Around the Big Ten

[iam416]

I think being in a state with pretty decent HS football and being an "eastern" power far outweighs getting to HV. I mean, it's easy as shit to get to MSP. Big hub. Direct flight.

[Jeff Buchanan]

My view with respect to ranking the best programs in the Big Ten is this: M and PSU have a lot in common. Through the 70s and 80s both programs were pretty good and considered to be among the nation's best CFB programs.

When PSU joined officially in '93, M and osu still dominated the conference as one and two with an occasional appearance by one of the also rans. PSU fit right in at #3 and if you look at their record through the 90s they played BT opponents tough and posted decent records but the shit hit the fan in the 2000 season loosing to any team with a pulse and going 5-7. JoePa had peaked and it was downhill from there.

M peaked in 97 with a couple of nice seasons to follow but it was down hill from 2006. The Big Ten's preeminent program for most of its modern history (post Woody) has been osu with M challenging under Schembechler and pretty much dominating the Carr/Cooper years. No more. M is but a shell of it's former self.

It has been replaced by such contenders as Wisky and Spartie. I actually think Jerry Kill is going to have something to say about the West Division Champ in 2015 and maybe going forward. Kill has to be happy he's no longer in the East.

So, right now, not based on ceilings but only looking at recent performance, this is how I see it:

As elites .....

osu
msu

Runners up ....

Wisconsin
PSU
M

On the rise (potential challengers) .......

Minnesota
?Maryland (but just isn't going to get past the crowd potentially at the top of the East)

Obviously things could change. Id' like to think they will change for M in particular. So, when you factor in ceiling, things do look, or have the potential to look, a lot different.

[iam416]

Penn State was pretty good in 2005 and 2008. And they've managed to generally be decent in most years over the past 10 seasons. Their stretch was from 2005-12 was easily 3rd best in the conference and close to Wisky. But that's in the past. Your future points are more interesting.

Maryland is an interesting call. There's some weird potential there, but I really can't see that program rising in the East. I don't see a rising tide raising all boats.

So the natural question is which program emerges in the West, if any? I think you take Iowa off the board because Ferentz is just mediocre at best. I think NW is off the board because they're NW and I honestly don't think too highly of Fitzgerald. Illinois is a trainwreck and years away.

I tend to favor UNL's name brand *if* Riley is a good fit. Wisky and Chryst would appear to have a good fit, an Wisky has a certain brand name value, at least for "running the ball." I like Kill and the Goofers, but I just don't see them getting past being an 8 win program.

None of the West teams have any inherent geographic advantage (like OSU, PSU). Only UNL has brand name value comparable to the elites. So I think if I were to answer the question I posed I'd say there won't be any West team that emerges, rather it will be a division that's an UNL-Wisky-Team C battle with the winner likely no better than 3rd best in the East.

[iam416]

Last 5 seasons:

Ohio State: 56-12 (50-5 with a legitimate HC!...heh)
MSU: 53-14
----------------
Wisconsin: 50-18
----------------
Nebraska: 47-20
----------------
Penn State: 38-25
Michigan: 38-26
----------------
Iowa: 34-30
NW: 33-30

Others all have losing records.

[entropy]

The Medium and growing (formerly Big) Ten

How elite was UNL where our fall to 4th in this league, from a record perspective, means we are forgotten on some lists...

And one of the worst 10 yr period in our history as well...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[froot loops]

The fact that some of these marquee programs become sleeping giants shows you the name doesn't go as far as the conventional wisdom indicates. Believe me, in East Lansing I heard that sleeping giant description by guys like Tim Staudt.

The name gets you so far, Penn State isn't going away, they will get recruits, so there is a high floor. But a lot of their tradition was built up on their time as an independent. They had a lot of great years beating up on pedestrian schedules. And when they went into the Big Ten they probably had their best team, but after those Kerry Collins years it hasn't been that impressive.

I kind of have the same feeling about a program like Texas. Big name, should be great recruiting but other than the Vince Young/Colt McCoy years, there has been a lot of years where they are more full of bluster than results in regards to a national championship caliber team.

You gotta have the coach/coaching staff. The only team that I can remember that could open the door with nearly any coach was those Miami teams. For about 25 years that team was stacked. Nobody will confuse Erickson and Coker with being great college coaches.

[Wild Hoss]

You gotta have the coach/coaching staff. The only team that I can remember that could open the door with nearly any coach was those Miami teams. For about 25 years that team was stacked. Nobody will confuse Erickson and Coker with being great college coaches.

Miami has had their down periods too, so its not just throwing open the doors. They ran a shit-ton of excellent ACs through back in the day there too...Chuck Pagano, Dave Wannstedt, Tommy Tubberville, Marc Trestman, Greg Schiano, Butch Davis to name some of the better-known ones. Miami wasn't just great athletes, they were very well-coached for the most part as well.

[iam416]

It's not the floor, it's the ceiling. Look at the teams that have won national titles since the inception of the BCS:

USC, Texas, Ohio State, Florida State, Miami, Alabama, Florida, LSU, Auburn, Tennessee.

I guess if you go back further you add Nebraska and Michigan to the list.

But by and large only blueblood programs are winning national titles. The Florida schools don't have the century of history but there's no question their brand value over the past 30+ years is "blue blood" -- and they're geographically well-situated. Tennessee and Auburn are borderline calls, but those schools still play in the SEC in massive stadiums with passionate crowds.

Yeah, Texas, USC, Oklahoma, Michigan, Penn State, etc. are certainly capable of sucking. You need a really good coach to be elite. But there is almost no chance that a non-brand school will win a national title. Georgia Tech in 1990. BYU in 1984. Miami in 1983 (they upstarts). Clemson in 1981 (they were definitely off-brand then). Arguably Washington in 1991. But in the past 25 years? Zero, really.

This year there is a chance with TCU (or Baylor). But by and large, no. Penn State (and M) have the potential to be in THAT exclusive club. For others it's next to impossible barring the world's largest shoe brand pouring millions into your program or waking up to the fact that you have dozens of D1 players in your backyard -- literally miles away.

So, you know, Wisconsin could (and was) better than M and PSU for awhile, but Wisconsin simply can't be as good as M and PSU could be. IMO, at least.

I know this probably hits somewhat close to home because Sparty isn't in that group -- yet. But give Dantonio some more time and they'll keeping inching closer.

[iam416]

Miami has had their down periods too, so its not just throwing open the doors. They ran a shit-ton of excellent ACs through back in the day there too...Chuck Pagano, Dave Wannstedt, Tommy Tubberville, Marc Trestman, Greg Schiano, Butch Davis to name some of the better-known ones. Miami wasn't just great athletes, they were very well-coached for the most part as well.

Yes. And let's be honest, Jimmy Johnson took HS's work and MADE Miami. Erickson was a good enough coach to keep things running. Then they hit sanctions. Butch Davis rebuilt it and, IMO, he was a damn good coach, too. The shit they've had after Davis was poor. That, and moving from the Orange Bowl was a disaster.

[froot loops]

I'd like to see Penn State actually do it. A lot of their tradition was built on beauty pageant national championship contests when they built up big records playing soft schedules, they'd play a couple tough contests and a bowl game. They've struggled since getting into the Big Ten. Hannibal, mentioned that Paterno coasted for the last 13 years. How do we know he wasn't coasting prior to getting into the Big Ten?

Wisconsin is an interesting case, they routinely reject recruits and their head coach is often at loggerheads with the AD. You're probably right about the ceiling but we'd never know, they self govern themselves. I never get the feeling they actually are shooting for a national championship, to me they seem like they are happy to win the big ten and go to the Rose Bowl.

As far as how it affects MSU, its not really a concern. They have Dantonio now, they'll be a contender as long as he's there. Once he hangs it up, it might be back to the wilderness.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I think Penn State won both of their titles in games they were widely expected to lose. Their schedule in 1982 was pretty solid too, btw

Truthfully Penn State has more natural advantages than Michigan. They're still the only traditional powerhouse on the east coast from Maine to North Carolina. PA HS football isn't what it used to be but it's still better than Michigan...

[hack]

I think Froot has this nailed.

[Hannibal]

I'd like to see Penn State actually do it. A lot of their tradition was built on beauty pageant national championship contests when they built up big records playing soft schedules, they'd play a couple tough contests and a bowl game. They've struggled since getting into the Big Ten. Hannibal, mentioned that Paterno coasted for the last 13 years. How do we know he wasn't coasting prior to getting into the Big Ten?

Wisconsin is an interesting case, they routinely reject recruits and their head coach is often at loggerheads with the AD. You're probably right about the ceiling but we'd never know, they self govern themselves. I never get the feeling they actually are shooting for a national championship, to me they seem like they are happy to win the big ten and go to the Rose Bowl.

As far as how it affects MSU, its not really a concern. They have Dantonio now, they'll be a contender as long as he's there. Once he hangs it up, it might be back to the wilderness.

There is some truth in what you say about Penn State but even with that in mind, they went 40-6 in their first four years in the B1G. That included 4-4 against UM+OSU and 4-0 in bowl games, all of which were blowouts. Since then they have had three or four teams that were a QB away from a Top 5 season. They have a ton of upside. Arguably as much as anyone in the country. They share Pennsylvania with nobody who is a serious threat and they are in prime position to lock down areas like Virginia and New Jersey which have some decent football talent. They are a lot like OSU with regards to access to talent and nobody to share it with. It's going to be tough for UM, although as we have seen lately, they are still a program that can still recruit nationally despite their recent woes.

[iam416]

I also don't think Penn State won any "beauty pageant" national titles -- well, any more than any other team in the well, non CFP UNDISPUTED Era. They earned their national title in 1982 beating UNL, Pitt and then #1 Georgia. And they definitely earned it in 1986 (people forget how really, really good that defense was).

If anything the "beauty pageant" nature of national titles cost Penn State. They were undefeated in 1968, 1969 and 1973 but didn't win a single national title (rightfully penalized for their soft "Eastern Independent" schedule. And they lost out in 1994 with an undefeated team.

They are a lot like OSU with regards to access to talent and nobody to share it with

Hanni has it. I rate Ohio State a little better situated in that regard and that's why I'd rate OSU as the "#1 job" in the B10, but I think I'd have Penn State next just a touch ahead of Michigan.

[hack]

I don't think it's going to be that tough for UM. Even with Hoke aboard and no track record of success, kids came here. Michigan has to be competent, but presuming it is, it'll be fine. If it's a lot more than competent, it'll be a lot more than fine.