Around the Big Ten

[THE_WIZARD_]

rare cogency by Talent

[lineygoblue]

Other than giving the Big Ten Network access to more television sets on the east coast, I see no benefit to the conference. It actually drags football down. Maryland hasn't had a decent football team since the days of Boomer Esiason. Rutgers has toyed with decency, but usually fallen flat.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Rutgers has done OK...but it has been against the pitiful Big Least.

[THE_WIZARD_]

[entropy]

Rutgers coach Kyle Flood could soon be leading the Scarlet Knights into the Big Ten. (AP)

In a move that could make dollars, but not necessarily (football) sense, Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany has his league in advanced talks to make a bold change, one that should cement his legacy in the history of college athletics, one way or the other.

The Big Ten, in a move that would stun the industry, could again expand its ranks, this time pushing to the East Coast by adding Rutgers and the University of Maryland. The move is not official, but both schools are in advanced talks with the conference, sources told Yahoo! Sports. An announcement could come early next week.

If the moves are completed, the league will have 14 members and leave college athletics, which appeared to be done with the chaotic conference realignment carrousel, once again scrambling, with teams from New England to the Rocky Mountains potentially impacted.

The talks come despite repeated Big Ten statements that it was content with its current 12-member configuration. For Delany, who at 64 is nearing retirement, it is his biggest gamble yet in running a conservative, often staid, band of mostly Midwestern land-grant behemoths. No matter how many members, the league will maintain its name.

Immediately, initially and perhaps for years to come, though, the conference's possible expansion will raise only questions.

Namely, why in the world would the Big Ten, which is already struggling on a national level in its historic flagship sport of football, take on two programs known for decades of struggles?

[Related: Maryland, Rutgers in deep talks about move to Big Ten]

And why would a conference known to so value its commonality and closeness decide to add universities with little to no shared cultural identities. It's a long, long way in every imaginable way from College Park, Md. to Lincoln, Neb.

There is no perfect answer but Rutgers and Maryland do bring TV sets for the Big Ten Network to be placed on basic cable tiers, and thus generate millions in additional revenue. The states should also provide fresh recruiting ground for current members to fan out and potentially improve their rosters.

It certainly isn't to immediately bolster football credibility.

Rutgers (9-1) has turned into a good Big East program, although it's still seeking its first league championship. Even Rutgers' most devoted backers, however, would acknowledge it has major strides to go before it can compete with Big Ten powers such as Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin. To start, it's a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten program, at best.

Maryland (4-7) is an also-ran in the weak ACC and would immediately become arguably the worst team in the Big Ten. And if not the worst, well, does anyone actually want to watch a Maryland-Minnesota game to find out otherwise?

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany had previously said he wasn't eying expansion. (AP)Neither boasts the kind of huge, six-figure stadiums, decades of storied success or state-wide legion of devoted fans like other Big Ten programs, especially the league's last two expansion candidates, Penn State (1993) and Nebraska (2011). Maryland's campus is on the edge of Washington, D.C., a professional sports market. Rutgers is essentially in the New York market where pro sports also rule.

There is no doubt that each school could become a major passion in its state, although that would likely require winning – Maryland's hoops program for instance doesn't lack for fans. A Big Ten membership isn't likely to bring a lot of success, though.

Still, the money from potentially being able to jam the Big Ten Network into the home of every cable subscriber in each state (combined population: 14.6 million), is significant. It also allows the league to extend some reach into major Eastern media markets such as Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia and even New York City. That said, the Big Ten added the Terrapins and Scarlet Knights, not the Giants, Jets, Eagles, Ravens and Redskins. College football just isn't that big of a deal.

[Also: Charlie Weis picks up students' tabs]

Competitively, the eastward push could help the recruiting fortunes of the current Big Ten teams, who are suffering from the demographic challenge of the Midwest growing at a far slower rate than the Southeast and West Coast. Michigan, for instance, was the only state in the union to lose population from 2000-10.

While Nebraska brought a national brand name, great tradition and typical Big Ten pageantry, it didn't offer a vibrant region for high school talent or many TV viewers (population 1.7 million). Instead, the Cornhuskers are now working the same recruiting grounds of Ohio, Michigan and Chicago — land that the rest of the league was already picking through.

The Jersey/Mid-Atlantic area is a pretty good one. In the Class of 2013 there are two five-star and 17 four-star recruits according to Rivals.com in Maryland, New Jersey and D.C. Recruiting in Northern Virginia and New York City could also be aided.

For a league desperate for talent, it's something.

Of course, is that really enough? Big Ten teams (Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Nebraska) already had verbal commitments from five of those 17 highly regarded recruits.

The league would also add a tremendous basketball program at Maryland, a growing one at Rutgers and recruiting access to what is arguably the most talent-rich corridor in the country from New York to D.C. But when did basketball matter on this scale? And since when did the Big Ten, which currently boasts five ranked teams, including three of the top five, need help in hoops?

And while there are also terrific academics and a major population of regular students who may be more inclined to head to the Midwest, this will be seen through a football prism.

[Also: Texas A&M begins Heisman push for quarterback Johnny Manziel]

In flat-out terms, the Big Ten would be weaker than it currently is. Potential growth is still all about potential. Much of which never is realized.

And sure, Big Ten Network money is nice, but at what is a lightly watched, if highly profitable, cable channel determining the direction of the Big Ten itself? This seems like the tail wagging the dog. It's not like Big Ten programs were hurting for revenue or resources. When is enough money enough? Does it really matter to students and fans if the athletic director's already opulent oversized office gets remodeled … again?

Is that worth not having Ohio State come to town very often?

The Big Ten's proposed expansion will impact the schedules of its existing schools. (AP)That's the most troubling part because expansion of any kind almost automatically dilutes traditional rivalries as the new guys bump out an old opponent or two. While the big series such as Ohio State-Michigan will always be protected, there are plenty of alums who appreciate games against other Midwest schools, where neighbors, coworkers, spouses and siblings may have attended or grew up rooting for. It's called tradition. Iowa-Michigan State matters to some people.

There isn't a single Big Ten fan base that is excited by the prospect of these schools on their home schedule, especially at the expense of a bigger-name team. If you're playing Maryland that means you're not playing Michigan (or some other name program). At least Nebraska created some excitement.

This is a dramatic change in not just how the league will operate, but how it will feel. East Coast cities are East Coast cities, not the traditional rural roots of the Big Ten.

As for the two schools in question, this should be a no-brainer for Rutgers, which has been looking for a proper home for decades and has long coveted a shot at the mighty – and stable – Big Ten. The school will gladly cough up a $10 million exit fee to leave the Big East, which has cobbled together a football membership that extends all the way to San Diego and will offer a weakened basketball product in the years to come. The Rutgers athletic department was already operating at a $26 million-plus deficit; the long-term ability to maybe break even in the Big Ten is worth the initial loss.

At Maryland it's not as simple. The school owes the ACC $50 million for leaving the conference, an exit fee that was upped earlier this year when there was speculation that the Big 12 could come after Florida State and Clemson. Perhaps not coincidentally, Maryland and FSU were the only two schools to vote against raising the exit fee.

Moreover, while the Big Ten offers academic might, being aligned with Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Boston College, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and so on also wasn't so bad. The ACC offered generations of rivalries, was rooted in basketball – the sport that matters most with alums – and provided tremendous exposure to potential students up and down the East Coast.

In the end, though, the Big Ten brand might be too much to turn down. Even at $50 million, which will take years to recoup.

For the rest of college athletics, Maryland's and Rutgers' potential entrance into the Big Ten could trigger more moves in this never-ending headache.

[Also: College football hits a landmark for black coaches]

The Big Ten's possible expansion caught the entire country off guard. Athletic directors in the ACC and Big East both claimed they had heard nothing about it as recently as Saturday afternoon. Now, they might need to pick up the pieces.

The ACC would now have 13 football members after Syracuse and Pitt arrive from the Big East in the fall of 2013, but 14 schools in other sports because of the inclusion of Notre Dame in everything but football. The Irish will play five ACC programs a year in football but will not be a full football member.

Sitting at 13 in football and 14 in everything else is a real possibility, according to ACC athletic directors who were trying to sort through Maryland's possible defection.

If the league were to attempt to replace Maryland, the most obvious and, perhaps only, expansion target would be the University of Connecticut. It is by far the most attractive candidate left on the East Coast. About the only other schools that could be on the radar are Central Florida and South Florida, and neither is realistic, according to at least one ACC source.

If the Huskies are it, then the Big East, which is already a mess of full members, football-only members and basketball-only members could find the need to expand itself. Or it could continue to sit tight. There's almost no way to know at this point.

BYU and Air Force both remain potential additions either for football only or even full membership. Army could be a possibility – Navy is already coming in 2015. A western school such as Nevada, UNLV or Fresno State could be a football-only candidate to balance things geographically.

Or maybe in an effort to replace UConn's presence in New England, the league goes after the University of Massachusetts or attempts to bolster its basketball by adding Xavier or Virginia Commonwealth or, well, at that point just about anyone and anything and anywhere is on the table.

This is the lunacy of conference realignment, one that college athletics hoped was over for the time being.

Then Jim Delany decided to enter discussions about one more – one last – power play and potentially gamble that a bunch of East Coast TV sets are worth the risk to everything Big Ten football once held dear.

At first glance, it could be one pretty price to pay.




Post Extras:

[Hannibal]

The ACC doesn't have a network comparable with the BTN. Getting BTN on basic or basic digital cable in Maryland/DC/Northern Virginia would be a big deal.

The reason why the ACC doesn't have that kind of a deal is because the region doesn't give enough of a shit about college football to justify it. If the ACC tried to get onto cable systems and DirecTV, those carriers would tell them to go fuck themselves. Have you noticed that satellite provideres aren't carrying the PAC-12 network? That is also why the TV contract for the ACC with Disney isn't nearly as lucrative. You only get the cable carriage fees if the local cable agrees to carry it and pass along that fee to its customers, which is far from a given. The Longhorn Network wasn't even a slam dunk in the state of Texas. The BTN will be a much harder sell for Maryland and the DC era.

Using the "TV footprint" argument to its logical conclusion, every conference would be better of merging into one massive superconference consisting of 120 teams, because that way, USC would get into the New York City market, Ohio State would get into the Miami market, and Oklahoma would get into the Seattle market. Of course, the idea is ludicrous, because the revenue is a zero sum game, unless you add more games. The only true benefit there has ever been to expansion was the CCG, which is still a small number when you divide it by 12. It's even a smaller number when you divide it by 14 or 16. I'd argue that it's worse than a zero sum game over the long run, since expansion destroys rivalries. Tradition is the true money generator for college football.

[iam416]

It's a terrible move.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I'm confident that with both Maryland and Penn State, they would be able to ask for higher fees in Maryland and DC.

Maybe Delaney and the B1G don't have the same sort of inside scoop that you guys have though

[entropy]

Guess this means the BIG will also go after Texas..

[hack]

The reason why the ACC doesn't have that kind of a deal is because the region doesn't give enough of a shit about college football to justify it. If the ACC tried to get onto cable systems and DirecTV, those carriers would tell them to go fuck themselves. Have you noticed that satellite provideres aren't carrying the PAC-12 network? That is also why the TV contract for the ACC with Disney isn't nearly as lucrative. You only get the cable carriage fees if the local cable agrees to carry it and pass along that fee to its customers, which is far from a given. The Longhorn Network wasn't even a slam dunk in the state of Texas. The BTN will be a much harder sell for Maryland and the DC era.

Using the "TV footprint" argument to its logical conclusion, every conference would be better of merging into one massive superconference consisting of 120 teams, because that way, USC would get into the New York City market, Ohio State would get into the Miami market, and Oklahoma would get into the Seattle market. Of course, the idea is ludicrous, because the revenue is a zero sum game, unless you add more games. The only true benefit there has ever been to expansion was the CCG, which is still a small number when you divide it by 12. It's even a smaller number when you divide it by 14 or 16. I'd argue that it's worse than a zero sum game over the long run, since expansion destroys rivalries. Tradition is the true money generator for college football.

As far as I can see the whole argument is to be found right here. There's a sweet spot between the very true statement that ``Tradition is the true money generator for college football'' and the very real need to acknowledge and adjust to changing realities. Is that point of balance going to be found? My guess is that the odds are low.

[WM Wolverine]

"because the revenue is a zero sum game"

When Maryland plays Wake Forest, Duke, Boston College etc they get lousy ratings as you'd expect. Now have them play OSU, Penn State or Michigan and the ratings from that game would jump tremendously and not just because of the B10's fan base is watching. When Maryland is playing a higher caliber opponent, they've actually added value...

Plus with the BTN, you've got carriage fees and ABC/ESPN broadcasting every game nationally with reverse mirror.

[WM Wolverine]

Getting the BTN onto NYC's basic cable is Delaney's prime objective, which is why Rutgers is likely to land here after Maryland. Delaney hopes that Fox will help the BTN get on to NYC's/NJ's basic cable by combining the YES Network (recently bought by Fox) with the BTN as a package...

If Delaney can get the BTN onto NJ & NYC's basic cable/satellite, Rutgers would be a very impressive addition.

[entropy]

Assuming NY cable would actually agree to it.... Do they care enough?

[hack]

I know that this option has been discussed before and I forget the conventional wisdom, but doesn't Syracuse do that thanks to being in upstate NY? It's as credible a football school as the other two and for basketball it could be a real prize. It's only one school to add, leaving one obvious vacancy, and if part of the thinking here is to screw with the ACC, this does that too, right? I'm sure I'm missing a few factors in the analysis but Syracuse seems to make a ton of sense to me.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Rutgers has the advantage of being a large, state, research institution. Syracuse is a small, private school that's located in a rapidly dying city. They are barely amongst the nation's top 200 research schools.

Was discussing this somewhere else but Rutgers has consistently outdrawn Syracuse since 2006 when they expanded their stadium. Just this year Syracuse played USC in the Meadowlands and couldn't find 40,000 people to show up. And half of the 39,000 crowd was rooting for USC. Meanwhile Rutgers drew 50,000 to a game agaisnt Howard.

Syracuse has a ton of history and far more name value, but I don't think they are a better option if your focus is on football.

There's no magic bullet, one school who truly locks down NYC or DC but between a combination of Rutgers/Maryland/Penn State I think the B1G would be in position to have the biggest piece of the pie in both.

And just because the ACC and Big East were unable to successfully push their brand in these regions, doesn't mean the B1G will fail also.