Around the Big Ten

[THE_WIZARD_]

clever

[Tom W]

If Ohio State shocks the world and upsets M, then the B10 is likely out (assuming OU runs the table).

It will be more shocking that the refs actually give Michigan a fair break- even considering that doing so would put a B10+4 team into the CFP

[THE_WIZARD_]

The WWCAW rears it's ugly head yet again...

[Jeff Buchanan]

First, Buchanan, you stated that it's been a long time since M was in the conversation in November. They were definitively part of the conversation throughout the entire month of November in 2016. Whether that's what you meant by a long time, I can't say.

I actually think 2016 was a glimpse at what Harbaughffense could be with a good QB playing to a great defense. And, you're correct, M was in the discussion but my sense is that the 2018 offense has the potential to be more consistent in delivering the wins in November, the kind of wins needed to get to a championship level. So far, M has shaken the can't win on the road, can't beat good teams (Wisconsin at the time was supposed to be a good team) and has gone 1-1 in two rivalry games beating MSU (the most important) and losing to ND (now looking pretty damn good, season opener on the road). There's no road loss to teams like Iowa that marred M's 2016 offense.

I'll acknowledge Patterson misses reads and seems to hold the ball too long - that is a weakness. But every team, when you get down to the nitty-gritty, has them. OTH, Patterson's passing probably isn't as important as the things he can do in the run game that have not been present in M's offense since, well, Rick Leach ran Bo's option ball. As I said, this is a hard offense to defend with it's play variability. YMMV but yer an idiot if it does.

I don't know this. I'm not terribly impressed with M's offense. I think, e.g., Clemson's DL would obliterate the fuck out of them. Just because I think Ohio State can't stop them doesn't mean I think it's a good offense. Ohio State couldn't stop Minnesota for awhile, and Minnesota's offense is really bad.

You should ...... I don't know what you are basing your assessment of M's offense on. I can look at any meaningful statistic that objectifies such assessments and M's offense in 2018 is good enough and marginally better than 2016. FEI (ESPN's) publication of it) is the least friendly to M's offense. S&P+ is the most. for 2018, M's ranked #5 behind Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma and UGA in that order. You can compare both of them at this link:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

M gets a push from their defense but the offense isn't bad and, IMO based on stats that back that up better than 2016. You can play around with this link to see that if you're interested:

http://www.espn.com/college-football...tab/efficiency

Until Jim Harbaugh locks down a couple of championships with Harbaughffense, I'm not going to contend his power-centric hybrid is THE way to go anymore than the spread and shred, being all the rage a few years back, was allegedly THE way to go then. Offenses and defenses adapt and morph. The best CFB coaches though, can be identified by how well they do with the talent they have. Saban has an unreal talent advantage and he's consistently optimized it. Paul Chryst doesn't, and until 2018, he's done a really good job at optimizing his.

I think with Patterson at QB, Harbaughffense is better than you seem to want to see it. You really have to pay attention to what he does and I'd not expect you to spend the time I do paying attention. It's in the details though and their are statistical measures that get down in the weeds - The Five Factors is one. In 2018, M's offense is much more efficient than it was in 2017 and probably marginally better than 2016 .... but those margins can make a difference in a competitive game. What M is not good at is Opportunity Rate and there have been too many points left on the field - MSU was a good example. Beyond efficiency, in general and looking specifically at average 3rd down yardage (Bill Walsh Stats), M has the best third down to go yardage in CFB. A lot of that has to do with the huge improvement in OL development and play. That is big considering the possession, pound the ball game strategy I've shown to be present in Harbaughffense. Again, some won't see this and instead want to look at the scoreboard. That's not enough. M can win by 40 or by 1. The score differential is not nearly important as the degree of control that is exerted on the field by the entire team. Back to MSU, while I was frustrated, I knew that M was going to win that one by the degree of control the team was exerting on MSU. That was rarely the case in 2017 or even 2016. Brown's D gave up a lot of big plays at critical times those years - control was in question. To me, that is the difference maker in comparing this offense (along with defense and ST) to any and all previous versions of M football. You can play around with this web site to see all this or you can take my word for it ...... knowing that I can be wrong in interpreting this data.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#

[AlabamAlum]

[WM Wolverine]

Best record in the Big Ten over the past twelve games? Northwestern, at 11-1.

[drok]

[There's no road loss to teams like Iowa that marred M's 2016 offense.

not yet

[WingsFan]

The confidence expressed on this forum is even higher than the mgoblog forum. Hope the players aren't nearly as overconfident. Otherwise we are in for a huge letdown.

lol I might be drinking the Maize and Blue kool-aid, but I have a good feeling about this team.

[hack]

I do too. And Jeff's feelingsball commentabout controlling games has a strong whiff of truth to it. Very '97. But FFS one win against State just means Dantonio went from 8-2 vs. Michigan to. 8-3. No wrongs have been righted yet.

[WingsFan]

2-2 vs Harbaugh

[Rocky Bleier]

Should be 1 - 3 dammit! How can you use a normal punt formation in that situation? Still can't believe it...

[Jeff Buchanan]

Look, based on some pretty thorough analysis that is available if you want to dig into it, Michigan is demonstrably a good CFB team...... as good as any of the accepted contenders for the CFP. The probabilities to win out, beating osu in c-bus and with Michigan going 11-1 in the regular season and snagging a berth in teh CFPs are ALL in M's favor. Those are the numbers. You can disagree based on your own feelings ball or emotions.

Having said that, Fancy Stats and the probabilities that arise from them in the 12 game regular season of CFB are a lot less valuable than they are in, say, MLB or the NBA. They are what they are and as such, in CFB, they are subject to the randomness of the universe disturbing their predictive capacity. Such is life.

I can see that randomness contributing to a loss. I still think Harbaughffense as it might be viewed in the context of game strategy allows too much room for randomness to do it's thing and cost a win that coulda-shoulda-woulda occurred if only for ........ whatever. If M's offense were as risk tolerant instead of risk averse as M's defense, this team would be really hard to beat. But, I see the value of what I think is an identifiable strategy: Evaluate and take risks on offense based on game flow; control the opponent using all phases of the game; minimize risk - pound the ball and win the physical battle at the LOS.

Having said that, explosive teams on both sides of the ball, as talent points out is the case with Clemson, would be tough outs for Michigan given a risk averse offense that seeks control as opposed to overwhelming, score a lot of points, offense. I'm not sure M could keep up with an unleashed shoot out with Alabama. I think they do well v. ND or OK if the CFP was played this weekend. It won't be. Instead M will face PSU with a good set of DEs, equal to MSU's Willikies X2. That could disrupt Harbaughffense and lead to increased risk taking ........ the success of that depends a lot on whether or not Patterson does better than he did v. MSU - according to Brian's UFR offense - "Patterson's worst game of the season."

There's nothing to suggest he will - the pressure is on M now with expectations for success on the field increasing dramatically. No such pressure exists for PSU or, when M goes to c-bus, osu. IMO, how Patterson plays in these two games, how randomness torpedoes M's goals, will determine whether or not M goes to Indy.

[iam416]

I don't think M is as good as any of the CFP contenders, and I don't think it's a particularly close question. I also didn't think Hornibrook was the best QB in the B10. I'm not going to go bonkers at the alter of fancystats. It's insane. Especially for CFB.

Personally, I still think ND would beat M. There was nothing in that game that suggested that M was as good as ND. Both teams have improved over the course of the year, but, IMO M's offense would still get beat on.

M's defense is as good as any, but you ain't beating Alabama scoring 17. In fact, I think Alabama should be especially terrifying for a press man team because Alabama's WRs are for real early round NFL ballers. They ain't Flynn Nagel.

But, we'll find this all out soon enough. M is going rail Penn State and Ohio State. And then there is a decent chance that Alabama and M will play in the CFP.

Oklahoma would get some points, too, but their defense is pretty bad.

[iam416]

the pressure is on M now with expectations for success on the field increasing dramatically. No such pressure exists for PSU or, when M goes to c-bus, osu

Just to be clear, I mean just to be clear...you don't think Ohio State will be under like pressure in The Game if, say, they manage to scrape by and beat UNL, Sparty and Maryland? You don't think that game would be, you know, kind of a big fucking deal?

Look, I get the pronouncements that Ohio State has little chance against HARBAUGH!!!!! And I'm sympathetic to the argument that OSU loses 1 before The Game -- I'd say Sparty is a toss-up. But I''m not sure you should go bulldozing the Ohio State program into an earthen dam for all-time just quite yet.

[Hannibal]

We would lose to Oklahoma. Their offense is ridiculous. That is why I'd rather play Alabama. If you're going to lose it might as well be to #1 so that game against #5 through #10 will forever reside in the hypothetical. Kind of like 2011 when we got hugely lucky playing Va Tech in the Sugar Bowl instead of somebody like Boise St. or an SEC team with one more loss than the Hokies. Va. Tech is probably the only team in the Top 15 that we could have beaten and we did.