The Rest of College Football

[iam416]

No, but Vegas isn't in the business of setting bad lines. Leaves them exposed. It's a canard that they just want 50/50. What they hope for is to set an accurate line that generates 50/50, but they'd rather ride with a good line and get leveraged than leave themselves exposed to last second shark plays.

What those numbers tell me is that that they think USC and TCU functionally have zero chance and that Ohio State is much more of a threat. It actually accords with their lines. They still have M/OSU as an even game. They give M roughly 2x better chance of winning the CFP. Which accords with their belief that OSU is probably about 50% to make the playoff.

Anyway, it's interesting to me because I bet. But the numbers actually make sense with how Vegas views CFB. Georgia. Then M/OSU (only 1 of whom will get in) and then 2 cannon fodder teams.

[Jeff Buchanan]

What astounds me re CFB at the moment is that Ohio State is currently a much better bet to win the CFB than EITHER TCU or USC. And keep in mind, Ohio State specifically needs USC to lose AND they'd have to beat Georgia and HARBAUGH!!!! And there's zero fucking chance of either one of those things happening, let alone BOTH. JFC.

And, yet, Vegas still very much thinks OSU has a way better chance than TCU or USC. Hell M is only twice as likely according to the odds. Georgia, of course, is over 60% per implied odds.

I was looking at that yesterday trying to see what happened to M's odds of winning the BTCCG and then winning the NC with Corum's injury. I could not find anything suggesting that odds changed. I don't follow betting odds that closely but I did read that the books seem to have a specific time frame that they publish new odds and my search was ooutside of it. talent?

But, yeah, I was surprised at osu's odds to win the CFP. It suggests that M's win was a one-off and that osu will fix whatever problems appeared in The Game. mgo's UFR Offense for The Game was unsurprisingly very harsh on the claims by osu sports writers that were advancing the "if not for five plays" line and arguing osu played well by several objective measures and "dominated.".

Alex Drain who does these articles said that osu's problems go well beyond jim knowles ill-timed installation of his crazy Cover Zero approach to M's run game arguing that known issues with osu's Ss as well as CBs and to alesser extend LBs appeared v. M and some of that had to do with Weiss/Moore out coaching both knowles and day.

[Cody_Russell]

Well, there’s roughly a 50-50 shot of Ohio State making the playoff. If they make it in, I’ve heard some people say they’re the one team that can beat Georgia. Ohio State’s finesse style and deep ball passing ability could be Georgia’s one weakness. I’d still pick Georgia, but Vegas probably has this potential matchup closer than the other possibilities in the semi final.

USC vs Utah tonight. Toss up game. If Utah wins, Ohio State is in.

TCU vs Kansas State tomorrow. Toss up game. I’ve heard people suggest TCU needs to be blown out in order for TCU to miss the playoff. That wasn’t my assumption early in the week. If so, TCU is likely to be safe.

[Mike]

TCU *should* be safe. I think it would take a blowout loss to move them onto the bubble.

Tonight’s game is the determining factor for OSU. They’ll move up one spot to replace a 2-loss USC should Utah win.

[klondike]

I was looking at that yesterday trying to see what happened to M's odds of winning the BTCCG and then winning the NC with Corum's injury. I could not find anything suggesting that odds changed. I don't follow betting odds that closely but I did read that the books seem to have a specific time frame that they publish new odds and my search was ooutside of it. talent?

But, yeah, I was surprised at osu's odds to win the CFP. It suggests that M's win was a one-off and that osu will fix whatever problems appeared in The Game. mgo's UFR Offense for The Game was unsurprisingly very harsh on the claims by osu sports writers that were advancing the "if not for five plays" line and arguing osu played well by several objective measures and "dominated.".

Alex Drain who does these articles said that osu's problems go well beyond jim knowles ill-timed installation of his crazy Cover Zero approach to M's run game arguing that known issues with osu's Ss as well as CBs and to alesser extend LBs appeared v. M and some of that had to do with Weiss/Moore out coaching both knowles and day.

Weren't they favored by 9 the first time around. Now they get guys back an UM loses, still, their best player. OSU should be favored and will be by game time.

[Cody_Russell]

Is everyone rooting for USC tonight? (Sorry, excluding all of the Ohio State fans of course 😉)

Think I am …
Locks in a semi-final matchup of TCU or USC for M. Assuming Georgia and M win on Saturday.

I know the idea of a M vs Ohio State national championship game sounds interesting. Winner of that game would have bragging rights for a long time… Still, it’s probably safer for M to have Ohio State knocked out of contention. Almost becomes a sure thing with USC winning tonight.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I'm pulling for the Utes! I want mayhem! And I hate USC.

[AlabamAlum]

I’m pulling for KState, Utah, Purdue, and LSU. I’m an agent of chaos.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Chaos is your middle name...

...no my first name ain't baby...it's Janet....Miss Jackson if yer nasty...

[CGVT]

Straight chalk, baby!

[WingsFan]

I think Alabama would be #5 right now if the officials let that last strip-sack and fumble be called.

The ball fell for an easy scoop and score TD. 52 points would have really looked even worse for osu

[Jeff Buchanan]

Neither USC or Utah know how to play defense. Both teams score on their first posessions. USC tightened up in the RZ. Should be an entertaining game if you like shootouts.

7-3 USC.

[Cody_Russell]

Yup. Similar start to the first USC vs Utah game. Defenses looking helpless.

If this follows the same trajectory, USC’s defense will forget to cover the awesome Utah TE Dalton Kincaid.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Utah sucks.

Shit through a goose.

USC 14-3

buckeyes are crying.

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU