The Rest of College Football

[CGVT]

Man, there have been some fun bowl games to watch over the last two days.

[Cody_Russell]

Quality bowl day for sure. Next couple of days looks entertaining for bowl games.

Texas being favored by 3 is one spread that confused me… especially with Bijan out. Totally would have gone with Washington/ Penix Jr.!
Now that I say this, here comes the jinx/ Texas comeback.

[iam416]

Heading into today's games, M remains at -7' -- which is an absolute steal. However, not to be undone, Georgia is DOWN to -6. Honestly, if I had $25,000 laying around as if I was some bigshot fuck-you-all-hospital-administrator I would have it equally split on these two games. I don't know which one I like better. They're both 3+ score games valued at 1 score lines. It'd take a whole fuckton of wrong for them to go south.

[froot loops]

Its the Big Ten's year, I think the class of the Big Ten beats Georgia and Michigan squeaks by TCU. So take the points in both games.

[iam416]

You're a fucking idiot.

I've never been less excited for a "big" game. Like, I knew they were going to lose to LSU in 2007, but I thought, maybe there's a chance. Tonight, I don't even think that.

[iam416]

The Ohio State-Georgia line is interesting and goes to what I've talked about in the past. Georgia is roughly a 65/35 betting favorite and the line is dropping. This suggests, rather strongly, that Vegas does not want to leave themselves exposed to Ohio State +7'. The reason, almost ceraintly, is that there models and bookmakers probably have this game closer to 3. They don't have to worry about late Ohio State money at 6, but at 7' that's dangerous.

The M-TCU line is sort of just following conventional trends. Vegas thinks M is better by about 9, but the betting has it down to around 7.5 -- but we're not playing with major number shifts. I think it'd be far more likely to go up to 9.5 than drop to 7 or, for sure, 6.5.

Anyway, the models fear Ohio State. Human beings with actual eyes that have watched virtually all 48 quarters of their bullshit most definitely do not.

[iam416]

On Oddsshark, it says the money is at 75/25 for Georgia, but their model says Ohio State 41-39. That's really the tension at play. (For M-TCU, it says 41-33 -- right on the number).

It really fascinates me. The models smooth out the results. They take UGA-Tennessee and other dominant showings but also have UGA-Missouri and the like. Ohio State's shitshows are smoothed out by dominating performanes against mediocre B10 teams. But human beings tend toward like on like. When Georgia has played really good teams they've assjacked them. When Ohio State has played even good teams it's been a struggle. So it's incumbent on humans to filter out the shit that matters and doesn't.

So I have both games at 21+. TCU is not stopping M's offense. At all. JJ would have to be truly awful for M to lose this game. I don't think TCU will do all that much on offense, so I have it roughly 45-20.

Ohio State is not stopping Georgia. Ain't gonna happen. Ohio State's only chance is to outscome them, and that's somewhere in the 5% range. I have Georgia at about 45-24. It could probably be worse, but Kirby sort of throttles the game down once he gets a big lead. It'll be like Georgia assraping of M last year. Completely over roughly 20 minutes in.

[AlabamAlum]

Ohio State needs to totally abandon the run and go controlled mid-range slants, crosses, and flats until Georgia abandons stopping the run and sells out to stop the midrange pass. Then, run. Wash, rinse, repeat.

See Alabama’s assjacking of Georgia in the SECCG last year.

We had the same plan in the national championship game but we lost Metchie and JaMo to injuries and that plan went out the window.

This is the way.

[iam416]

Money is still coming in on Georgia and now it’s down to 5.5. I’d love to know what Vegas sees in this game because I don’t get it.

[lineygoblue]

Maybe Vegas doesn't think that Georgia is as big and bad as they were last year.

[iam416]

Well, they aren’t. And even that team wasn’t close to the two previous champs. It’s more that they like Ohio State way more than they should.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, they aren’t. And even that team wasn’t close to the two previous champs. It’s more that they like Ohio State way more than they should.

........ or you're a moron. Favor the former.

My first reaction to a couple of your betting posts was you have a recency bias associated with osu's loss to M that has a strong negative effect on your perceptions of the buckeyes. But, I've been aboard with your concerns while others here call it sandbagging. I think the Vegas models predict a closer game than you imagine is possible. I think osu will lose but the bucks won't get boat raced. For osu to keep it close into the 4th, stroud can't fold under pressure. He had trouble with his second reads v. M's D. He needs to make those reads and throw dimes to the open man. He can do that but has to push through any early problems he has - keep working the play as it was drawn up.

[Dr. Strangelove]

lol @ USC, Riley, and Caleb Williams

[Cody_Russell]

Wow, Tulane! Great comeback.
I only watched the 4th quarter… good timing. Crazy finish to the game.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Same ol USC. Same ol Riley.