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where FEI surpasses your simple math ..... at least I think it does as I'm a shitty statistician.
My "simple math" says that Ohio State was dispositively better than Oregon. 42 > 20. Especially when -4 in turnovers! The FEI says Oregon was better than Ohio State in 2014. It also says that Auburn was the 12th best team in the country and Ole Miss the 11th. I dunno...
Anywho, M is currently 36th, as you noted. Hoke's 2013 team finished the season 36th. Think about that. Hoke's first two teams were 9th and 26th.
Anyway, I like FEI and think it's an interesting away to look things. That said, it's a tool to be used with other tools.
Last edited by iam416; September 18, 2015, 12:40 PM.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
There's some genuine wondering about what this offense wants to be, which is normal at such early stages.
Perhaps in the way they want to score, the 50/50 and 80/20 is instructive. Wanting to score quickly and on every possession and stuff like that falls into the "of course" category. You're not going to make a living against good teams hoping for 5 yards per play. IMO, you need chunk plays. And with chunk plays comes faster scoring.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
I really didn't know where to put this, I almost started a new thread but who needs more of them.
I missed it when it was posted but this link will take you to a mgoblog board post (that should have been upvoted to the diary section but that didn't happen).
It's an original post of a 75yo version of The Victors that produces a series of posts revealing the huge differences in how this song has been presented over the years by the MMB, the worst just recently and last weekend. I agree.
I'm a huge MMB fan even though I have no musical proclivities at all but one thing I do know is that of late the MMB sucks and you can see this convincingly displayed in the series of posts following the original. It is most striking to compare an '86 Director Becher's performance in the stadium compared to the one we just saw from Director Boerma. Becher's version (audio transcription and the reproduction technicals of that notwithstanding) just drowns out the stadium noise from the fans while Boerma's is overwhelmed by it.
There is another neat 90yo rendition of The Victors recorded from a player piano version of it in this tread so, make sure to listen to it. Just kicks ass. I am one fan which just sick about what Boerma has done to the band so that it has to miked to be heard. It is awful. I don't think Hackett can do anything about it, at least that is what I've heard from other interested parties and it is said the Boerma is a huge egotist who takes all the criticism in and promptly ignores it. Oh well.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
Against Utah, Michigan's offense accounted for 6.2 of 7 point margin of defeat. Against Oregon State, M's offense only accounted for 1.4 points of the 21 point "non-garbage time" MoV. Against Utah, M gained 51% of available yards. Against Oregon State, M gained 44.3% of available yards (again, non garbage time). The huge difference was in defensive performance against a team with zero ability to pass.
So, FEI suggests that there was, at most, marginal improvement by M on the offensive side of the ball. And, in fact, given the level of opponent there might actually be a flatline argument to be made. Rather, the defense simply bludgeoned a hapless offense. Or so says FEI.
UNLV's defense has conceded 59% and 55% of available yards against NIU and UCLA. M ought to be in that range.
FEI also tells me that Ohio State's offense was way better against VT than it was against Hawaii, which is absolutely true.
Last edited by iam416; September 18, 2015, 12:58 PM.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
Perhaps in the way they want to score, the 50/50 and 80/20 is instructive. Wanting to score quickly and on every possession and stuff like that falls into the "of course" category. You're not going to make a living against good teams hoping for 5 yards per play. IMO, you need chunk plays. And with chunk plays comes faster scoring.
I love talking about this stuff. It's about football. Its what makes this forum worth reading and participating. Enough of that.
So yes, totally agree.
The question is, is JH in love with the man-ball of 5 yards per play, dominating the trenches, TOP and taking the game into the 4th quarter where it's decided or ...... something else?
There's only one thing, in my view, that Harbaugh likes about what I just wrote: dominating the trenches. That's because he knows, along with most elite CFB coaches who have the wherewithal in recruiting and the coaching staffs to develop talent there know that dominating the lines wins games.
So, with that being said, phase one of turning Team 136 into a scoring machine is developing the two lines on offense and defense. He lined up a pretty impressive coaching staff to do that I'd say. Results TBD but we're seeing encouraging things.
What was Harbaugh's first play call against Utah? It didn't work but I'd call that an all out attempt for a chunk play. Those kinds of plays are in his play book and you can be damn sure he understands the importance of putting points on the board and as quickly and frequently as possible. I also think he knows he doesn't have a game changing QB or RB or WRs, i.e., talent, (yet) to get those big chunk plays as often as he might like. So, he's content with moving the chains but I'm pretty sure, if the opportunity merged with the talent, he'd utilize it to get up on an opponent quickly and stay there.
He didn't need those against OrSU and dinged Rudock for the INT when trying to "fit a pass in there" when he didn't need to do that with a 21 point lead. I think Harbaugh, unlike some other coaches out there, doesn't give a shit about looking good by scoring 70 points against an over-matched opponent. He just wants to win and if that's by a couple of TDs over one of these supposed tomatoes cans, he's fine with that.... for now..... going forward, see above.
Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; September 18, 2015, 01:19 PM.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
Regarding the current FEI ...... Brian at mgoblog draws the same conclusion (flat lining argument may ring true).
But the eye test doesn't support that. The interior OL (not including Glascow at C) did well and, in his scoring metric, graded out really well. The big question? Is that going to continue. Obviously, I'm going to hope for yes, while you, OTH, take great pleasure in throwing cold water over all of this ..... I'm good with that by the way. It's fun.
M's problems, and this is definitely reflected correctly in the FEI you provide above, has some guys doing everything right and some not. Its the old adage it takes 11 guys doing everything right (or improvising after the snap to make it so) to make a play work. If everything falls into place more often than not, you're going to see that FEI improve.
BTW, I don't think you'd disagree that Hoke's FEI numbers certainly do not reflect what his teams were all about. He had Denard and a ton of luck in his first year and after that ...... it was the emperor without any clothes.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
BTW, I don't think you'd disagree that Hoke's FEI numbers certainly do not reflect what his teams were all about. He had Denard and a ton of luck in his first year and after that ...... it was the emperor without any clothes.
As I said, the FEI is one tool to assess a team. It's not the gospel. As I illustrated, I certainly don't think the FEI accurately gauged Oregon and Ohio State last season.
And I happen to think M looked better against Oregon State on offense. I think M skewed its offensive numbers against Utah with the final drive. I think M's offense was hot garbage against the Beavs in the first half but then way better in the 2nd half. I'd rate 2 competent quarters of offense as better than zero, which is where I had them against Utah. There's also 35 points vs 17 or, IMO, 28 vs 10 (meaningful points).
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
Did anyone mention that Butch Jones was OC for DeBord when Debord was at CMU?
I'm sure that played into Jones hiring DeBord.
Interesting. Did not know that.
The Carr years at M should be proof positive that nepotism will kill football programs. No doubt it is prevalent in the coaching community. Breaking that kind of thing is tough. Butch Jones unfortunately didn't learn the lesson and its going to hurt UT's comeback.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
Just checked his Wikipedia page. He was, indeed, DeBord's OC. He spent one year as Kelly's RB coach and then he actually spent two years as a RichRod assistant. Well, now we know where he learned all about making shitty assistant hires.
Carr from '97 - '04 was excellent, not elite just excellent for my standards. It went downhill around '03 as recruiting started to tail off other than the Henne, Hart recruiting class in '04 that kept Carr a job through '07...
1 National Title, five 10-win seasons, share of 5 B1G titles & went to 3 Rose Bowls, 1 Orange Bowl and 2 Citrus... He wasn't able to sustain that success with Tressell locking down Ohio and even stiffer competition from Wisky.
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