The Rest of College Football

[whodean]

How much does ND make from the NBC deal and how different is that from the BTN cut per school?

[Jeff Buchanan]

I think I read somewhere the ND gets less from NBC than B10 schools get as part of the revenue sharing deal.

IOW, ND makes more money by joining the B10 than they do by staying independent and owning a TV deal with NBC. But, ND is all about the prestige of maintaining their independence and maybe more so, their Catholic identity.

[Optimus Prime]

I read that too, let's backup and say major US Universities that self-fund sports programs in general. Ultimately football & basketball revenues pay the bill or it stops.

[Hannibal]

I think I read somewhere the ND gets less from NBC than B10 schools get as part of the revenue sharing deal.

I'm pretty sure that information wasn't an apples-to-apples comparison. I saw something like ND gets $15 MM per year from their NBC contract and Big Ten teams get $18 MM total payout from the conference (including all sports and bowl games).

[WM Wolverine]

I've seen wildly varying figures for ND's NBC contract; anywhere from $7-$16mil. They being private don't have to release the financials to the public yet they very proudly bragged about the amounts back when it was the richest of any colleges media deal...

ND can and will hold out on independence until they are forced into a conference. I expect to see the end of the Big XII and Big East, I'm under the assumption they merge to form a conference that isn't much more interesting than C-USA. After that, we'll have four 'super' conferences who will control 95% of the tv/media & bowls. Those 'super' conferences aren't going to make such concessions to ND like the Big East and BCS has in the past and eventually ND will nearly be forced to join a conference...

With that, I think the Big Ten is last to make a move in the next round of expansion and those last two pieces are Notre Dame and whoever is available to be #14...

*SEC = Plus A&M n Missouri...
*Pac 12 = Plus OU, OSU, UT, TT...
*ACC = Plus Pitt, Syracuse and 2 of UConn, Rutgers or WV.
*B10 = Plus Notre Dame & Rutgers?

[entropy]

Supposedly a billboard in Waco

[JRB]

West Virginia wants to be the 14th team in the SEC. I haven't heard much about WVU to the ACC, though, as much as it pains me to say this, I'd prefer they'd be the ACC's 16th team(assuming UConn is in as #15) over Rutgers, simply due to their football and men's basketball programs being more competitive.

For the Big Ten, I'd like to see ND, Missouri, Iowa State, and Rutgers. ND would bring enough revenue to make the move to 16 profitable for everybody, I would think, and the other three would expand markets, recruiting territory, and the number of rivalry games in-conference. Those schools would all fit, IMO, but it would take bringing ND in to make it worthwhile. Without the Irish, maybe Missouri and Rutgers make sense if you're going to 14, maybe not. The critical thing for the Big Ten is to understand that this fundamental realignment in the sport is coming to its conclusion-- if you're going to move to 14 or 16 teams, you need to act now.

[WM Wolverine]

No point in Iowa State or Rutgers either...

Your just splitting a slightly larger pie in two more ways.

[hack]

I don't know much about Rutgers save for its in NJ and isn't it the fallback for east coast kids shut out of the Ivy League? What about it makes sense for the Big Ten? (Not challening your statment, just asking...)

[WM Wolverine]

Rutgers is in New Jersey, a pretty large state in population... They have no real history athletically but do pass the 'academic' test, AAU member...

Facilities aren't B10 caliber... What they do offer is the state of New Jersey in addition to a toe into the NYC market. Netting Rutgers is a huge boon for Rutgers and they became a significant player in the East Coast... Rutgers in the B10 is a team that can probably keep its actual good in-state talent, in-state rather than going to PSU, Maryland and other ACC schools...

I think they are a bit of a reach but its likely no one else better is available as #14 if ND finally wants to join the B10.

[Dr. Strangelove]

South Carolina gets notice of allegations...over $47,000 in improper benefits involving 10 football players...could be nailed as repeat offender

http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/28448/south-carolina-gets-notice-of-allegations

[Dr. Strangelove]

Oklahoma and Texas expected to decide their future very soon...both school Presidents have been granted authority to act

http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/_/id/34018/beebe-texas-ou-decisions-anticipated

[Pasadena Blue]

is there any read yet as to whether Ohio will be nailed as a repeat offender?

[entropy]

Quote of the day: "Inviting Texas to your conference is like inviting Hannibal Lecter to your dinner party." - Pete Thamel

[Jeff Buchanan]

For those of you sitting on the sidelines on this issue, this is pretty good summary of where things are and where things might go with respect to conference realignment.

I have been following expansion very closely this week and will be upfront in that I am no insider and I have no insider access. However, with the amount of information that has been put out there for several days, I think you can start putting pieces together which can explain why there has been no news out of Chicago while everywhere else seems to be in complete upheaval. I'll address some schools of thought that are out there.

1. The B1G is content with where they are.

I doubt this is true as it relates to the future. The idea of three superconferences having 16 teams and the B1G having 12 does not make sense from a business perspective. There's too much money on the table to let that happen. However, I do believe that there is truth to Delaney's "quality over quantity" approach, they just don't have to be mutually exclusive. According to the great NYT article yesterday on college fan bases, the only two programs that would increase the average B1G fan base would be Texas and Notre Dame. All others would decrease the conference average. That means we already have the quality that other conferences are searching for. However, if we could add Texas and/or ND, that would increase the quality and quantity at the same time.

2. We need Rutgers to gain the NYC market.

I don't believe this is true either. Again, if you use the NYT article from yesterday, it shows that Rutgers makes up 21% of the NYC fan base. However, UM, Ohio, and PSU make up approximately 14% of the same fan base. If the B1G were to add ND alone, the share would jump to 23%. Bottom line, the B1G is doing just fine in NYC. Adding Rutgers would add another AAU school plus the possibility of games in MSG, but the school itself brings nothing to the table in either of the top two revenue sports.

3. OU/OSU/TT/UT are a package deal to the PAC16

I'd pump the brakes on that too. I think OU and OSU are gone and that will be official after Wednesday when the OSU BOR meets. But I'm not sure on Texas. It is important to note that the Texas BOR did not give the prez full autonomy to make the realignment decision. OU did. The Texas prez can only make the unilateral decision to stay in the Big12. There has been much discussion how the Texas elites are divided on where to land. Thus, it makes sense that Texas is not willing to allow one person to make the decision to leave and more importantly, where to go. I trust that PBC on the NW board has a connection in the B1G offices. He has been silent for the past few days after having his most recent posts immediately removed. Recall that he said (1) Texas and ND were in serious talks with B1G a week ago; (2) Texas wanted to stay in the Big 12 but the B1G was the first option for many of its reps should the Big 12 cease to exist; (3) Texas would wait for OU to break up the Big 12 for political purposes; (4) the B1G was willing to allow Texas to keep LHN so long as it did not share in the BTN revenues; and (5) ND would wait on Texas to move first and keep an eye on BE developments. Everything PWC said was confirmed independently by a Cleveland sports reporter who also has a B1G offices connection and was unaware of PBC's posts.

If this is all still true, it can explain why the B1G is quiet. If it wanted to expand, the only true two targets would be Texas and ND. They increase the average fan base, give the conference the top 5 teams in overall fan base, expand the footprint, and trumps any other move by any other conference. But in order to complete the deal, they have to wait for certain dominoes to fall first. The Big East has to collapse. Thanks to the ACC, that has begun. OU has to leave the Big 12. That appears imminent after tomorrow. Finally, Texas has to make a unified decision on where to go. The Regents keeping the power to make that decision shows me that this remains an issue.

This has been very interesting to watch play out. I think the end game is 4 superconferences with a Plus 1 scenario for determining the national champion.