Around the Big Ten

[hack]

PSU was at home and needed that many overtimes to beat a team that had a criminally stupid offense and a true freshman covering their best WR. Michigan can't possibly be that stupid AGAIN, and is at home this year.

[Hannibal]

Both teams lost some significant pieces but Michigan has vastly better recruits coming up to take their place. Emphasis on "recruits", but not necessarily players.

[Jeff Buchanan]

It's not a matter of being "stupid." It's talent and development. Given that PSU's/MSU's and M's talent are probably about equal. Is there anything you've seen that indicates that M does a better job of developing it's talent than either MSU or PSU?

No?

Of course not. The evidence to the contrary is overwhelming.

I want to think things are looking up. However, I'm not drinking any of the typical fall camp cool-aid. I am more skeptical about M's football fortunes for 2014 than I have ever been ...... in 50 years of following it.

..... and then you opine, "Michigan can't possibly be that stupid AGAIN, ......."

Hack, I know you. Yes they (Hoke) can.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Both teams lost some significant pieces but Michigan has vastly better recruits coming up to take their place. Emphasis on "recruits", but not necessarily players.

Maybe ...... rank these three HC and their staff's with regard to their proven track record of player development or, if you want to call it this, getting the most out of the players on the field:

Brady Hoke

Mark Dantonio

James Franklin

MSU has the depth and system stability to re-load much like elite teams do. They're probably on the margins of elite talent but Dantonio is a really good coach. Franklin has an excellent resume and that he made PSU competitive in 2013 after the dick-heads of the NCAA tried to wipe them out is a testament to the validity of that resume. Hoke ...... come on, you can't be serious.

[drok]

This is Franklin's first year as PSU's coach.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yeah, that was Obrien who overcame the NCAA silliness.

Still, my point remains. Franklin did do a nice job in developing 2-3* talent at Vanderbilt.

[hack]

They've lost Borges and gained Nussmeier. Hoke can be that stupid again, but Nussmeier won't be as stupid as Borges.

Player development? Hard to know given the coaching change. But, bottomline, HCA plus no Borges. That's plenty reason to expect a home win.

[Hannibal]

Penn State was worse than us last year -- slightly. They lost by 20 to Indiana and they lost by 14 to Minnehaha. They gave up 400 rushing yards in a 63-14 blowout loss to OSU. They needed OT to beat a suckass Illinois team. They needed some epic coaching stupidity and a couple of missed field goals by our sure-footed kicker to beat us. They are doing some serious hole plugging this year with lots of 2* and 3* athletes. Some of them really young. I like Hackenberg, I like the TEs, and I love their defensive line. Beyond that, they have some huge issues.

[entropy]

it's still about matchups..

[Jeff Buchanan]

They've lost Borges and gained Nussmeier. Hoke can be that stupid again, but Nussmeier won't be as stupid as Borges.

Player development? Hard to know given the coaching change. But, bottomline, HCA plus no Borges. That's plenty reason to expect a home win.

I'm not 100% convinced some of the stupid stuff Borges ran came right from Hoke. There is some evidence Hoke is not involved in game day play calling but I'm more certain that he shaped the game plan as it was developed. And Borgattison delivered by almost certainly directing that Borges limit the QB's ability to change the offensive play call at the LOS - something that routinely delivered negative plays, going into a shell when there was a lead to protect, Mattison directing the idiotic strategy of repeatedly playing corners 10 yards off the receivers at the snap giving up the underneath stuff with embarrassing regularity to any opposing QB or coach who cared to advantage themselves of those gifts.

Hanni points out some PSU issues, yes. But I'm pretty sure, unit for unit, on paper and right now, I could match those to an equal number of M's weaknesses ..... the OL and DL being the most prominent. You lose those two battles and most of the time you lose the game.

Every BT coach has the blueprint for stopping Michigan's offense and even though it might be somewhat new under Neussmeir, its going to be an IZ/OZ/PA type of offense, much like Borges ran, and 'till I see it differently with my own eyes, as of right now, its an offense that's not going to be any better than last year's offense. Sure, I understand simpler is better and MAYBE that will help. I have to see it work first.

But, I'm not going to overboard predicting a PSU win in AA. But, as far as I am concerned, there are maybe only two games on the schedule that the coaching staff would have to try hard to lose (Miami and ASU). PSU is not among them. That could be a loss pretty much like ND, MSU and osu could be.

None of the pre-season CFB rags or TV talking heads that I even listen to are talking up Michigan. A ton of capital has been squandered over the last decade. It's going to take a really good season and probably a trip, if not a win, in the CCG to move M back into the top 15 CFB teams, a place that for most of my CFB watching days - the last 8 years excluded - M easily occupied.

It's been a long time.

[iam416]

Penn State, IMO, will not be particularly good. If you put that team in Indiana uniforms everyone would properly value them.

Hanni's analysis is correct.

[Hannibal]

Agree on many of your points Jeff. I'm looking to the Penn State game as a measuring stick affair more than anything. They are plugging in four new starters on the O-line, no Allen Robinson, 65 scholarships. Some of their Plan 'A' guys have been guys like Jared Wangler and Ross Douglass that we plucked away as Plan 'B' guys. As shaky as we are in some spots, there's not a single recruiting hole on the team anymore, except for arguably center, where the only blue-chipper is Kugler. It's all development at this point. If you ask me, PSU has no right to come into the Big House this year and hang within a score of us. It should be a beating. Should. If that beaten down program, also loaded with 3* freshman and sophomores on the two deep, can beat us, it would be the final nail in the coffin for Hoke for me.

[Hannibal]

Venric Mark trasnferring from NfW and their leading receiver is out for the year too.

That game just got a bit easier for us.

[iam416]

Michigan will out-talent Penn State at roughly 42 of the 44 two-deep spots. If Hoke loses to Penn State at home, it's an epic disaster. I think Penn State is far closer to the team UFM could have hung 90 on than the team that somehow beat Wisky in Madison.

I will be torn. If I knew for certain a loss would doom Hoke, I'd probably root for Penn State to lose. Heh. But given the shrewd patience and astute long-term thinking of Brandon, Hoke could lose that game and still survive. Talk about win-win!

[hack]

That could very well be the signature loss Hoke needs to cement his legacy at Michigan. But I still have no faith in the hiring process given the egos and hubris, so the timing of a firing should ideally be based on who the replacement is and when he can come. If that means another year with the current regime then so be it.

I'm increasingly open to OP's idea of Nussmeier getting a look as an interim. It's a make/break year for everybody. I'll need to see a lot better from this defense before feeling like Mattison would be a serious loss. If we elevated Nussmeier and it meant losing Mattison, then I might be plenty willing to roll with what Nussmeier comes up with.