The Rest of College Football

[froot loops]

Yep... which is why I was never impressed with Carr's Michigan teams.

I was impressed with his 97 Co-Champ team, although I would guess you had a bigger interest in it than I.

[hack]

WRs on that team hardly ever made contact with the ball with their feet.

[iam416]

Debord's offense requires elite talent at every position on the field. Yet the games outcome still manages to be decided in the 4th quarter.

I'm not exactly sure how this is going to differ under your current leader given his preferred style.

Carr's team would have run the Beav off the field, btw. And I think Carr's teams mostly dispatched teams in accordance with rational expectations -- I doubt they were a horrific team against the spread, e.g.

[Cody_Russell]

at least Carr wasn't Rich Rod or Brady Hoke.

[hack]

Carr was fine. He gave us a year of unmitigated football joy and fielded some other great teams. His teams always looked really sloppy in September against a UCLA or Washington, but toughened up as the season went on. He did make a few key errors, i.e. Henson, at just the time when he was also slowing down and becoming less competitive and more sentimental, and that defined his later years. And, yes, Michigan always had a lot more talent on offense than it did offensive production. Brian's done great work showing how Carr built his staffs based on nepotism and not performance, which is why there's no Carr coaching tree. IMO when you factor in all that, it's not a surprise that he started very strong as a coach and faded. The nepotism and inability to adjust will cost you over time.

[entropy]

WRs on that team hardly ever made contact with the ball with their feet.

HA!!!

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm not exactly sure how this is going to differ under your current leader given his preferred style.

Carr's team would have run the Beav off the field, btw. And I think Carr's teams mostly dispatched teams in accordance with rational expectations -- I doubt they were a horrific team against the spread, e.g.

OK, here's the thing. First, you and I both know the game has evolved significantly since the Carr heydays and perhaps even more significantly since 2006. The spready stuff on offense and the way defenses have coped with it most especially.

The power Carr successfully ran in the mid to late 90s with Mike DeBord as OC was SIGNFICANTLY different than anything that is closely resembling a power run game today. Generally, much more sophisticated today then then. So, hard to say that the Harbaughffense as it relates to the run game is anything similar in style to Carr/DeBord's stuff.

When I looked it up, I was surprised how many years Mike DeBord was with Carr as his OC. There was one small stint, I think it was when DeBord went to the NFL, where Terry Malone was OC that DeBord wasn't.

How many times have we seen criticism of M's run game under the late Carr regime and then, lately, Hoke's disaster of one. Those two periods were similar in that off tackle left or some variant of that was about it and you could definitely characterize these two run games with the meme, "I'm going to tell you what we're going to do and you have to beat it and there is a good chance you won't because this is Michigan ferGod'ssake." Meanwhile, the rest of CFB was innovating and making improvements in their offenses. M stayed static with this bullshit.

Anyway, although I don't think its a slam dunk yet in terms of efficiency, Harbaugh's run game is vastly different than anything DeBord ran and does a good job of taking into account the athleticism (wide ranging term) that has emerged in CFB defenses of today. When you've got a HC coming out of the NFL where there is talent parity all around, I'd expect innovative approaches to the run game. Couple that with his experience at Stanford, I'd say M's run game going forward is going to be BETTER than anything we saw in the Carr/Debord days and massively better than Hokeorges-nuss ever produced.

[hack]

DeBord was HC at CMU for three years, where he sucked. Then Carr let him back in.

[iam416]

Buchanan:

Limited possessions=closer games. The point was that HARBAUGH!!!! will have close games in the 4th like Carr. Hell, last week was only 20-7 going into the 4th....and it should have only be 13-7 with a competent snap from the Beav long snapper.

I can tell you're just dying to shed your "wait and see" nonsense -- because we all know you're not -- and go all in on HARBAUGH!!!! It must be so hard for you to temper your enthusiasm :-)

[hack]

I love this, from http://genuinelysarcastic.blogspot.com. It's more fun than anything else, but the in-game progression is relevant to the discussion:

Michigan rumors still persisted as the Orange Bowl unfolded that night of January 3rd, which progressed into full-blown football porn for Michigan fans. Luck threw a touchdown pass to a tight end, and Stanford's power run game ripped off a 60-yard touchdown run, but it was just 13-12 Stanford at halftime against Virginia Tech. The second half turned into an all-out bloodbath, though. The holes for Stanford's running backs got bigger; the time Luck had to throw grew longer. Stanford's offensive line gradually reduced Virginia Tech's defensive resistance to nothing, asserting the type of soul-crushing dominance Michigan fans fantasize about ... Luck faked the handoff and threw a 38 yard touchdown to a wide open Coby Fleener; it was the third touchdown pass to Fleener since the 5:49 mark of the third quarter; the other two came from 41 and 58 yards away; the 41-yarder coming on an identical playaction fake from a goal line formation 40 yards away, leaving Fleener embarrassingly wide open downfield because Stanford's rushing attack was so feared that Virginia Tech had no choice but to sell out on it. Stanford slaughtered Virginia Tech, 40-12. They out-rushed the Hokies 247-66, averaging an even 8.0 yards per carry...

[Jeff Buchanan]

Buchanan:

Limited possessions=closer games. The point was that HARBAUGH!!!! will have close games in the 4th like Carr. Hell, last week was only 20-7 going into the 4th....and it should have only be 13-7 with a competent snap from the Beav long snapper.

I can tell you're just dying to shed your "wait and see" nonsense -- because we all know you're not -- and go all in on HARBAUGH!!!! It must be so hard for you to temper your enthusiasm :-)

Well, yes ......

My guess is that once this thing (Harbaughffense) gets rolling, the games are not going to be that close. And yes, the Beavs were still in it until that ill fated snap gaff.

My view is that something JH understands is that todays' CFB offenses can score. In general, though, there's no disputing your lead in simple formula: Limited Possessions = Closer Games.

But what if M scores on every one of those possessions or close to it, and the other guy running up-tempo Air Raid doesn't. It happens. As you note, you better be able to run power when you need to. There's a mesh point somewhere there where FEI surpasses your simple math ..... at least I think it does as I'm a shitty statistician.

Right now M is 36th in FEI rankings and well back from the leaders but it's really too early to use that as a meaningful measure of Harbaughffense. That's because up until mid-season, I think it is, the FEI rankings still take into account the trajectory of the 2014 season, which, we know, during which, M sucked.

I'm not worried about Harbaughffense just yet ..... as long as the trajectory keeps trending upward over the season even if there are some dips.

[iam416]

But what if M scores on every one of those possessions or close to it, and the other guy running up-tempo Air Raid doesn't.

What if the neanderthal offense doesn't score every possession has some three and outs and the uptempo guys get it going? I saw that once...HARBAUGH!!! had Oregon down 21-3 before Oregon dropped a FORTY-NINE to 10 run on them to win 52-31. That was HARBAUGH!!!!'s best Stanford team by far. Trounced and humiliated by a true spread team. The next season, without HARBAUGH!!! but still with Luck, Oregon scored 53 in winning 53-30. So, ummm, yeah.

Personally, I think the more meaningful game re M was USU-Utah where a totally mediocre Utah State team did exactly what M did against Utah. But, hey, that's just me. It's clear HARBAUGH!!!!! is trending way up after throttling the might Beavs. Can't wait to read about how dominant and superior the Harbaughffense is it destroys the formidable Rebs.

[hack]

Michigan would probably like to score faster than it has. They want to own ToP in the fourth quarter, but not necessarily before it, it seems. Fisch said the other day to mgoblog that they want 50/50 run/pass until the fourth and then 80/20. Michigan will score faster when the deep ball doesn't have to be a Rudock-Chesson connection.

[iam416]

That sort of falls into the "of course" category. Of course they want to score faster. And of course they want 80/20 in the 4th -- it means they're winning!

[hack]

I think some ``of course'' may be necessary here. There's some genuine wondering about what this offense wants to be, which is normal at such early stages.