Around the Big Ten

[Rob F]

Hoss shoots...HE SCOOORES!!!!!!!!!

LOL

[Optimus Prime]

Shouldn't you boys be getting back to work? LOL

[hack]

LOL @ the fair-weather pussy in Miami trying to shame the Men of Four Seasons Country. Don't forget to bring your shawl to the movie theatre tonight OP. That A/C gives you a real chill after a while!

We'll be up here sipping our whiskies by the fire after a nice hardy day full of The Manly Arts.

[Rob F]

My take on all this expansion:

I would have been perfectly happy to see us stop at 12 teams. ND (a school I have long wanted for the conference) has had their opportunities and thumbed their nose at the B1G enough times. Screw 'em! Maryland and Rutgers? Hell, other than a few TV sets in the east, neither team is a plus in any way that matters to the vast majority of us.

If the B1G felt they had no choice but to expand ---and I know that plenty of reasons exist that make sense---then I would have skipped the phase completely that was just completed of adding Maryland and Rutgers and gone directly to the 16 team level (IMO, too many, but far far less unwieldly than 20) by going hard at the prize plums out there and giving each of them the ultimatum that they would be taking 4 and no more. I would have had them also spell out directly to each that there were "tier levels" of schools that would get first shot as being the top targets, giving each a deadline and then moving on.

Those tiers? IMO (with the AAU / CIC requirements in mind to satisfy those needs for research, etc.) the first tier offers should have gone to those schools that brought the best balance of plus effect to the league: UNC, Texas, ND, and GT are the ones I see as most desirable. The next tier to get offered if any of the above pass (as ND and Texas most likely would) would be UVA, Kansas, Duke, and FSU. All schools that have a lot to offer, as well as some negatives, too, such as Duke's lack of any perceptible football program.

Third and final tier of interest would have been the leftovers from all the schools I've seen mentioned, including Maryland, BC, and Rutgers. But be honest to the administrations of those schools and let them know right off the bat that if they want an offer that it's only coming if other better targets drop off the radar first.

Geographical balance to this plan should be a secondary concern at best. While travel distance would be a valid concern that screens out FSU from being a realistic possibility, it shouldn't be one of the biggest reasons when looking at geographical balance when setting up divisions or "pods" (I hate that word, too).

Like I already said, though, ND really has had plenty of opportunities. Only reasons I'd consider adding them are all the plusses they bring, but to be honest, this has to be spelled out to them as now or NEVER. And I still don't think they'll bite...

[hack]

``Pods'' is very futuristic. As is The Big Ten right now.

[WM Wolverine]

Population projections that go out 30+ years say the B10 was going to fall behind the Pac 12, SEC and ACC pretty significantly. Adding the states of Nebraska, New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia (& DC) & North Carolina would fix that isssue in a big way...

Not only does expansion fix the midwests 'demographics' problem but it nearly kills the B10's only competition (ACC) in the north and they'd at least have equal footing in the mid-atlantic versus its southern competition, the SEC. On the football field, this [proposed] expansion (Nebraska, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina and potentially 2 of Duke, FSU & GT) is underwhelming unless Florida State (rumors are they reached out to the B10 and now the B10 is seriously considering them) is added.

[Whitley]

You have to wonder that Florida State not being AAU is a non starter for some in the Big Ten though. NC State is thought to be pretty near AAU status. It could be that the Big Ten takes them.

[Wild Hoss]

Population projections that go out 30+ years say the B10 was going to fall behind the Pac 12, SEC and ACC pretty significantly. Adding the states of Nebraska, New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia (& DC) & North Carolina would fix that isssue in a big way...

Meh. Population growth in the south is driven by Mexicans. Their growth rates for whites and blacks- the consumers of college football- will take a lot longer to catch up. Long enough that predicting the same trends to hold true would be foolish.

[whodean]

I think you are discounting rust belt citizens moving to the sun belt, which has been happening for some time.

[hack]

Either way, it would be foolish to base plans on that. Not much of a clue what the economy's going to look like in 20 or 30 years. The south did well luring manufacturing jobs by competing on taxes and whatnot, but it's not like the US is suddenly the industrial powerhouse it once was. Hard to know what comes next, although the weather is definitely a big factor.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Meh, weather is a big factor in drawing retirees, not growing your economy. The Pacific Northwest has been growing rapidly for decades and their weather makes you suicidal for half the year.

People will go where the jobs are. The things that made the South attractive to businesses and factories was the low cost of living, the low taxes, and workers who had no history of unionism and were happy just to have a job. All of those are changing gradually. In 30 years time, there's no telling if the South will still have a significant advantage. Population growth brings all kinds of unanticipated problems and inevitably causes property values & the cost of living to go up. AND puts pressure on the govt infrastructure, making it harder and harder to continue on with a low tax/minimal govt service plan.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I also don't know about everywhere in the South, but I recently saw census data for Texas. The state's population grew by over 20% between 2000 and 2010. But more than 2/3 of that population growth was in the Hispanic community.

One, Hispanics are expected to become to new majority in Texas by 2030. Two, changes are coming to Texas politics as the establishment becomes less and less dominated by conservative white guys. Three, the value of all this growth to the Big12 may be overstateed; it's not at all clear how much interest the Hispanic community (but especially recently immigrated and illegals) as a whole has in collegiate sports.

[Wild Hoss]

Hispanic participation in D1 football is around 2.5 percent of total. That number hasn't changed substantially since 1999...in fact it was lower in 2010 (latest reporting date) than 1999.

Across all sports its increased from 3.0 to 4.2% in that timeframe for men, 2.4 to 4.2% for women. Baseball, volleyball and water polo (?) are the sports with the Hispanic participation. Doesn't look like much of a goldmine in the making.

[WM Wolverine]

Cable/satellite matter more than population as even if they aren't watching the game these power conferences are all going to eventually have conference networks with carriage fees; of which the BTN's is rising quite quickly.

[The Oracle]

None of the $$$ made in TV contracts is going to mean anything if it's not directly poured back into pay coaches top shelf $$$, ala the SEC and honestly we should be spending MORE than the SEC on coaches if we're making that much money. So far, all we've seen is how everybody's athletic department is in the black.