The demographics explanation that most folks won't talk about -- and I understand why -- is African-American demographics. The reason no one really wants to take that angle is it's based on the premise that top football players are more likely to be AA than any other race. The number of AAs playing D1 football and NFL football in proportion to their actual population amply supports that premise. In and of itself, that's not offensive, but that sort of results based conclusion can be used for sinister explanations in other areas and hence the reluctance to embrace that sort of analysis. Totally understood.
But, let's *assume* that overwhelmingly disproportionate representation of AAs on NFL and BCS school rosters supports the conclusion. It would then follow that regions with higher AA populations would produce more top shelf football players. That would be the Southeast (see the chart below). Additionally:
1. The culture of the southeast is football dominant. And not only football dominant, but college football dominant. My *guess* is that better athletes, regardless of race, play football more frequently than in other regions. On the flipside, NYC appears to me (for a host of reasons) to be more basketball-centric. Not a lot of football players come from NYC, but the hoops players....goodness. The cultural emphasis, if any, can be an important factor in producing elite players in a given sport.
2. In the Southeast the AA population is dispersed throughout the entire region. In the MW, the AA population tends to focus on urban pockets. The significance, as I've argued previously, is that urban environments tend toward hoops (as a matter of availability). Also, based on what I know about Ohio, urban football programs tend to be god-awful. The rise of Glenville as a central football program in Cleveland was huge because it actually provided an opportunity for kids to develop their talents and skills. In the south, AAs appear more likely to play across the full spectrum of schools.
3. So, statistically, Illinois+Michigan+Pennsylvania+Ohio have a combined AA population of roughly 6.1M. Florida an Georgia alone have a combined AA population of 6M. Louisiana+Alabama+Mississippi=3.6M. And Texas and North Carolina have huge AA populations as well (5M combined).
4. A factor that probably hurts the Southeast a bit is that Midwest states, especially Northwest Ordinance states, have gads more schools than Southeast states so they actually *may* more kids playing football. That's a guess.
But, let's *assume* that overwhelmingly disproportionate representation of AAs on NFL and BCS school rosters supports the conclusion. It would then follow that regions with higher AA populations would produce more top shelf football players. That would be the Southeast (see the chart below). Additionally:
1. The culture of the southeast is football dominant. And not only football dominant, but college football dominant. My *guess* is that better athletes, regardless of race, play football more frequently than in other regions. On the flipside, NYC appears to me (for a host of reasons) to be more basketball-centric. Not a lot of football players come from NYC, but the hoops players....goodness. The cultural emphasis, if any, can be an important factor in producing elite players in a given sport.
2. In the Southeast the AA population is dispersed throughout the entire region. In the MW, the AA population tends to focus on urban pockets. The significance, as I've argued previously, is that urban environments tend toward hoops (as a matter of availability). Also, based on what I know about Ohio, urban football programs tend to be god-awful. The rise of Glenville as a central football program in Cleveland was huge because it actually provided an opportunity for kids to develop their talents and skills. In the south, AAs appear more likely to play across the full spectrum of schools.
3. So, statistically, Illinois+Michigan+Pennsylvania+Ohio have a combined AA population of roughly 6.1M. Florida an Georgia alone have a combined AA population of 6M. Louisiana+Alabama+Mississippi=3.6M. And Texas and North Carolina have huge AA populations as well (5M combined).
4. A factor that probably hurts the Southeast a bit is that Midwest states, especially Northwest Ordinance states, have gads more schools than Southeast states so they actually *may* more kids playing football. That's a guess.
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