Notre Dame was, well, better.

so was the '96 Bucks team.

[iam416]

As were the 2004-2010 Buckeye teams.

The point, obviously, is that the reason Notre Dame dominated TOP is that they dominated the first 3 quarters of the game. That sort of goes hand-in-hand -- TOP accurately reflected ND's dominance through 3 quarters.

Fortunately for M, ND apparently plays the single worse prevent defense known to man. And then followed it up with a defensive call of profound stupidity. All in all, I'm surprised BK didn't die...or kill someone.

[Mike]

I'm surprised BK didn't die...or kill someone.

The season is still young.

[Jeff Buchanan]

What's the pick on the Neb/Wisconsin game and NWU/Illinois game?

I've heard it said Wisconsin does not have the speed on defense to play against Martinez's ability to take the alley or the edge. Neb will expose Wisconsin's weak OOC schedule. Wilson has not yet been seen working 1st and 7 or 3rd and 6. Wisconsin has had a decided advantage on 1st and 3rd downs against weak opponents. He had a turnover issue at NCSU when under pressure to make a play. Neb's D is underrated. OTH Camp Randall is an impossible place to play and ..... welcome to the B1G. Tough game to pick. I'm going with Neb by 3 only because I want to see Bilema eat some humble pie.

Illinois is going to roll NW. Terrible match-ups on both sides of the ball ...... unless Persa, who will be returning to action probably in a limited roll is better than he should be. Playing Persa requires Fitzgerald to install another offense b/c Persa won't be running the option game that NWU ran without him. Illini by two or more scores.

[JRB]

I've heard it said Wisconsin does not have the speed on defense to play against Martinez's ability to take the alley or the edge.

I seem to recall Wisconsin handling a team led by a speedy QB last year reasonably well. Martinez and Burkhead are going to make plays-- I'm just not convinced they're going to make enough of them.

Neb's D is underrated.

I haven't seen much evidence this year to support this contention. Fresno State and Washington gave Nebraska's defense all kinds of problems. It's always possible that a team of Nebraska's talent turns it up going into a big conference game, but if they don't improve defensively from the Washington game, I could actually see this one getting out of hand. I would think Nebraska's schedule's prepared them for this sort of game better than Wisconsin's has, but unfortunately, Nebraska's schedule has also exposed them to a degree.

Wisconsin 38, Nebraska 24.

As for Northwestern-Illinois, it's tough to know what to make of that one. Illinois could easily be 2-2 right now, and they've turned the ball over enough in the last two games to keep their opponents in it. That's just the sort of scenario in which Northwestern teams find ways to steal games(ask Iowa). I think Illinois wins this, but it wouldn't surprise me if Northwestern hangs tough all the way.

Illinois 24, Northwestern 16.

[entropy]

Wisky 48
Nebraska 27

Taylor is worth a turnover or 2. I expect UNL will move the ball, but will stop itself just as often as wisky stops them. On D, nebraska isn't getting it down. Can't stop the pass and can't stop the run. The playmakers are not making plays and the secondary is making a lot of errors. I don't think this game will be that close. UNL is just not ready in several areas of this ballgame.