Around the Big Ten

[Cody_Russell]

FOX Gameday is going to be in EL.

I’m guessing ESPN College Gameday will be in East Lansing too. Usually they announce the location on the Sunday prior to the event and they didn’t yesterday.
Thinking it’s taking this long because they are working out logistics with FOX and Barstool Sports being there too. ESPN was unquestionably going to have it in Columbus until Penn State embarrassed themselves.
No doubt, M vs MSU is a bigger game than PSU vs OSU.

WEEK 9

Michigan at Michigan State (12 PM) Fox
Iowa at Wisconsin (12 PM) ESPN
Indiana at Maryland (12 PM) BTN
Illinois v. Rutgers (12 PM) BTN

Nebraska v. Purdue (3:30 PM) ESPN2
Minnesota at Northwestern (3:30 PM) BTN

Ohio State v. Penn State (7:30 PM) ABC

Much better college football week of games than last week.

[Mike]

Going into showdown weekend, here are how things stand in the Big Ten East:

Team	W-L	PF	PA
Michigan	4-0	123	66
MSU	4-0	112	69
OSU	4-0	217	68
PSU	2-2	78	53

Can we stop pretending that OSU isn't far and and away the best team in the Big Ten? The shtick is getting old.

Over in the West the 3 likely contenders are:

Team	W-L	PF	PA
Iowa	3-1	115	64
Minny	3-1	115	97
Wiscy	2-2	81	67

One thing is not like the others....

[iam416]

Ohio State's offense has put up gaudy numbers against bad and/or crippled defenses. The defense remains average at best.

If Ohio State can pass the ball really well against a very good pass defense then I'll start to think they might have a prayer in AA.

[Mike]

OSU leads the nation in both YPG and PPG and they are improving every week. The drop from OSU to UM/MSU/Iowa is massive. And Michigan's offensive numbers are skewed a bit by the NIU game.

[iam416]

The OFFENSIVE drop in terms of pure stats is signficant. However, there is also the defense. And, for that matter, big offiensive numbers against shitty/crippled defenses don't necessarily scale up against great defenses. M's offense won't put up gaudy numbers, but they'll grind good defenses into dust -- like Wisconsin, Nebraska, NWC.

Ohio State may have dropped 60 on NWC, but that's not what HARBAUGH!!!! wants to do.

[Mike]

Well, OSU's scoring defense in conference play is right in line with UM/MSU/Iowa, etc. There's no difference in defensive performance but then you DOUBLE offensive output over some of the other top teams in the league. I think OSU is the 2nd best team in the country right now. This season reminds me of the one when they lost to VaTech at home, then ran the table on the way to a natty.

[iam416]

Well, I hope you're right for once in your god-forsaken life.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I hope you choke on your own vomit...

[AlabamAlum]

There are a ton of matchup and performance inequalities within a conference. So, to break it down to just conference games, the only thing that makes sense is comparing and contrasting results vs like opponents. In October, that means that you usually only have a game or two of like opponents to compare and considering the mercurial nature of college kids’ performances, you usually don’t have enough data points to make a meaningful comparison until the very end of the season.

Using Alabama, as an example. If you look at Texas A&M’s 4-point loss to Mississippi State and Alabama’s 40-point win in Starkville, You are led to assume that Alabama destroyed the Aggies. Unfortunately (for me), we know that didn’t happen.

I personally think that it makes sense to take all games into consideration if the overall strength of schedule is ballpark comparable because the fewer the data points that less meaningful the numbers. Earlier in the season you tend to end up with wildly skewed results if you start restricting performance sets from consideration and, as a result, end up with some transitive score/production numbers without a lot of meaning.

As always, your mileage may very.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Lucid yet cogent

[Jeff Buchanan]

....... but that's not what HARBAUGH!!!! wants to do.

I think this is a significant factor in this discussion. Harbaugh's CFB coaching career when it comes to his offenses has been decidedly manball oriented. This isn't debatable. Unlike Day at OSU who thrives on putting up "gaudy" numbers, HARBAUGH!!!, much to the disappointment of M fans, has no interest in doing that. He likes a 12 round match where his opponent suffers a torrent of body blows and he wins the match by decision rather than a KO. CRD looks to get the knock out and, as Talent notes, he's doing that against weaker/crippled opponent.

[iam416]

Right. CRD is all sizzle no steak. HARBAUGH!!!! is far more substantial and actually has a team that can play with the elite in the CFP.

[WM Wolverine]

Buckeyes are way better in every facet than what I saw from them in the first month, a couple weeks ago I said the Buckeyes were beatable (by say Sparty/Penn State, M). I think that is trending to not be the case, they are a young team that is cleaning up their issues (happens when you've good coaching w/ elite talent) on defense and getting the most out of their elite talent on offense. They've scored 52+ every game since Tusla.

[Mike]

AA, the reason I only used conference stats is to negate the tomato can games. Michigan scored TDs on their first 9 possessions (8 rushing) against NIU and had a 10th nullified by a holding penalty. That game isn't very instructive when comparing Michigan to MSU/OSU/PSU, etc.

UM and Sparty have both played Rutgers and UNL so there is some overlap there. Sparty has also played Indiana and scraped by in Bloomington while OSU led 44-7 at the half at IU. I know, transitive property and all... but enough valid data is emerging to indicate that OSU is separating from the pack in the Big Ten. Northwestern has the worst run defense in the conference and Michigan quietly accumulated 294 yards on the ground against them. But against more stout Big Ten defenses like Wisconsin and Rutgers, Michigan put up 112 on the ground in each game. Michigan is rushing for 180.5 YPG in conference play after going over 300 in each of their non-con games. That is more instructive at this point in the season, IMO.

Combine a rushing game that is starting to find it's true level with a passing game that is adequate at best and there is reason for concern against the big 3 remaining games. I'm not suggesting Michigan isn't a good team, just that they aren't this elite juggernaut that you and Talent are selling. I think they'll end up 10-2 and I predicted 5-7 so I'm a happy guy. Win Saturday and I'll take the rest of the season in stride, win or lose.

[lineygoblue]

For a Captain Obvious moment, Michigan has improved this year. There is no debating that. Offensively the OL is getting blocking assignments done, and doing so into the 2nd level. The RB's are running hard, and when passes are needed, McNamara is doing a journeyman's job, and getting just enough done to keep the W's coming. Those things alone, make Michigan a better team than in 2020. Defensively, they're not leaving themselves exposed to AS MANY big plays as in the past. Big plays still happen, but they are fewer in number. M's defenders seem to be tackling better. I've seen a lot of imporved one-on-one tackling. I think McDonald has brought a defensive scheme that the players both understand, and they like playing it.

BUT

All that doesn't mean that Michigan is ready to overwhelm the conference, and move on into playoff territory. I would bet Jeff's next cruise tickets that Coach Ryan Day is NOT sitting at home, thrashing in bed at night, worried about how he's going to beat Michigan this year. When it comes to Michigan, I think he's sleeping just fine. NOTHING that OSU has done, makes them any less likely to lay a loss on Michigan in November. They lost one (1) game to a well-prepared team, and OSU was probably overlooking them a bit. It happens. As Mike noted, everything that OSU has done since then shows that they've corrected the problems, and are by far, the best team in the conference. I really wish I didn't have to say that. I'd love to see Michigan really and truthfully going into that game as an overwhelming favorite. Its just not true. MAYBE the game will be a bit closer than 63-39 (24 points) but I could see OSU winning in AA by something like 40-17. That's roughly the same spread.

Our opposing OSU fan contingent here loves two things about as much as life itself. They love mocking US, and they love mocking Harbaugh. All of this baloney about Michigan overhauling OSU this year is just silly talk, and they know it. I could put a stop to that with about 2-3 posts with key words and phrases in it, and our OSU friends would show their true feelings in a flash. But, I don't do that anymore. We all know it anyway.

I was wrong about Michigan going 6-6 this year. I think its now obvious that they are headed for a ceiling of 10-2, but likely 9-3. PSU is still going to be tough in HV. As much as I'd love to see it, M isn't beating OSU. No.