Around the Big Ten

[iam416]

In short, M played a better game imo on both offense and more so defensively than given credit for. Defense made critical mistakes at worst times that are hopefully correctable with coaching. Not to the same extent, same for offense after a second viewing. Much more optimistic about PSU after another viewing.

Yeah, I get it. I've read a little on the PFF and I'm sure UFR will laud the shit out of them. But, I'm leery of the metrics/advanced stats approach to football. It strikes me as least compatible with that approach of the three major sports. For example, I'm still LingMAO at the Browns and their Moneyball approach.

I tend to trust my eyes knowing I don't have access to the full field film or play calls.

When CU had their QB, they had 4 successful drives out of 7 including the missed FG as a successful drive. They had 2 3 and outs.

When the backup came in, they produced 18 total yards in 7 drives with 17 of them coming on the very last drive. IMO, there's really no getting around that. There's no discounting that. CU put up 21 offensive points and 300 yards in one half + one drive w/ their 1st string guy. There's not much shine PFF or UFR can put on that for me.

They settled down offensively, but they were greatly aided by ST.

I still don't like their RBs at all. I don't care what Smith did against Florida (another Mgo special), IMO he's mediocre. Speight has some potential, but he had some really dicey throws. The bulk of his success came with really short, wide open throws. And CU covered their WRs fairly well. I can tell you OSU is going to line up in press man and dare M to beat them.

M is going to truck PSU because it's a better matchup.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yeah, I get it. I've read a little on the PFF and I'm sure UFR will laud the shit out of them. But, I'm leery of the metrics/advanced stats approach to football......... I tend to trust my eyes knowing I don't have access to the full field film or play calls.

Not me. There's a quantitative basis to metrics/advanced stats that corrects or balances a lot of what the eyeball wrongly sees or can't see due to the problems you note above.

When CU had their QB, they had 4 successful drives out of 7 including the missed FG as a successful drive. They had 2 3 and outs.

I won't fault you for not picking through the UFR like I obsessively do but, there are lot of different ways to describe your view above. Like this:

CU scored 21 points in the first 17 minutes of the game, M scored 7 (on a ST blocked punt). 13 minutes later and at the half M lead 24-21. During the remainder of the game CU scored 7 more points on a huge busted play that produced a 70 yard TD pass. Meanwhile M scored another 21 while dominating the LOS, like you would have expected they should for the entire game. Shit happens. For this game it was 17 minutes to start the game and a long TD to start the second half. The rest of the game wnet pretty much as expected.

There were three big plays, admittedly something M does too much of, but the reasons for it this season are abundantly clear. Missing Jourdan Lewis is a major factor because it's forcing Brown to use a mix of players on the back end that just don't work as well as when Lewis is present in that mix. You may be skeptical. I'm not.

46 snaps in the run game against UCF [and] they have 63 yards. After the 21 points scored by CU they converted 1/13 3rd down attempts. I can't remember the stat lines break down and its late and I don't want to go back and look it up but after the cluster-fuck tht was the first 13 mintues, it was something like 100 yards for them most of which was 70y TD throw to open the 3rd, 2 first downs to M's nearly 300 yards of offense and 18 some first downs.

IMO, the 3 big plays and the first 17 bleak minutes of the game during which CU took it to M skew the viewers perspective of how competitive this game was or wasn't. You can color this plenty of different ways based on how you paint the picture. The game was not competitive and M played a CU team that is a lot better than most expected it would be. Would not be at all surprised if they had a good finish in the PAC12. They have a couple of stud players on both sides of the ball.

When the backup came in, they produced 18 total yards in 7 drives with 17 of them coming on the very last drive. IMO, there's really no getting around that. There's no discounting that. CU put up 21 offensive points and 300 yards in one half + one drive w/ their 1st string guy. There's not much shine PFF or UFR can put on that for me.

Look, why was Liufau out? Because he got the shit pounded out of him by a dominant performance by M's DLs and LBs including some vicious and legal hits by Peppers and Hurst. That's football. Win with cruelty. Tough shit for CU. You run the spread and put your QB out there as an option guy and have him run or throw like Liufau is asked to do for 2 and 1/2 quarters, you pay the price. Wishing the same harassment (of course not injuries - heh) for jtb when he faces, hopefully, the same DL.

They settled down offensively, but they were greatly aided by ST.

No. You may disagree. While ST played an important role in this game they had no impact on settling down the offense. Maybe gave them good field position but M made them pay for there own ST dumbfuckery. Again part of the game. M exploited it.

I still don't like their RBs at all. I don't care what Smith did against Florida (another Mgo special), IMO he's mediocre. Speight has some potential, but he had some really dicey throws. The bulk of his success came with really short, wide open throws. And CU covered their WRs fairly well.

I agree with you mostly here ...... except the last line in your original post where you say," I can guarantee you OSU is going to line up in press-man-coverage and dare (M) to throw. Good. Do it. Make M's day. Who on osu's DL is going to break down Speight's protection? Yeah, I read Eleven Warriors tribute to the unrecognized efforts of osu's DL in osu's trucking of OU. I'd call osu's described success there to the blight of the Big12's soft interior offensive lines across all their member teams and particularly OU. This will be an interesting match-up by seasons end between osu's DL and M's OL. I look forward to it.

[iam416]

Meanwhile M scored another 21 while dominating the LOS, like you would have expected they should for the entire game. Shit happens. For this game it was 17 minutes to start the game and a long TD to start the second half. The rest of the game wnet pretty much as expected.

The game was always going to be whether CU could overcome M's LOS dominance with its offensive scheme. With their starting QB they did. I mean, you can dismiss it all you want, but they scored 21 offensive points (7 more on defense) and put up 300 yards in roughly 32 minutes. They had at least 2 long drives -- one ending in a missed FG -- and only 2 three and outs.

I understand the inclination to latch onto anything that helps you whistle past the graveyard. Personally, I would just own it as bad outing owing, in large part, to missing 2 very important starters and 1 other contributor.

Look, why was Liufau out? Because he got the shit pounded out of him by a dominant performance by M's DLs and LBs including some vicious and legal hits by Peppers and Hurst. That's football. Win with cruelty. Tough shit for CU

He got hurt on a play where he was barely hit. It was a fluke. Sure, it's football. If M's gameplan is to knock out the good QB to get to the bad QB that will work way less often than not.

Would not be at all surprised if they had a good finish in the PAC12. They have a couple of stud players on both sides of the ball.

Yeah, we'll see. If Montez plays they won't win another game.

Good. Do it. Make M's day. Who on osu's DL is going to break down Speight's protection?

No one you've heard of or respect, so, yeah. OSU has a bunch of no-names on the DL and in the secondary. Can't imagine how tragic it would be for those second-rate dudes to put the clamps down on the Harbaughffense. Actually, TBH, I'm a little surprised you don't know who they are, but, eh...whatever.

FYI, my comments are limited to M's performance against CU, which I found lacking. But, it's a single game. Whatever. You don't read too much into it. I remember when Hoke pounded the Goofers 42-13 or when Harbaugh pounded Evanston High, 38-0. Those were dominant asswhippings of supposed decent teams. I also remember Lloyd getting run off the field by Oregon 39-7. I think in each of those years, the team came back to the mean over the course of the season.

And I still think M's "mean" is pretty good. With Lewis their defense is very good, though I still think LB play is shaky. I'm far less bullish on their offense. But that was my position in the offseason, too -- M's offense isn't good enough for M to be "elite" -- they can make the CFP, but they don't have the offense to win. Nothing I've seen thus far has changed my opinion.

I will say I expect M to totally destroy Penn State this weekend. Penn State is an awful road team. They are 2-7 under Franklin on the road. They beat Rutgers by 3 and IU by 6. That's it. And they've been routinely trucked by OSU and MSU on the road. If the game were in HV then maybe it's a 14-17 point game. As it is not, I think M wins by roughly 30 -- maybe 38-7 w/ PSU getting a TD late.

As it relates to OSU, it's hard to tell w/o Lewis. Ohio State will create slot mismatches. If they play OSU w/o Lewis it will be ugly. I mean, they put Samuel in the slot and he's proven a real cover problem. I don't think you can possibly leave your 3rd CB or a S on him 1v1. Further, OSU actually has a legit running game. The play fakes that froze Peppers and the LBs to allow for one easy slant after another are actually going to have meaning when OSU runs them. Not only that, but they also have a QB that can pull the ball and run. There's still weeks to go. I doubt we'll see M play another team that is closer to what OSU can do -- I know they play IU, but IU is poop. So, it'll be a steady diet of manball offenses that M will eat alive and then they go to Columbus.

[Hannibal]

I still don't like their RBs at all. I don't care what Smith did against Florida (another Mgo special), IMO he's mediocre. Speight has some potential, but he had some really dicey throws. The bulk of his success came with really short, wide open throws. And CU covered their WRs fairly well. I can tell you OSU is going to line up in press man and dare M to beat them.

At least Smith and Isaac are mediocre. I like what I have seen out of Evans so far. But there's not much they can do when there is just a big pile of bodies at the LOS on every running play, which is the way that it has been the past couple of games.

[WM Wolverine]

Most those yards came on 4 big plays, mostly big mistakes by defensive backs.

[Wild Hoss]

Most those yards came on 4 big plays, mostly big mistakes by defensive backs.

That's kinda how offensive football works though, especially at the college level; chuck yardage is critical. So then is its prevention a big part of playing defense at a high level. If it happens once or twice, OK. Four times...you're just getting beat, either individually, schematically, or both.

It happens. 2015 saw all-time records for national average in Scoring, Total Offense, and YPA. Those numbers aren't coincidence....that's life in the RPO Era.

[Mainevent]

And isn't that kind of the point, UM's secondary is having a hard time covering guys? There were chances to make plays against that secondary in the 2nd half too, but the D-line pressure and the freshman QB prevented that from happening (though they did have a dropped TD pass on the flea flicker). Until Lewis gets back/they start getting better play out of the other guys back there (particularly the S) they are going to need that D-line to be a nightmare.

[iam416]

Sensible.

[THE_WIZARD_]

cogently coherent

[iam416]

This week in the B10 and CFB:

Michigan (-19) vs. Penn State. Line opened at 16 and is steaming toward 21. It'd have to get to 28 before I'd even consider not backing M. Both teams play roughly the same way. One team has the best coaching staff in CFB and a massive talent advantage. I think M wins by 31.

Iowa (-12') at Rutgers. Rutgers covered the number last week at home against the mighty Lobos. After falling behind by 21. And due mostly to Janarion Grant on ST. Iowa played a far better team last week. I expect a methodical beatdown and will return to first principles--fade Rutgers.

Indiana (-7') vs Wake Forest. I lost a similar ACC-B10 Matchup of Fecality last week. I'm stubbornly going to take the points again in this titantic battle of unbeatens. Wake me up before you go go!

Minnesota (-17) vs Colorado State. CSU has sort of regrouped after getting asswailed by the Buffs. The Goofers come off a bye week. Surely you don't want to give that braintrust a whole extra week to prepare....they might figure out how to run more than 1 play from 1 with 20 seconds left! In any event, the Goofers have played 8 non-conference games at home since 2014. They have won by more than 17 twice -- against two FCS schools. They failed to beat 17 against the likes of Akron, Ohio, San Jose and the Mighty Beaver. Colorado State is poo, but that, in no way, disqualifies them from hanging within 17 of the Goofers. I'll back the suckass Rams.

Michigan State (-5) vs Wisconsin. Opened at 6. I love MSU as a dog. DISRESPECT! MSU as a favorite is less appealing. MSU looked really good beating ND and Wisky looked like vomit against Georgia State. Yet, the line is less than TD and dropping. Discounting for homefield, bettors think it's a 2ish point game. I tend to agree. I expect quarterback play that will make the Ghost of Bill Walsh weep. I expect running attacks that will make the ghost of Woody Hayes smile. If the flying wedge were still legal, I'd expect it every play. So, yeah, I'll take the Badgers and the points in this one. I'll say 16-13 either way.

Nebraska (-7') at Evanston High. Opened at 6. This series has been really close since UNL nutted up a joined the big boys. The only blowout was two years ago by UNL at Evanston in front of 22,000 strong. I just can't get past how fucking awful NW's offense is. It's possible -- even likely -- that Tommie and the UNL offense get sucked into the Evanston vortex of suck that frequently reduces otherwise competent teams to eye-bleedingly awful shells of themselves. But even so, if they can muster 20 I think they cover. So, I'll go against the overall trend and back UNL to win by 14 or more.

Purdue (-6) vs Nevada. I saved this for last hoping basic human decency would prevail and the game would cancelled and, hopefully, both programs banned from fielding football teams for the remainder of the season. Purdue has won 7 games in the past 3 seasons, but all 7 wins have been by 6 or more (6 have been by 9 or more), including last year's 10 point humiliation of the Corn People. God, why am I backing them. Anywho, the point is that when Purdue wins, they do so IN STYLE!!!!! I'll back the Boilers to win and go with the trend that they'll do so IN STYLE!!! In so doing, I'm shitting on first principles -- always fade the Boiler. Dumb.

Bye Week: OSU, Turtle, Lovies

Other games of note:

Clemson (-9') at Georgia Tech. Down from 13. It's as if people think GT is good. I'll take Clemson.

Baylor (-8') vs Okie State. Baylor hasn't been Art Briles Baylor. Ordinarily I'd expect to score 70 against this shitass defense. I'll say 45 which puts it right on the edge of covering, IMO.

Louisville (-27) at Marshall. Opened at -19. You might say bettors watched Louisville throttle FSU and Marshall lose at home to AKRON, 65-38.

Texas A&M (-6) vs Arkansas. I expect Bert to keep this really close, possibly control most of the game, and lose in heartbreaking fashion. So, I'll take the 6.

Ole Miss (-6') vs Georgia. Opened at 2'. I'll take the points.

Tennessee (-6') vs Florida. Opened at 10. No feeling on this. Not even that interested in it.

Stanford (-3) at UCLA. I'll give the points all day.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Iowa (-12) seems a really, really good bet

[WM Wolverine]

The hope talent is that Ms first year starters don't make as many of those huge mistakes theyve made the last couple games. Subtract three plays and CU is under 200 yards of total offense.

[UMStan White]

"subtract three plays and CU is under 200 yards of total offense"

The problem is that UM is giving up too many long yardage plays most of which translate directly into points.

[Hannibal]

I like Arky to pull the upset this weekend.

[iam416]

The hope talent is that Ms first year starters don't make as many of those huge mistakes theyve made the last couple games. Subtract three plays and CU is under 200 yards of total offense.

I think M's defense will be fine. I don't think they were fine against CU. But with Lewis back they'll be fine. As I've said, M's defense isn't what, IMO, keeps them from being elite.