The Rest of College Football

[AlabamAlum]

I am not a sandbagger. I do like to kid occaisionally, though. Alabama is the best team in college football. If Alabama fails to go 15-0 and win the CFP it will be an epic choke job - provided Tua and a few other key players stay healthy. But mainly Tua.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Once again you sandbag...I think the CFP should leave Bama out...place them in the NFC South...and let's have a real Super Bowl...Bammer vs. Tom Brady/Patrick Mahomes.

Bama 45 Chefs 31

Bama 38 Pats 28

[Jeff Buchanan]

Bama is beatable. The biggest thing is Tua........

Sure, but it's hard..... Tua or not. I think you're right about Clemson being a problem for UAT. They have a point scoring machine, a very efficient one, and a DL that is going to be disruptive to UAT's offense. Without Tua, Bama's #3, constantly under pressure, isn't going to run an offense that can keep up with Clemson's. With Tua? Too hard to predict.

Against any of the other CFP contenders, sans Tua or with him, UAT can simply work to control the game letting the offense do enough to play to a great defense ...... that would be the Harbaughffense model. It works.

The problem for M, as I see it, there are really good journeymen on M's roster and a ton of play-makers and future NFL draftees on UATs. If a less talented team such as M is going to fashion a win v. The Tide, it's going to come from near flawless execution, getting all the breaks and out-coaching Saban and his staff...... and a Bama roster full of future NFL draft eligible players, playing not to get hurt. Don't laugh, Saban has indicated that has happened.

If there is something that M has done this season with regard to game prep and in-game coaching, it is drilling execution and then putting the players in positions to succeed. On defense, Don Brown has been lights out with his schemes - most of which are beyond the comprehension of fans. I get the basics but the disguises, the traps and baiting he does is special if the success M has had in defending the opponent's passing game is an indicator. The Slant fade weakness is gone. There is something Brown has done to mitigate that weakness present last season and make QBs think they can throw for those plays but the results are rarely good and on occasion game changing. Execution on the DL and from the LB's and Ss has been light years better than it was last season.

On offense, my frustration with Harbaugh's run-centric conservatism has given way to confidence that it pays dividends in the end game. Patterson makes plays that keep the chains moving and doesn't turn the ball over; what looks to be a marginally productive run game in the early going turns out to be quite effective in the 4th ..... i.e., his game strategy is to control what the other team does and in the process control the entire game. I don't think he gets enough credit for what appears to me his wired in ability to do that.

It's been noted that what M is doing this season closely resembles what JH did with Colin Kaepernick at SF - minus the RPO (which I think we are going to see at some point). Patterson has the zone read and PA down and the run-play constraints - when they work and they sometimes do not - are effective and I'm not sure any other team does them to the extent they are built into M's playbook - at least what we've seen so far.

It goes without saying that the offense goes as the OL goes and there is no question the OL is starting to play at a very high level and has done so v. three good defensive fronts in Wisconsin, MSU and PSU. Of course, neither of these area as good as Alabama's and probably Clemson's. I know what Fancy Stats says about the numbers that supports that view but no one wants to see those so, you'll have to take my word for it ..... or rely on your eyeball takes.

If M were to play Alabama on a neutral field at a location equally favoring drive times for both fan-sets this Saturday, I think the M coaching staff would give Alabama's a run for their money. If M got some breaks and executed, they could push the game into the 4th and pull it out late ..... as long as it wasn't by a FG. OT favors Bama, IMO, so, M has to be in the game in the 4th and win it in regulation. That's the road-map.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Bama 45 Clempson 31

[AlabamAlum]

Good post, Jeff. UAT, though? Talent, is that you?

I think your Umaa team has a chance. Just have to beat Tosuc. The thing is Tua. If he is healthy, I would expect the early line to be close to the actual outcome.

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[crashcourse]

bama loses to Georgia in the CCG
Michigan wins out
notre dame wins out
Clemson wins out

who doesn't make it

seems like been down this road before and we know who does make it and which conference gets screwed again

[THE_WIZARD_]

^{M would be out.}

[Jeff Buchanan]

Clemson, Michigan, UGA, ND

There is no way the Committee can diss an unbeaten ND by putting Alabama in and leaving ND out. Keep in mind, ND will be 11-0 and without a CCG match-up. ND SHOULD be penalized for that but not at the expense of bumping them out of the CFP as an undefeated to put 2, one-loss SEC teams in (UGA and Alabama). Conference champs in the BIG and ACC SHOULD get plused up this year based on resumes and power rankings. While Clemson's is a bit weak, the 0 in the loss column means something...... or it SHOULD

Fact of the matter is the "SHOULD" thing is not a certain outcome. Weid shit happens but frankly, I don't see that in the scenario you describe.

Big12 champ? Look at the power rankings and resumes. No.

Pac12 champ? Forget it.

[Jeff Buchanan]

^{M would be out.}

Incorrect.

[THE_WIZARD_]

^{If UGA beats Bama you can't leave the SEC champs out. Clemson is in. Alabama would be in as well. Then it's down to M-ND and M shot their wad already. M is out. Ya'll better become Bammer fans.}

[crashcourse]

no doubt ALA losing the CCG to georgia all other teams winning out pouts them at risk

exact scenario 3 years ago ohiostate left out

Michigan would be left out this time

11-1 bama > 11-1 michigan

that's why a lot of people would love to see Georgia slip in no way 11-1 bama gets left out--then you have 2 sec teams good for the conference wallets

[THE_WIZARD_]

For once crash has a cogent thought. Good for you crash.

Now for the love of Lucifer...STFU

[crashcourse]

ok

[Jeff Buchanan]

Oh, I'm a Bama fan for sure.

Why would you leave a one-loss conference champ out and put a one-loss conference runner-up in? The Committee is not going to look at things that way if they follow their own explanation of selections. The SBNation article at the bottom of this post shows why SOS is important and how it is baked into the selection process (or SHOULD be):

Current Resume S&P+ Rankings after Week 10:

Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Georgia. ND is a distant #18 using this ranking method.

From the Committee's own words on selection criteria:

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

* Championships won

* Strength of schedule

* Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)

* Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

We believe that a committee of experts properly instructed (based on beliefs that the regular season is unique and must be preserved; and that championships won on the field and strength of schedule are important values that must be incorporated into the selection process) has very strong support throughout the college football community.

Now, I recognize SHOULD plays a part in all this but leaving the BIG CCG winner out of the CFP flys in the face of what the Committee says it looks at in the selection process.

I could see one out. When comparing Michigan and Alabama, the Committee could argue, but only subjectively, the teams are not comparable, Alabama is, to our eyeballs, a better team than Michigan and therefor, when we look at selecting the 4 best teams in CFB for CFP berths, Alabama goes in before Michigan. What you'd see in that kind of circumstance, as untenable as I think it is, would be Clemson, ND, UGA, Alabama. If this turned out to be the case, you would have ignored the value of "championships" in the form of CCG, elevated a team that played one less game than the other contenders (1-10) and in the process barred 3 of the 5, P5 champs from competing in the CFP.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/29/17795292/college-football-2018-strength-of-schedule-week-11-rankings