My own personal eyeball test says Michigan isn't good enough. But, that said, I still expect to beat OSU.
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Well, I didn't get the humor as I'm a literal sort of guy. Besides, here's the scenario, quite believable actually even if not likely, where it could happen.
talent's post Taken literally, he just clicked back up on my credible scale.
It's really not too hard to see Michigan in the playoff. The assumptions are the top teams win out over lower teams, except in these cases: the Big 12 round-robin lose to each other and they also do not have a championship game Memphis drops 1 on the road at either Houston or Temple OSU beats MSU, then Michigan in turn beats OSU Let's look: w10 next game 1 Clemson 8 - 0 W 2 LSU 7 - 0 W 3 Ohio State 8 - 0 W 4 Alabama 7 - 1 L 5 Notre Dame 7 - 1 W 6 Baylor 7 - 0 W 7 Michigan State 8 - 0 W 8 TCU 8 - 0 W 9 Iowa 8 - 0 W 10 Florida 7 - 1 W 11 Stanford 7 - 1 W 12 Utah 7 - 1 W 13 Memphis 8 - 0 W 14 Oklahoma State 8 - 0 L 15 Oklahoma 7 - 1 W 16 Florida State 7 - 1 L 17 Michigan 6 - 2 W Results: Bama loses to #2 LSU; OKST loses to #8 TCU; FSU loses to #1 Clemson; Michigan jumps 2 w11 next game 1 Clemson 9 - 0 W 2 LSU 8 - 0 W 3 Ohio State 9 - 0 W 4 Notre Dame 8 - 1 W 5 Baylor 8 - 0 L 6 Michigan State 9 - 0 W 7 TCU 9 - 0 W 8 Iowa 9 - 0 W 9 Florida 8 - 1 W 10 Stanford 8 - 1 W 11 Utah 8 - 1 W 12 Memphis 9 - 0 L 13 Oklahoma 8 - 1 W 14 Alabama 7 - 2 W 15 Michigan 7 - 2 W 16 Oklahoma State 8 - 1 W 17 Florida State 7 - 2 W Results: Memphis loses to #25 Houston; Baylor Loses to #13 OK; Michigan jumps 2 w12 next game 1 Clemson 10 - 0 W 2 LSU 9 - 0 W 3 Ohio State 10 - 0 W 4 Notre Dame 9 - 1 W 5 Michigan State 10 - 0 L 6 TCU 10 - 0 W 7 Iowa 10 - 0 W 8 Florida 9 - 1 W 9 Stanford 9 - 1 W 10 Utah 9 - 1 W 11 Oklahoma 9 - 1 L 12 Alabama 8 - 2 W 13 Michigan 8 - 2 W 14 Baylor 9 - 1 W 15 Oklahoma State 9 - 1 L 16 Florida State 8 - 2 W 17 Memphis 9 - 1 W Results: MSU loses to #3 OSU; OK loses to #6 TCU; OKST loses to #14 Baylor; Michigan jumps 1 w13 next game 1 Clemson 11 - 0 W 2 LSU 10 - 0 W 3 Ohio State 11 - 0 L 4 Notre Dame 10 - 1 L 5 TCU 11 - 0 L 6 Iowa 11 - 0 W 7 Florida 10 - 1 W 8 Stanford 10 - 1 W 9 Utah 10 - 1 W 10 Michigan State 10 - 1 W 11 Alabama 9 - 2 W 12 Michigan 9 - 2 W 13 Baylor 10 - 1 W 14 Florida State 9 - 2 L 15 Memphis 10 - 1 W 16 Oklahoma State 9 - 2 W 17 Oklahoma 9 - 2 L Results: OSU loses to #12 Michigan; ND loses to #8 Stanford; TCU loses to #13 Baylor; Michigan jumps 5 above OSU and MSU and off to B1G Champ Game! champ next game 1 Clemson 12 - 0 W 2 LSU 11 - 0 W 3 Iowa 12 - 0 L 4 Florida 11 - 1 L 5 Stanford 11 - 1 W 6 Utah 11 - 1 L 7 Michigan 10 - 2 W 8 Ohio State 11 - 1 n/a 9 Notre Dame 10 - 2 n/a 10 Michigan State 11 - 1 n/a 11 Baylor 11 - 1 n/a 12 Alabama 10 - 2 n/a 13 TCU 11 - 1 n/a 14 Memphis 11 - 1 n/a 15 Oklahoma State 10 - 2 n/a 16 Florida State 8 - 4 n/a 17 Oklahoma 9 - 3 n/a Results: Iowa loses to #7 Michigan; Florida loses to #2 LSU; Utah loses to #5 Stanford; Michigan jumps 3 IN THE PLAYOFFS Why am I here? 1 Clemson 13 - 0 undefeated 2 LSU 12 - 0 undefeated 3 Stanford 12 - 1 won PAC12, beat #6 Utah 4 Michigan 11 - 2 won B1G, beat #3 Iowa and #3 OSU 5 Iowa 12 - 1 Just lost to Michigan 6 Florida 11 - 2 Just lost to LSU 7 Utah 11 - 2 Just lost to Stanford 8 Ohio State 11 - 1 Just lost to Michigan, didn't win B1G 9 Notre Dame 10 - 2 Just lost to Stanford, independent 10 Michigan State 11 - 1 Just lost to OSU that just lost to Mich & didn't win B1G 11 Baylor 11 - 1 Lost 1 in Big 12 which sux & has no playoff 12 Alabama 10 - 2 Lost to LSU, didn't win SEC 13 TCU 11 - 1 Lost 1 in Big 12 which sux & has no playoff 14 Memphis 11 - 1 American conf with 1 loss 15 Oklahoma State 10 - 2 Lost 1 in Big 12 which sux & has no playoff 16 Florida State 8 - 4 Lost 4 17 Oklahoma 9 - 3 Lost 3 Because we beat #3 OSU and #3 Iowa back to back we are in! The rest of the teams either lost their championship game or did not play one. The only flaw is the assumption that all Big 12 teams all lose one game. If one of them wins out, they will probably be picked as an undefeated team. I like dreaming big, so let's win out and let the chips fly!Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
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Originally posted by froot loops View PostI'm getting sick of hearing about the eyeball test when I'm sure some of these analysts eyeballs are not viewing all the games.
I listened to an interview with Bill Hancock who is the CFP Selection Committee Chair a week or two ago on a sports radio show. The eyeball test was mentioned frequently. It is one of the many things the committee looks at.
No question, it is part of the CBB Tournament selection. I don't have a problem with it at all as a criteria for the CFP selections either.
Also part of this interview was mention of a thing Hancock put on this summer where he invited a bunch of sports writers to learn how the committee works. They were assembled into groups of 16-20 (the number of people that will be on the actual committee), given scenarios and told to pick the final 4. Rinse and repeat. They spent 2 days doing this.
Chris Childers who works with Rick Neuheisal on one of the CFB shows was there and said it was incredibly interesting to see the process and how people and groups picked the final 4. In the end, he thought that despite all the criticism his view is that its a good system only made better by going to 6 teams. He's against auto bids for conference champions because, for example - and there are others, a 12-0 ACC champ may be a lesser team than a 10-2 SEC or any of the other Power5 conferences. Why? The eyeball test.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
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Originally posted by Mike View PostWe IMPROVED the old system by adding 2 more teams to the playoff. I'm ammused by all the hand-wringing. We've had the system for all of one year and so far they got it exactly right.
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Originally posted by Jeff Buchanan View PostWhy? It plays with the Committee whether you like it or are sick of it.
People say this phrase all the time and I'm quite sure their eyeballs aren't watching all of these games. They quite often evoke this "test" when it goes against any of the other things that are supposed to be used.
I remember last year when people were talking up the SEC versus everyone else. They really used it when Mississippi State and Mississippi were #1 and #2.
It is like the NFL draft, nobody ever goes back sees if their eyeball test was worth a crap.
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Originally posted by Hannibal View PostTrue but going to a selection committee added no value over the previous system. Clemson isn't an objectively better number 1 than the other candidates.
I caught the first half of the Clemson drubbing of GT. If you look at just the objective numbers you don't get the full effect of how ruthlessly effective the Clemson offense is.
Deshaun Johnson was 21/33 for 265y and 2 TDs. RB Wayne Gallman ran 13 times for 115y at a 8.8y per play and scored 2 TDs. There were a couple of Defensive TDs and a Safety off a blocked punt from STs. The offense was 10/16 on 3rd downs.
This is a great CFB Team. By the eyeball test they are WAY better LOOKING than any of the other contenders and I've seen all of them play at some point and for parts of games. osu has been inconsistent. LSU is, well, they look like a better Michigan but not by much. Bama is over-rated IMO based on what they look like.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
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Originally posted by froot loops View PostPeople say this phrase all the time and I'm quite sure their eyeballs aren't watching all of these games. They quite often evoke this "test" when it goes against any of the other things that are supposed to be used.
I'd agree with that. It's too bad but you're probably right. Many of the members of the Committee will not have actually seen every team they have to choose from among the top teams that will be realistically considered.
There realistically not going to jump down to team #9 or #10 to pick one of those teams to get a berth even though they really LOOK good.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
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M has a path to the playoffs. It's unlikely, but crazier things have happened.
I have no idea why people get at all perturbed by the week 1 CFP ratings. It's pretty clear that they are absolutely and totally fluid. Yeah, MSU is #7. Eh, whatever. If they win out, they are in. Period. End of story. For that matter, Florida State, I think has a very credible path to the CFP with the potential to beat Clemson and Florida. And they start off at the luck #16 spot.
I think this is a massive upgrade from previous efforts. Massive.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
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