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I've paid attention. I think the CFP Committee is mostly flakey. Since 2016, they've come up with some bewildering rankings although they do seem to get things right on their final one - the only one that matters. I think they've gone both ways on the 2 teams from one conference in the final CFP ranking question and have avoided rematches of CCGs.
We have two posters here offering "absolutely certain" outcomes - UGA is in win or lose to Alabama. I'll acknowledge that's a possibility but so is 12-1 UGA dropping to fifth with oSu, also at 12-1 taking the 4th spot. Looks like this:
M
Alabama
Cinci
oSu
UGA
ND
Losses at the end of the season prompt steep drops unlike those that happen after the first CFP rankings appear in October. I'd offer UGA has to win the SEC CCG to grab a CFP slot for that reason and the aesthetics that the CFP Committee has to deal with if they put 2 SEC teams in and particularly UGA that lost it's mot important game of the season. Alabama also has to win to stay in contention. If they lose and all the other contenders win, ND probably gets in
First, if UAT beats Georgia there is virtually zero way they're not #1.
Second, Georgia is in. Period.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
Here's an idea...wait until Saturday and see WTF happens...and for now...STFU...
Seconded.
Talent, the lawyer that he is, wants the last word 😂
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
Iffen UAT pushes UGA to the wire they will be in at the expense of the B12 Champ. Cincy is in with a win. Don't care if it's by a point or 100. M ain't losing to Iowa. I think there are three scenarios likely...
IF UAT upsets UGA (not very likely)
1. UAT 2. UGA 3. M 4. Cincy
IF UAT pushes UGA (somewhat likely)
1. UGA 2. M 3. UAT 4. Cincy (Bama at 3 to eliminate a rematch 1st round)
IF UGA steamrolls UGA (very likely)
1. UGA 2. M 3. Cincy 4. B12 Champ
I firmly believe a 2 loss SEC runner up that pushed the clear #1 team in the CCG is in over a mediocre B12 Champ. If OU was that Conf Champ it might be different. Baylor and OKST need UGA to ROLL (pun intended).
Georgia is in even with a loss.. They are locked in even with an ugly loss...
Then you've M, Bama, Cincy and Oklahoma State fighting for 3 spots; one of those teams is out though I've assumed Georgia will beat Bama. Notre Dame benefits from any of the above losing...
Baylor, Oregon, Iowa are NOT out of it with wins in their conference championships, the committee has so far put a ton of value in conference champions, putting weak 2-loss conference champions in favor or 1-loss teams who lose or didn't make their CCG... Can't see ACC champion Pitt or WF getting a bid, by far the weakest conference champ...
Chaos (Cincy losing, M losing, Oklahoma State losing) would leave a field of Georgia, Notre Dame then a ton of 2-loss conference champs: Iowa, Baylor, Oregon fighting for 2 spots.
-
So:
Georgia, M, Cincy, Oklahoma State, Bama control their own destiny... Notre Dame just needs a lil help... Baylor, Iowa, Oregon need to win and some chaos.
1. Georgia. Can Kirby Smart finally defeat his own personal Darth Vader? A former Saban assistant finally managed the feat earlier this year, and that was Jimbo Fisher with a backup QB. So, at first glance, with Georgia's dominance and Alabama's struggles, this looks like a potential rout. But I don't know that Georgia's seen either an offense that can throw the ball this well or a defense with this number of playmakers. The only time Georgia's faced anybody with this much overall talent was week one, and they needed a defensive touchdown to beat Clemson 10-3. That Clemson defense finished the regular season #9 in total defense. This Alabama team is currently #7. So, I'd be a little surprised if Georgia lost this one, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they have to fight like hell to win it.
2. Alabama. It's easy to look at Alabama's bizarrely anemic offense against Auburn and drop them for a poor performance. I prefer to think Alabama almost got caught in a rivalry game against an opponent that played just about as well as it could have that day, then found a way to win. It was the Iron Bowl. Winning the Iron Bowl should not get a team penalized. So, they're here for another week, and they get a chance to dispel all the negativity surrounding them with a rare opportunity-- Nick Saban gets a week to prepare his team for a championship game as an underdog. Don't discount this. Even with Alabama's offensive line troubles, it's one thing to say this team ought to be counted out. It's another thing altogether to actually beat them. I'm guessing this game is closer than expected, but I don't think that keeps a two-loss Alabama team in the playoff. Prediction: Georgia 28, Alabama 23.
3. Michigan. This week, the Michigan Wolverines are the most highly-ranked they've been since the first week of November, 2016, when they were #2 in the AP poll. Who knocked them down a bit from that ranking then? We all remember, don't we? It was Iowa. That was a night game at Kinnick, not a Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis, but still, the Hawkeyes are not the opponent you necessarily want to see in a must-win situation. Just as we saw the Ohio State team that lost at the line of scrimmage to Oregon suddenly re-appear in the Big House, there's still a Michigan team that needed some good luck on late fumbles to beat Rutgers and Nebraska out there somewhere. Iowa can beat that Michigan team. I'm guessing Michigan can't dial up the kind of performance that felled the Buckeyes for a second straight week, but plays clean enough to get them through to the playoff. Prediction: Michigan 27, Iowa 19.
4. Cincinnati. The Bearcats preyed on the East Carolina Pirates' terrible placekicking to get a bigger win than they perhaps deserved, but in any case, they did what they were supposed to do, and got out of Dowdy-Ficklen with their perfect season intact. Now comes an AAC championship game at home against a Houston team that's won 11 straight since an opening-week loss to Texas Tech. Is a win here going to be enough to keep them in the playoffs? I think so, and I think they get it. Is a win here going to be enough for them to keep their coach? That I don't know-- I suspect Luke Fickell is going to have a hard time turning down the Notre Dame job. But for now, the Bearcats' magical ride continues. Prediction: Cincinnati 34, Houston 24.
5. Oklahoma State. The Cowboys move up after winning a Bedlam thriller, as they managed to shut out Oklahoma's offense in the second half. This is a team I wouldn't want to have to play in a playoff-- they rush the passer brilliantly(ask Oklahoma), they protect their QB very well, and they really tackle well. I'd imagine there'll be quite a few programs trying to figure out how to poach Cowboy DC Jim Knowles this offseason. I think they get the win this week, and they get into the playoff. Would they pass Cincinnati in the rankings? I'm thinking they will.
6. Notre Dame. For once in its storied history, Notre Dame has been a victim of bad luck this year. You don't schedule like this expecting Florida State and USC to finish below .500, or that preseason top fifteen Wisconsin and UNC teams will largely flop. ND's bad luck with its opposition is largely a result of the Irish's ACC scheduling agreement-- not only did they play five games against the worst(or second-worst, depending on how you're figuring it) Power Five league, they didn't even manage a game against one of the four best teams in that league. And now, their head coach is gone. On the other hand, they've been much improved against the opposition they've played in the second half of the season. This is the toughest team to evaluate in the top ten. They might be a top-five team on the field now, but the record on its own merits barely gets them on this list. My guess is they're heading to the Fiesta Bowl, and we'll learn more then.
7. Ohio State. This spot may be a bit harsh on the Buckeyes-- you can make a pretty good argument that even with two losses, Ohio State deserves to be ranked ahead of Notre Dame. Even in a losing performance, this team still hung nearly 500 yards on Michigan on the road, and their all-world WRs certainly did what they could to win The Game. I'd expect this team to be heavy favorites to win the Rose Bowl, if Michigan manages to get to the CFP, and it is a sign of the heights this program has reached that a Rose Bowl would be a disappointment. As for next year? They'll be back. There's just too much talent on that roster for this program to have entered some early stage of decline. So, let's not make too much of last Saturday, as enjoyable as it was.
8. Ole Miss. It's pretty simple for the Rebels-- they're in the Sugar Bowl if Georgia and Alabama make the playoff, and they're likely in the Peach Bowl if Alabama falls out of the top four. With the opening at Oklahoma, and a potential opening at Miami, can Ole Miss keep Lane Kiffin? A few years ago, I wouldn't have thought an FBS program ought to make a concerted effort to keep Lane Kiffin as its head coach, but these are strange days we live in. If Miami doesn't land him, I'm guessing he stays, but he might have a fight on his hands to keep his OC, Jeff Lebby.
9. Baylor. I still haven't seen any reports that indicate Gerry Bohanon will be back from the injury he suffered against K-State, which I suppose means he's a game-time decision in the Big XII championship. Hamstring injuries are tricky beasts, and without Bohanon at full strength, I don't see much chance the Bears get enough done against Oklahoma State's defense. They didn't get much done the first time-- they only gained 280 yards of offense in Stillwater, despite getting three extra possessions off turnovers. My guess is Bohanon will go, but he'll be limited, and oSu's defense carries the Pokes to a conference championship and the playoff. Prediction: Oklahoma State 27, Baylor 13.
10. Oregon. According to ESPN's SP+ rankings, the #10 team in the country right now is...7-5 Tennessee, which strikes me as a little odd. That formula ranks Oregon at #19, which may actually be close to accurate once this weekend is done, as Oregon has to be searching for a reason this game against Utah goes any differently than the first one did. I can't think of one, besides a remarkable change in competitive luck. I suppose that's possible. The Ducks are coming off a confidence-restoring win in the formerly-titled Civil War, but even in that one, their defense wasn't that great, and they're going to have a tough time winning at the line of scrimmage against the Utes. Prediction: Utah 34, Oregon 20.
Next Ten: Oklahoma, Michigan State, BYU, Iowa, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Utah, N.C. State, San Diego State, Houston
Georgia is in even with a loss.. They are locked in even with an ugly loss...
B....
the committee has so far put a ton of value in conference champions, putting weak 2-loss conference champions in favor or 1-loss teams who lose or didn't make their CCG.
If I'm reading your post correctly, if B is true, A is false. In B, you're defining a pathway for a 1 - loss Big 12 (faux) conference champion, oSu to get in over UGA , a one loss SEC CCG loser. It's pretty much what I'm saying happens - UGA drops to 5 if they lose to Alabama in the SEC CCG.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
Georgia is in regardless of a loss, I do think Bama has a much better chance than most think. Georgia's schedule is quite bad for being in the SEC though they've dominated every game on that weak schedule.
Anything else your reading into it is your wishful thinking.
Got it. I'd call my "reading" as a rational possibility not wishful thinking. Moreover, I don't have a position on the potential UGA/M match-up should it materialize so that's not behind my thinking they could drop out with a loss to Alabama so M doesn't have to face them enroute to an NC game.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
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