Around the Big Ten

[lineygoblue]

The Lions spend money and change coaches more than some people change their underwear, but it hasn't shown up in the W-L column since 1957. Jeff hadn't even started shaving yet in those days.

Spending big bucks on coaches gives the appearance that they're doing something, but results on the field are evidence that its working or not.

Army didn't spend big bucks to get their new coach, but somebody obviously did their homework, and got a guy who can flat-out coach. He might not get the same results at a place like Bammer or Klempson, but he's doing what he was hired to do. Turn the program around, and win the games in front of him. Beating Navy helps a lot too.

Warde Manuel needs to pay attention to that.

[hack]

Well they aren't spending the big bucks and then secretly scheming to lose to their rivals.

[lineygoblue]

I don't think I said that. If that is the impression I gave, I humbly apologize.

My point is with the big bucks being spent for the all star coaching staff, we don't seem to be getting an equal return on the investment.

[hack]

Agreed. Just adding to your point. IMO the coaching search that brought us Beilein was instructive. There were no expectations at that point, and there was no hubris. Martin, who would soon blow the football coaching search, in this case led an intelligent and pressure-free process that resulted in an excellent choice. What seems different about a football-coach search is the number of things prioritized other than winning - do it clean, be a Michigan Man, please the alumni close to the program, give the impression that you'll retire in the job, the spread is witchcraft, etc. etc. The amount of ego and the number of cooks in the kitchen and all that is just insane at those times. And it kind of looked a little bit like that this year now that basketball comes with expectations too. It's awfully hard even for a competent AD to run a coaching search here because the mandate is so much more complex than finding a coach that wins. And it's never been a given that the AD will be competent. What's scary about this Harbaugh situation is that if he's not the answer, man, I don't know who the heck would be and I have zero faith in a process led by Manuel but guided by all the powers that have their say. Maybe slightly more positive feeling about that than when Dave Brandon led a search, but still. If Michigan is ever going to get a truly elite football coach they'll have backed into it.

[froot loops]

There is nothing saying the next guy that comes along wouldn't be a home run hire. Nobody ever knows. Given the trends of how college football is going, what Harbaugh is trying to do is swim against the current. 5 years on and the current is even stronger as more NFL teams are adapting college type spread offenses. His way could still work but he's yet to find a good NFL caliber quarterback, that was the whole argument about how it was going to work. He knew how to get quarterbacks to the NFL so either they were going to flock there or he was going to find and mold the talent. Find a quarterback and a lot of the problems go away.

[hack]

Two things here.

1. Yes -- Michigan could very well nail the next HC hire. My sense is just that they'd be more likely to do so by accident than via a process designed to deliver that result. And of course timing is everything. The candidate pool varies every year, and the vacancy must come at the right time.

2. Exactly, re the QB play. Sort of. I think. I agree that Harbaugh was supposed to deliver excellent QB play, and after Rudock's maturation, it looked like he was going to. But it hasn't happened that way since that, with a string of QBs either regressing or never earning the trust required to really go at it. Either he's on a terrible run in terms of evaluating the raw talent he's given to work with, or he's lost it. Or, maybe you go back to scheme. I think there very well could be something to be said for the ``no offensive identity'' stuff. He's moving away from manball, but it's not necessarily a full move, and it very well could be that the QBs are suffering the effects of hybridization. Playing Army was a reminder of the value of doing just a few things, and practicing them so many times so you can do them damn well. Stands in clear contrast with all the stuff M's players are being asked to do, with the Drevno>Frey>Warinner shift, with weird stuff like giving a TE his first carry out of the backfield on a key third down against OSU, throwing in 2-QB packages or Pepcat, etc. etc. It's a diversified grab-bag of approaches and shifting identities, in which the only constant is mediocre execution, and the HC that oversees it all. And also a refusal to put players in a position to succeed. Patterson looks natural and instinctive on the move, but in the pocket where Harbaugh wants him to stay his decisionmaking is always iffy and usually ponderous, and often overly cautious. I get the limitations of rollouts and shrinking the field in doing so, but do more. And give him the damn jumpballs to the giant WR with great hands. Give him easy stuff to complete. I thought that maybe the Gattis hire was going to be his Come to RichRod moment, but maybe not. I've always historically agreed that it's about the Jimmies and Joes and not the Xs and Os, but in this case it could very well be that JH's coping with the game moving on from his offnsive approach is really the issue. I don't know. Just talking it out.

[hack]

I'd also be pretty interesting in thinking about the counterfactual in which Grant Newsome wasn't hurt. For the long term it sure seems like Warinner is a better OL coach than Drevno was, but an intact OL maybe keeps Speight healthy in '16 and '17, and looking like a very good college QB and NFL prospect. Speight was hurt in that Iowa game that was the one loss coming into the OSU game. It's easy to make the argument that JH's tenure here has been defined by three very unlucky breaks -- the crazy '15 MSU finish, the Newsome injury that led to OL chaos for a few years until Warinner came in and stablized things, and the crazy OSU '16 game. Maybe all of this manball/spread purgatory stuff is an overreaction to unlucky bounces, and without those Harbaugh could have stayed the course with his own offensive approach he's comfortable with. Again, just guessing.

Though, that said, it wasn't an unlucky break that Michigan's recruiting at OT was so crappy. Drevno couldn't close on some prospects and didn't bring in Alaric Jackson, who would have really helped.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'll reference talent's post about the tressell, ufm, day transitions. The point he made is that coaches have a thing they do well and rely on. For tressel it was man-ball, play to the D. ufm was an IZ/OZ power guy and as talent points out, it was day coming aboard as OC along with kevin wilson in the back-ground that got ufm to back off power and look at the ZR/RPO offense. Good take that having Barrett graduate and then have haskins bloom under day/wilson in ufm's last season was a fortuitous coincidence for ufm and osu. The success of that process was showcased last season when M got waxed by that offense.

talent went on to note that Harbaugh may be going through the same sort of thing that ufm went through when wilson, then day showed up. Slow to let go but then embraced it. Hack makes the point that, yeah, Gattis was hired, but JH isn't quite ready to let completely go of what he knows and defaults to.

The game in Madison is going to be a truth teller with regard to this discussion. Fold in M's poor road game performances under Harbaugh that have a history of being ridiculously conservative, especially when the fast start stuff goes to shit. I'll be watching for some semblance of decent ZR/RPO success early and if their are struggles, does Harbaugh let Gattis keep plugging away or does he yank back the play sheet from Gattis and turtle?

BTW, here's how the ZR/RPO offense is supposed to look. This is a video clip of Odell Beckham of the Brown's running a 90 yard touch down play off an RPO. It's been pointed out that this is the exact same play that Gattis dialed up for Black that Army defended v. Michigan better than the jet's did v. the Browns.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1173786332415442944

[iam416]

[hack]

I don't know that Gattis has to be a genius or guru though. Use the very nice stable of athletic skill players on offense the way dozens of OCs would and it should be fine.

[lineygoblue]

How the hell, based on M's first two games, is THAT team going to go into Madison and contend with, let alone beat, a very good Wisconsin football team based on THEIR first two games?

I'm going back further than that. When Michigan got de-pantsed against Indiana last year, my heart sank, because I knew the ohio coaching staff was watching, and they were up next. Sure enough my fears were realized.

Afterward, Michigan was selected to go to Atlanta and face Florida. For about 2 days, I allowed myself to think that Michigan might actually find a way to bounce back from 62-39, and show some self-respect. I even considered going to the game, even though the expenses involved would have cost me the price of a Donald Trump bachelor party.

I finally came to my senses, and decided not to go, because why in the world would I want to make a 1400 mile trek to watch them get de-pantsed by yet another team? Players started checking out, injuries started mounting, and it was obvious to me what was about to happen.

Fast forward to this week. After seeing yet another de-pantsing by Army and MTSU (of all people, and at HOME) how in the world could I ever mount the kind of optimism that is needed to believe that these guys can go into Madison and defeat a serious Big Ten Title contender?

I've learned my lesson. I'm facing it, and I accept it. This team has a ceiling of 8-4, and a likely finish of 7-5. And if they're not careful, they could even drop to .500 To get to 8-4, they've got to find a way to beat either Iowa or MSU at home. I'm not sure they can beat either of them. A road win in Madison is a fantasy expectation.

[Jeff Buchanan]

talent, I agree the Wisconsin game may not be dispositive in sorting out the accuracy of these way to early takes on M football - it's players, coaches and team chemistry within it.

But I do believe it's going to be a truth teller regarding M's capacity to run the Gattis offense. To wit: if you have a HC that keeps a heavy hand on the offense as a means of doing what he knows best, diluting what we anticipated was going to be this speed in space offense (and make no mistake, that implies a ZR/RPO offense) and a QB that can't make the reads and/or threaten the run, we're not going to see the impact of what a real ZR/RPO offense played by Michigan would be.

I don't think Michigan football can do well going forward with a one foot in and one foot out commitment to what we thought we were going to get with Gattis as the OC.

[iam416]

[THE_WIZARD_]

liney:

hello

[lineygoblue]

I know... fear the wrath of the mighty Frost ....

Hi Wiz!