Around the Big Ten

[froot loops]

OSU will spread it out.

[The Oracle]

I actually really love Chryst as a coach. Demeanor, scheme, everything. He's a good one.

[Rocky Bleier]

OSU will spread it out.

Their scheme, their speed, the double threat of J.T. Barrett. Even a boring Michigan offense should have put up 23 today.

[WM Wolverine]

Wisconsin keeps making great hires, great athletic department.

[Rocky Bleier]

Alvarez got lucky with Chryst being a Wisconsin boy. He dominates people and doesn't pay as well as other schools.

[iam416]

As portended, 1-5-1, and not even really that good. I do feel a little short-changed by M, but considering how badly I missed some of the other games, whatever. There were 4 clear winners as the games played out and 3 toss ups (Illinois was a clear winner as the game played out...the number was never really threatened; IU was a toss-up despite winning outright--MSU had the ball first in OT and a 7 point win was entirely credible especially given Indiana's history of blowing games like this one). I was 1-3 in the clear winners. That's awful. That's not even close. Anywho, 16-15-1. Barely above water.

I fully expect to build on the good-shitty-good-shitty pattern this week. Last week's outlier should be nicely countered by this week's take. 15-10 YTD. If I can pip 2 wins this week, I stay above .500. Onward to this week's B10 slate of gloom:

Minnesota (+3) at Penn State. Line opened at 5. The Goofers may be programically incapable of beating bad FBS non-conference teams by more than 17, but that doesn't mean they can't hang within a FG of Penn State. Penn State is not good. And they're really not good when they're pulling kids from the pong table to play LB for them. But I still can't figure out if it's 2015 IU (PSU trucked a trendy bottom-feeder) or 2014 NW (PSU got trucked by a trendy bottom-feeder). It feels like a game that the Goofers should win. Betting traffic is one way. So, I'm going to back Penn State to win this one in the rain by more than 3 on a total hunch. Eh, fuck that...heel turn after I finished writing the rest of this nonsense...GOOFERS +3...I'll take the points.

Northwestern (+13') at Iowa. Line opened at 12'. Iowa is one of the few teams that has generally played NW to expected results with the exception of 2009. More Joe Germainly, Iowa has trucked NW the last two seasons. NW is still awful and now they won't have the Evanston Vortex of Suck to their advantage. Iowa, of course, just spent a full game trapped in Piscataway Analog, so they're vulnerable. This is a coin flip for me, and I'll go with Northwestern to hang around and cover the 13'. They could easily lose by 40, but I see a rather morose day of B10 football, and few things are more morose than Iowa-NW battling out to a 20-10 finish.

Rutgers (+38') at Ohio State. Line opened at 36'. Lines this big are automatic coin tosses, IMO. OSU could win by 50 if they want. Or it could be 30. Rutgers lost by 35 at Washington. Tulsa kept it to 35 against OSU in the rain. And it will be raining and crapball on Saturday. So, I'll take the 38'. I expect the number to almost be made by halftime, so it ought to be make an otherwise unwatchable 2nd half vaguely interesting.

Purdue (+10') at Maryland. In a week of moribund, enervating games, this one seems like overkill. I mean, we already have Goofers-Nits, NW-Anyone and Rutgers-Anyone. That said, I'm a fan of Maryland. I think they're on the right track and will soon challenge Penn State, or perhaps IU, for 4th in the East. But F me sideways--they've been god-awful at home in B10 games....to the tune of 1-7. Purdue, surprisingly, has been relatively pesky on the road in B10 games the last two season -- scoring one Gallant Defeat after another. And, hell, the Boilers are coming off a win and a COVER! So, christ, Boiler up with the 10 and the hook! HAZELL!!!!!

Illinois (+20') at Nebraska. Opened at 21 and dropped to that precious half point despite 66/33 UNL backing. That's fishy. That's a number that's begging for Husker action. The books apparently think giving Lovie Smith a bye week is worth 10 points. I'm going to be their huckleberry on this one. Illinois has been ripped by more than 3 TDs by UNC and WMU at the always hostile Memorial Stadium. They're now on the road...with an offense that was bullied and bludgeoned by the Broncos. Meanwhile, Tommie Armstrong is quietly building a case for the coveted Graham-George offensive player of the year. And he's a personal favorite as he's guided my B10 fantasy team to an undefeated start! Cat can ball!!!! WooooOOOT! So, I'm going full-on square play and backing the Huskerz to win by 24-28. If Newby throws the ball out of the back of the endzone again, I'm sending Wizard to kill him.

Wisconsin (+10') at Michigan. There are a couple different angles to this one. First, holy fuck, Wisky is getting 10 and the hook??!!!? Maybe Wisky is actually good. They beat LSU and MSU. They controlled both games. They fought both teams in a phone booth and won. They're not going to get beat by 10 by many teams. Second, holy fuck, M is only giving 10'?!?!??!? M hasn't been in danger of winning a game by less than 2 scores all season. M has better players up front than Wisconsin and speed and the desire to use that speed to test Wisconsin on the edge. And M will have a decided advantage at QB. In Wisky's two big wins they were able to mask their QB issues because they played a QB that was even worse. I'm very much in the 2nd camp. I think Wisconsin will have a difficult time moving the ball. I think Wisconsin's QB will be a trainwreck. M won't run the ball too much between the tackles, but they will have sucess on the edge and passing. I think M scores over 27 and, more importantly, I don't think Wisky goes over 10. So, I'll give the points and back M.

Michigan State (-6') at Indiana. This game meant something once. I mean, exactly one time...in 1987 when the winner went to the Rose Bowl. MSU won that day in Bloomington by 24. I don't know what that has to do with 2015, but it beats trying to break this game down. I'll keep it simple...a solid team is giving less than a TD to the Hoosiers. I'll back Sparty.

[Jeff Buchanan]

CFB, man. It's why I don't bet on them.

Something worth mentioning is that the Five Factors + numbers predicted a 6-7 point win for M. Hmmmmm. Wisconsin and +10 would have been a good play. Wow.

Totally and embarrassingly blew my high scoring, blow-out prediction for M. 41-20 was just wrong. I'm going back to the numbers analysis. It is correct more often than not.

[AlabamAlum]

I bet CFB, but it's an isolated game or two a month where the line is screwey. A complete cherrypick. No way I can bet a regular slate of games.

[froot loops]

As portended, 1-5-1, and not even really that good. I do feel a little short-changed by M, but considering how badly I missed some of the other games, whatever. There were 4 clear winners as the games played out and 3 toss ups (Illinois was a clear winner as the game played out...the number was never really threatened; IU was a toss-up despite winning outright--MSU had the ball first in OT and a 7 point win was entirely credible especially given Indiana's history of blowing games like this one). I was 1-3 in the clear winners. That's awful. That's not even close. Anywho, 16-15-1. Barely above water.

I was kind of leery of the Spartans roll narrative, it turns out they are terrible offensively.

[Jeff Buchanan]

PFF has been very complimentary of the Wisconsin defense of late. They think Wisconsin will run the table and with one loss face the winner of the Michigan - osu game in the BTCCG.

Theyr're also postulating that Beigle could be back for the osu game as the surgery he had on his foot was minor. I kinda doubt that. But he probably will be back shortly after that. There's no reason to rush him back as Cinchy was really good in relief.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/college-football-dominant-defense-keeps-badgers-in-big-ten-race/

[WM Wolverine]

http://www.thechampaignroom.com/2016/10/3/13148640/memorial-stadium-renovation-pictures-illinois-fighting-illini-football

[Dr. Strangelove]

I'm a fan of that place. Some cool looking upgrades, but I hope it doesn't take away from the historical feel

[WM Wolverine]

First B1G stadium I visited after Michigan and Sparty so some sentimental attachment.

[froot loops]

Site of where Coach Marty took the wind.

[iam416]

Shit, almost forgot, not that anyone cares...

Sparty (-5) vs. BYU. I'll take the points. I trust Sparty's offense not one lick.

Maryland (-3) at Penn State. Line opened at +3. 6 point move. I'll go with Penn State this weekend getting the points.

Iowa (+2) at Minnesota. Uggh. I think Iowa wins, so I'll take the 2.

Indiana (+28 ) at Ohio State. Line has dropped 4 points. Smart. OSU is overvalued. I'll take Hoosiers.

Purdue (+10) at Illinois. Kill me. Autofade Boilers. First principles.

Michigan (-30') at Rutgers. Rutgers is AWFUL. M covers by 15.