Around the Big Ten

[iam416]

I have plenty of respect for Don Brown. I think that hire is the single-best thing HARBAUGH!!!! has done. But, I also think that Bush was a certified, grade A bad ass. I don't think they've replaced him. I think their DTs are meh. I think they've been meh since Hurst left. I think the DBs are solid, but let's see what they do when you challenge #3 and #4. I like M's defense, but I still like Sparty's a bit better. And, I don't think Army is a measure of almost anything. Last year Duke held them to 168 yards on 47 carries (3.6). Rice held them to 231 yards on 51 carries (4.1). So, let's pumo the brakes on "SERVICE ACADEMY!!!" bullshit.

[Cody_Russell]

M's defense should still be a great unit. TDs they gave up against MTST were fluky (came off turnovers, M defenders freezing on blown whistles, and a junk TD vs the 3rd stringers). Army's offense generally kept in check. Josh Ross is definitely a poor man's, less athletic version of Bush Jr. DT depth poor right now when compared to previous years. All else, same ole defense.
Want to see a Don Brown defense live up to the hype vs good spread offense.
I'm in "see it to believe it" mode when it comes to the M offense. Concerned about that unit right now.


The uncertainties about Jack Coan still have me hesitant about Wisconsin's potential.

I like Iowa, but their schedule is tough. As much as I dislike Nate Stanley (see, 2018 @ Penn State), he is the QB I'd trust most in the B10 West.

Minnesota might have the most favorable B10 West schedule to come out of nowhere and surprise people.
@ Purdue, vs Illinois, vs Nebraska, @ Rutgers, vs Maryland, vs Penn State, @ Iowa, @ Northwestern, vs Wisconsin. Win 1 or 2 of those bolded games and watch out.
Though, every time I've had Minnesota on, they look so blah.

B10 West winner will definitely have 2 losses.

[Jeff Buchanan]

talent, agree on Bush. Hudson is a screaming ball of targeting waiting to happen. He's good but not anywhere near as controlled and smart as Bush. Agree on the DL after Hurst and as it applies to his disruptiveness in all phases of the game .....but Brown has adjusted the defense to be less active in the opponent's backfield and play less aggressively with his CBs using a bit more zone but he still features man in the right down and distance situations.

It's 3rd and 8 for MTSU - a passing down. Start with the NT (Hutchinson) above is Mike Dana (the transfer) and Uche. Below him is Galsgow. Glasgow is the only LB type player in this set. The rest are CBs and Ss - 7 of them! There's pressure to be brought/threatened here but the overall scheme is focused to recognize a quick pass by MTSU's QB will mitigate or negate pressure but the right players, the DBs, are in place to prevent the first down. In 2018 we'd see a much more aggressive approach that, in the case of osu and UF, got burned.



Here' it's second and 5. Defend the run and the pass. Brown has done some things to get Uche in the DL game - he's fast, smart and effective versus the run game because he can read the play and get to the gap. This is 4-2-5 stuff with (from bottom to top) Uche, Danna, Hutchinson (at NT) and Paye. But look who's at the lone FS spot. It's Hudson. Brown likes his Ss, Metellus and Hawkins in this screen shot, in coverage. If Bush were still around Bush would be playing where Hawkins is and Hawkins would have been the deep FS. On this play in 2018, Bush would have been screaming to the QB or, in the case of a ZR with a give, the RB. Not now. This, to me is reflective of a much less aggressive Down Brown without the bad-ass Bush doing what he needs to do with the talent available.



I'll give you your point about pumping the brakes on Brown enthusiasm v. Army. Even though it was good and he delivered on his promise that he'd been working on the D v. Army since spring ball, we will never see the D he developed for them again. Brian didn't even do a UFR because it was irrelevant. What is worth getting excited about, though, is that there's good evidence that Brown did some tinkering to deal with the kinds of offenses M has to deal with in conference play and I'm not in doubt at all that the purpose of that tinkering is to deal better with osu.

[iam416]

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well. we'll see. I'm not enthusiastic about M's chances in Madison. At this point, based on the available data, I'm biased against M having an offensive game plan that shocks the world like it needs to. You may be a better judge of the M-Wisky game than I am presently.

I think I am making a good call on JH, his football character and DNA supported by identifiable trends in how he plans for and manages games during the 4 years we've watched him do that. I think he's overly conservative, steeped in the power run game and has a hard time trusting the passing game. With the arrival of Josh Gattis and all this talk of a new offense for M in 2019 put's Harbaugh's approach to the modern game of CFB in sharp contrast to what I think is actually happening to it and which strategies are going to be successful and which are not.

It's difficult, it would seem, for Harbaugh to get M's offense into high gear with the deep ball off the PA, along with credible ZR and RPO stuff from Shea and called, from the booth, I assume, by Gattis. JH holds on to what he knows and believes in even when, as the game unfolds, there are obvious inefficiencies in his power/run focused strategies. I don't think he trusts Josh Gattis yet and might never trust him. Instead, with Gattis debuting his speed in space offense, he turteled in response to problems and played to the defense and the one guy he does trust on his staff, Don Brown.

This isn't new or, if it was, I don't think I'd be particularly worried about Gattis (or Patterson) ultimately being successful with turning M's offense into something other than what it was v. Army. Mark me down as worried, way more worried than I was after MTSU and I was worried after that game out of the gate.

[lineygoblue]

If what we've seen in Michigan's first two games is "who they are" (with apologies to Dennis Green) then they're no better than an 8-4 team, with 7-5 a likely possibility.

I don't see any way that they win in Madison. There is no magic fairy dust that can be sprinkled on this team to make them suddenly better. They're playing like they're confused and with very little passion. Their lack of execution is alarming. Army came in with a smaller and supposedly less-talented team, and out-executed them. And for all intents and purposes, they won the game. If Army had Jake Moody, they would have won the game in regulation.

Michigan hasn't won in Madison since the early 2000's. (2001?) and they now play road games like they're shocked and scared at the home team's efforts.

If Michigan stays within 14 points, I'll consider it a moral victory.

[WingsFan]

2001 was the last win, pretty sure it was that muffed punt by Wisky late in the 4th how Michigan won 20-17

[iam416]

I think I am making a good call on JH, his football character and DNA supported by identifiable trends in how he plans for and manages games during the 4 years we've watched him do that. I think he's overly conservative, steeped in the power run game and has a hard time trusting the passing game. With the arrival of Josh Gattis and all this talk of a new offense for M in 2019 put's Harbaugh's approach to the modern game of CFB in sharp contrast to what I think is actually happening to it and which strategies are going to be successful and which are not.

I'm very much inclined to think this is correct. I saw it with UFM, too. He has his version of the spread which is Alex Smith/Tim Tebow/JTB. He wants that running QB and, look, for good reason. But, it's almost non-negotiable. And when he has one, that's his crutch in crunch time. Ryan Day is very much a more "pro" style spread where he wants the QB to throw the ball.

So, when you look at UFM's tenure at OSU, 2015 is a glaring disaster, and that was due mostly to an offense that was still very much under UFM's control. As you recall, they started Cardale over JTB for the bulk of the season. But, they essentially ran a garbled hybrid that was more toward UFM's power game. He couldn't quite let go. Also, their OCs that year (Warriner and Beck) weren't good. Last year, if UFM had JTB back for a 6th year he would have surely picked him over Haskins. But, he couldn't. And with Haskins he finally gave Ryan Day a lot of control because, I think, he really trusted (trusts) Ryan Day as a coach.

I think with these successful HCs that they need to have SOMETHING that is theirs. UFM abdicated defense to Schiano with general instructions. But on offense, he had his opinions and they counted. It wasn't until Ryan Day + Dwayne Haskins that he finally sort of relented.

With HARBAUGH!!!!, he still definitely has his preferred way of doing things. And, while he may think GATTIS!!!! is the right guy and good talent, he still wants to see him produce before he can really trust him with the keys. Even then, I'm not sure if he can do it. I don't think these guys are good at delegating some shit. I think, TBH, it took a remarkable confluence of events to get UFM there last year.

So, yeah, that could be a real issue for M's offense. At some point, GATTIS!!!! needs to have the keys. But, heh, this isn't Year 1 or 2 for HARBAUGH!!!! If, for some unlikely reason, they bomb out to 9-3 or something as a pre-season favorite, well, then....it's going to be a direct hit to him. So, it's a real exercise in trust -- real consequences if it fails.

[WM Wolverine]

Gattis is a first year offensive coordinator and play caller.... He may be a genius offensive mind but he has zero track record.
?
Offense in second half ????vs Army looked very different than MTSU and the first quarter vs Army.

[Jeff Buchanan]

........So, yeah, that could be a real issue for M's offense. At some point, GATTIS!!!! needs to have the keys. But, heh, this isn't Year 1 or 2 for HARBAUGH!!!! If, for some unlikely reason, they bomb out to 9-3 or something as a pre-season favorite, well, then....it's going to be a direct hit to him. So, it's a real exercise in trust -- real consequences if it fails.

We agree on Harbaugh.

While it might seem like it should, I'm not sure 9-3 in 2019 will have "real consequences." That's because of the M culture thing that has been beaten to death at this forum. He'll take plenty of media hits .... .he's never appeared to be bothered in any serious way by that.

The facts are, that in that context, Harbaugh is a perfect fit and will remain so until people paying the big bucks to see Michigan football and/or gain perceived access and influence on the program stop picking up the tab. I think that's more than just a few years off for a lot of different reasons.

I also think Warde Manuel is a smart guy if his hiring of Juan Howard to replace JB - which looks like a damn good hire for now - is an indicator of that. But the Hackett executed, JH hire was supposed to be a home-run and Manuel is not going to let go of the position that it was without an extended period of we'll see and dramatically declining football revenues.

What might move Harbaugh out of the HC seat are inquires to his people from the NFL. He's not lost any cred there and he may be a better NFL coach than he is a CFB coach. The timing has to be right though. Harbaugh values both family, geographic and job stability. If it's up to him on when to move on it has to be a perfect fit for him from a life-style perspective and professionally. He can afford to be picky because his job at M is, for the most part, secure.

What also has to be perfect is the availability of a CFB level coach to replace JH should he jump to the NFL. That's where Manuel's part in all this comes into play. No telling who the would-be coach will be and during what time frame you might speculate appropriate candidates would become available. But, given how I view Manuel as a mostly smart guy, he would encourage Harbaugh to stay, assuming he's getting offers to jump back into the NFL, until the right guy, in Manuel's eyes, is available.

[hack]

Whether or not JH trusts the passing game isn't what's telling to me. Whatever scheme you pick, you should be able to install it and execute it properly. Wisconsin has an outdated offense, so if you're convinced Michigan's problem is that JH doesn't trust passing then you shouldn't be afraird of Wisconsin. But we all are filled with dread because they have the right athletes to do it and they execute it well. JH's offenses have yet to show a consistent ability to execute the plan without a critical mass of missed assignments, flags, drops, and bad QB reads.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I remember after MSU beat Michigan a couple years back Mork was laughing about the claimed complexity of Harbugh's run game out of multiple formations and blocking schemes desiged to fool defenders. He said, They ran a lof formations but in the end, that didn't confuse us one bit and we made the tackles (or words to that effect).

So, your point, Hack, has merit. You're talking about execution errors that may or may not be repeated. Sure, good coaching is fundamental to limiting errors even though they are still going to happen. I think your point is that Chryst and his staff are better at this than Harbaugh and his staff are.

The thing is that virtually nothing happens consistently across individual games and even seasons. A shit-show by team X in game Y can turn into a thing of beauty, timing and execution in game Z.

I've made the point here that there are identifiable trends in the way M football plays the game under Harbaugh but they are global in their impact. It's really hard to extrapolate that the player mistakes or the coaching mis-steps in M's first two games will appear consistently v. Wisconsin.

What I do expect to see is Harbaugh truteling in Madison if Shea's first couple of possessions go badly.

[hack]

I agree that a rough start could be a negative-feedback loop.

[Tom W]

We agree on Harbaugh.

While it might seem like it should, I'm not sure 9-3 in 2019 will have "real consequences." That's because of the M culture thing that has been beaten to death at this forum. He'll take plenty of media hits .... .he's never appeared to be bothered in any serious way by that.

The facts are, that in that context, Harbaugh is a perfect fit and will remain so until people paying the big bucks to see Michigan football and/or gain perceived access and influence on the program stop picking up the tab. I think that's more than just a few years off for a lot of different reasons.

I also think Warde Manuel is a smart guy if his hiring of Juan Howard to replace JB - which looks like a damn good hire for now - is an indicator of that. But the Hackett executed, JH hire was supposed to be a home-run and Manuel is not going to let go of the position that it was without an extended period of we'll see and dramatically declining football revenues.

I think the fuse is a lot shorter than that.

Yes, it really took several years for the critical mass to be reached to end the RRod/Hoke debacle. But there was a certain amount of patience allowed to restock the cupboards and modernize the system- along with a flukish Sugar Bowl Championship and a nearly perfect Sith Lord figure in Dave Brandon to take a lot of the hits.

These excuses aren't here anymore. Harbaugh has had 4 years to get this team right. He has better talent than anybody on their schedule not named ohio, yet everybody is pretty much opining about how badly Wisconsin is going to abuse them this weekend.

Jimmy wasn't brought here to beat Wisconsin in September, and you wouldn't think that would be such an issue when you consider how he played the game and how he coached before he got here. Yet, we're worried about Wisconsin- and that's probably legitimate. It shouldn't be. If it is then, we're really looking uphill against Iowa, PSU, and Sparty too. Don't even think about ND and ohio. It will get really ugly really fast

[hack]

I was surprised Hoke didn't get a longer leash, but Brandon actually helped Hoke out the door, in an accidental sort of way, when he shoved him under the bus in concussiongate. I don't know if there are any takeaways from that.