The Rest of College Football

[Cody_Russell]

PSU is not winning out fellas.

Well lets see.
They have at Rutgers... hmmm tough win here.
Oh, they also play MSU at home.... very tough.
Lastly, a neutral game vs Wisconsin.

Woooow so improbable.

[CGVT]

I don't think anyone from the Big12 will be there. West Virginia is the only 1-loss team left and they play Oklahoma next week.

So Alabama, the Pac12 champ (maybe), the ACC champ, and it'll come down to whether they would want a Big10 champ Wisconsin or OSU. And OSU won in Madison. OSU's argument a lot weaker if Penn State wins the conference.

Unless there's a playoff rule I don't know about where a conf champ has to be taken ahead of another team in the same conf

Right. If Bama were somehow upset by Tennessee or Florida in the SEC title game, there's not a snowball's chance in hell that the committee would take the SEC champ over them.

http://d30ratpzqzalg7.cloudfront.net/CD-drupal-cfp-PROD/s3fs-public/CFP%20Selection%20Committee%20Protocol.pdf?tV3FOZ68If3qops3X7XJQFmkEd00PiAY

Establish a committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships,
strength of schedule and head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar records and
pedigree (treat final determination like a tie-breaker; apply specific guidelines).


The only team I see going in over the champ in their conference is Alabama. They have been far and away the best team in College football all year. If the lose their CCG they'll go get in.

That is also the only way I think they'll take two teams from the same conference too

[Jeff Buchanan]

Have at it. Tuesday nights rankings:

1. Bama (10-0) - Obviously, no question.

2. Ohio State (9-1) - best 1 loss team and rising.

3. Clemson (9-1) - **

4. Michigan (9-1) - **

5. Louisville (9-1) - **

** 3, 4, 5 are tough. It will be interesting to see how the Committee sorts these three out. You can argue a particular position for any of them. This is best case for M. I see M mostly in a 4, 5 battle with Louisville rather than a 3, 4 battle with Clemson.

6. Washington (9-1)

7. Wisconsin (8-2)

8. Penn State (8-2)

9. Oklahoma (8-2)

10. Colorado (8-2)

[drok]

Michigan has 3 top 10 wins. Has to be 2 or 3.

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[AlabamAlum]

I don't think anyone from the Big12 will be there. West Virginia is the only 1-loss team left and they play Oklahoma next week.

So Alabama, the Pac12 champ (maybe), the ACC champ, and it'll come down to whether they would want a Big10 champ Wisconsin or OSU. And OSU won in Madison. OSU's argument a lot weaker if Penn State wins the conference.

Unless there's a playoff rule I don't know about where a conf champ has to be taken ahead of another team in the same conf

I din'r think they have to; it's just something they have said is part of their criteria.

[AlabamAlum]

Right. If Bama were somehow upset by Tennessee or Florida in the SEC title game, there's not a snowball's chance in hell that the committee would take the SEC champ over them.

If Bama loses, we won't go. I guarantee it.

[AlabamAlum]

Its all very interesting. I have said all season long that Ohio State is the best team. If they got left out again this year...well, this would drive the Bucknuts insane.

So....

You have Bama, and nothing clear at present after that.

Here are the teams with the best shots:

ACC: Clemson, Louisville

B1G: This is a jumbled mess. Ohio State, Michigan, PennState, Wisconsin.

BXII: West Virginia, at 11-1 is their best bet, IMO. OU or oSu have two losess, and I don't think will be taken over a one-loss top team

Pac-12: Washington if they win out. No one else, imo, if W loses.

SEC: Bama if we win out. No one else if we lose.

[AlabamAlum]

God help Michigan State. Urban will put a 100 on them if he can.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The Committee is going to earn their keep this season if it plays out like the probabilities say it will. I do think, just focusing on the B10 for a moment, that conference was jumbled by M's loss to Iowa.

If I remember correctly M had something like a 39% chance of getting to the NC game before yesterday. I think that is going to drop substantially. They also had, as of last week, a 51 something % chance of beating osu. That's going to drop with osu probably moving into the 54% win chance and, accordingly will be -5 to open, maybe as high as -7.

Fun times. That's why we love CFB.

[AlabamAlum]

I think Ohio State needs to become a big fan of whomever Washington plays to guarantee a spot, and (for good measure), anti WVA.

I do not think the Committee would hesitate to take Ohio State over Oklahoma (if OU are champs). oSu losing to Central Michigan and Baylor early may be the Cowboys' are only losses, but they haven't looked championship caliber or close. They beat a very average TTU team yesterday 43-44 or something. But -mark my words- West Virginia is about to get some love. They are the BigXII's only hope IMO. And yes, M and Ohio State are both several orders of magnitude better than the Neers.

Along with that line of thinking, Washington needs to lose. If they go 12-1 and are Pac-12 champs (and are left at home), the crying and outrage will be defeaning. I think the committee will try to be controversy-averse and take the Huskies and offer a "we have always said conference championships hold sway with us."

[Jeff Buchanan]

So, talent, on the soft side of things, do like M as a 1-loss wounded bear or as an over-confident 11-0 going into c-bus?

Frankly, I don't much like the subjective stuff but I guess I should have paid more attention to it ...... fucking Kinnick!

[AlabamAlum]

The Committee is going to earn their keep this season if it plays out like the probabilities say it will. I do think, just focusing on the B10 for a moment, that conference was jumbled by M's loss to Iowa.

If I remember correctly M had something like a 39% chance of getting to the NC game before yesterday. I think that is going to drop substantially. They also had, as of last week, a 51 something % chance of beating osu. That's going to drop with osu probably moving into the 54% win chance and, accordingly will be -5 to open, maybe as high as -7.

Fun times. That's why we love CFB.

M is still a guaranteed in if you win out. You still control your own destiny. Ohio State will be in the top 4 this Tuesday, but if Washington, Louisiville, Penn State, Clemson, and West Virginia win out and Penn State goes to the B1G CCG, well, we'll have a huge mess.

[CGVT]

I think the committee will try to be controversy-averse and take the Huskies and offer a "we have always said conference championships hold sway with us."

As they should

[iam416]

If OSU wins out, they'll be #2 going into CG Weekend and a clear #2.

So, talent, on the soft side of things, do like M as a 1-loss wounded bear or as an over-confident 11-0 going into c-bus?

I don't much stock in that. Those M kids haven't beaten OSU, ever -- unless they're a 6th year player. There is no way on earth that isn't the biggest game of their careers, whether they beat Iowa or lost to them.

[AlabamAlum]

As they should

I'm not sure I agree that the sway is good. I think in a limited-member playoff, an argument can be made to take the best team, irrespective of conference championship, because not all conferences are created equally.

For example, if OU wins the BigXII, do we take them over 11-1 Ohio State (if Penn State goes to the CCG)? Must of us saw the Bucknuts rail the Sooners. Does anyone think the Sooners are better?