Around the Big Ten

[The Oracle]

Well done, guy.

[iam416]

CSU and M were my best plays.

Was way more 50/50 on the rest of CFB. Liked Georgia despite the fact that the books were begging you too take them. Liked Stanford in what should have been a fortunate push. Liked Washington a ton. But, also liked ASU a ton.

I need to watch/review Wisky-MSU play-by-play or something to figure out how it was 24 instead of 10. It didn't look like Wisky moved that ball that well. It looked more like their defense beat the fuck out of them their running game. Wisky can play the run. No idea how they will handle a team that isn't one-dimensional.

[WM Wolverine]

Sparty isn't as bad as the final score, those turnovers dramatically affected the final score. Wisconsin looked really good defensively, especially vs the run.

I've learned not to touch point spreads in the Pac 12; I just don't see those teams enough.

[froot loops]

Wisconsin's linebackers are really good.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Iowa v Northwestern (12:00 ESPNU)
Ohio State v Rutgers (12:00 BTN)
Michigan v Wisconsin (3:30 ABC)
Minnesota @ Penn State (3:30 BTN)
Illinois @ Nebraska (3:30 ESPN2)
Maryland v Purdue (3:30 BTN)
Indiana v Michigan State (7:30 BTN)

[iam416]

Initial takes:

Iowa ugly
OSU big
M by 13
Goofers by a FG
UNL big
Maryland by enough
MSU by less than 2 TDs

[hodgkal]

"Sparty isn't as bad as the final score, those turnovers dramatically affected the final score. Wisconsin looked really good defensively, especially vs the run."

I completely agree. Watched the replay and saw 2 pretty even teams except for the turnover margin. Very dangerous to underestimate the Spartans. They'll be pumped when we go to EL.
My hope is that the Michigan of this week won't be same team on Oct. 12th. The Harbaugh effect takes time to develop.

[hack]

Agreed. I didn't see the game, but Sparty will be ready for us, as they always are. Especially if they have less to play for otherwise.

[froot loops]

I thought the coaching staff has been a little too clever on holding out the Freshman. I'm not saying they would have been better at getting pressure on that QB but they were putting a Tight End at DE.

Ultimately O'Connor has to be better or it doesn't matter, he was B-A-D.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Remember this? Ferentz, Dantonio, and Fitzgerald the only people left

[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RrGTGhLt9w"]BTN Football Commercial 1.mov - YouTube[/ame]

[WingsFan]

Damn seems like yesterday

[Dr. Strangelove]

It's like 8 years old. Crazy right?

[WingsFan]

Im getting old

[iam416]

I fully expect to build on the good-shitty-good-shitty pattern this week. Last week's outlier should be nicely countered by this week's take. 15-10 YTD. If I can pip 2 wins this week, I stay above .500. Onward to this week's B10 slate of gloom:

Minnesota (+3) at Penn State. Line opened at 5. The Goofers may be programically incapable of beating bad FBS non-conference teams by more than 17, but that doesn't mean they can't hang within a FG of Penn State. Penn State is not good. And they're really not good when they're pulling kids from the pong table to play LB for them. But I still can't figure out if it's 2015 IU (PSU trucked a trendy bottom-feeder) or 2014 NW (PSU got trucked by a trendy bottom-feeder). It feels like a game that the Goofers should win. Betting traffic is one way. So, I'm going to back Penn State to win this one in the rain by more than 3 on a total hunch. Eh, fuck that...heel turn after I finished writing the rest of this nonsense...GOOFERS +3...I'll take the points.

Northwestern (+13') at Iowa. Line opened at 12'. Iowa is one of the few teams that has generally played NW to expected results with the exception of 2009. More Joe Germainly, Iowa has trucked NW the last two seasons. NW is still awful and now they won't have the Evanston Vortex of Suck to their advantage. Iowa, of course, just spent a full game trapped in Piscataway Analog, so they're vulnerable. This is a coin flip for me, and I'll go with Northwestern to hang around and cover the 13'. They could easily lose by 40, but I see a rather morose day of B10 football, and few things are more morose than Iowa-NW battling out to a 20-10 finish.

Rutgers (+38') at Ohio State. Line opened at 36'. Lines this big are automatic coin tosses, IMO. OSU could win by 50 if they want. Or it could be 30. Rutgers lost by 35 at Washington. Tulsa kept it to 35 against OSU in the rain. And it will be raining and crapball on Saturday. So, I'll take the 38'. I expect the number to almost be made by halftime, so it ought to be make an otherwise unwatchable 2nd half vaguely interesting.

Purdue (+10') at Maryland. In a week of moribund, enervating games, this one seems like overkill. I mean, we already have Goofers-Nits, NW-Anyone and Rutgers-Anyone. That said, I'm a fan of Maryland. I think they're on the right track and will soon challenge Penn State, or perhaps IU, for 4th in the East. But F me sideways--they've been god-awful at home in B10 games....to the tune of 1-7. Purdue, surprisingly, has been relatively pesky on the road in B10 games the last two season -- scoring one Gallant Defeat after another. And, hell, the Boilers are coming off a win and a COVER! So, christ, Boiler up with the 10 and the hook! HAZELL!!!!!

Illinois (+20') at Nebraska. Opened at 21 and dropped to that precious half point despite 66/33 UNL backing. That's fishy. That's a number that's begging for Husker action. The books apparently think giving Lovie Smith a bye week is worth 10 points. I'm going to be their huckleberry on this one. Illinois has been ripped by more than 3 TDs by UNC and WMU at the always hostile Memorial Stadium. They're now on the road...with an offense that was bullied and bludgeoned by the Broncos. Meanwhile, Tommie Armstrong is quietly building a case for the coveted Graham-George offensive player of the year. And he's a personal favorite as he's guided my B10 fantasy team to an undefeated start! Cat can ball!!!! WooooOOOT! So, I'm going full-on square play and backing the Huskerz to win by 24-28. If Newby throws the ball out of the back of the endzone again, I'm sending Wizard to kill him.

Wisconsin (+10') at Michigan. There are a couple different angles to this one. First, holy fuck, Wisky is getting 10 and the hook??!!!? Maybe Wisky is actually good. They beat LSU and MSU. They controlled both games. They fought both teams in a phone booth and won. They're not going to get beat by 10 by many teams. Second, holy fuck, M is only giving 10'?!?!??!? M hasn't been in danger of winning a game by less than 2 scores all season. M has better players up front than Wisconsin and speed and the desire to use that speed to test Wisconsin on the edge. And M will have a decided advantage at QB. In Wisky's two big wins they were able to mask their QB issues because they played a QB that was even worse. I'm very much in the 2nd camp. I think Wisconsin will have a difficult time moving the ball. I think Wisconsin's QB will be a trainwreck. M won't run the ball too much between the tackles, but they will have sucess on the edge and passing. I think M scores over 27 and, more importantly, I don't think Wisky goes over 10. So, I'll give the points and back M.

Michigan State (-6') at Indiana. This game meant something once. I mean, exactly one time...in 1987 when the winner went to the Rose Bowl. MSU won that day in Bloomington by 24. I don't know what that has to do with 2015, but it beats trying to break this game down. I'll keep it simple...a solid team is giving less than a TD to the Hoosiers. I'll back Sparty.

Other games:

Stanford (+3') at Washington. Opened at -1. Huge mover. I'll back Stanford, again, on the road. I feel much better about getting the FG this go-around.

Louisville (-2) at Clemson. Line opened at +3'. This one feels like one that Dabo will pull off. Or maybe I'm just whistling past the Louisville graveyard.

Tennessee (-3) at Georgia. I don't think Georgia is very good. Vals by 10 or more.

UNC (+11) at Florida State. I'm not sure FSU should be favored by 11 against any decent team. I'll take the points.

[Hannibal]

Minnesota should beat PSU straight up. PSU's horrific run defense plays right into the Goofers' strength.

Indiana is going to pull a big upset as soon as they can start converting big yards into points. But they turn it over a lot and commit untimely penalties like they are the 2010 RichRod Michigan offense. I just hope that they don't figure it all out against us.