The Rest of College Football

[iam416]

The LSU team may be a shade better than the UAT team, but both are better than this year's Georgia team -- by a comfortable margin (IMO). That was all I said.

[Jeff Buchanan]

....... I'd add, if M dominates Iowa and Alabama looks unimpressive in a win over UGA, what prevents M from moving up from their current #2 to #1. Alabama would conceivably stay at #3 with a weak win v. UGA. #1 plays #4 (whoever that ends up being - oSu?) and #2 (Cinci?) plays #3.

My point is, nothing is certain. We will know the result of the SEC Championship game in ATL before the BT CCG starts.

[iam416]

You know, when I was in college and up late debating whatever issue, someone would always invariably resort to some version of the uncertainty principle. How can we possibly KNOW that's true? Or some such bullshit. I always excoriated that argument as, essentially, tapping out. You can make the same argument about the sun coming up in the East tomorrow -- you don't KNOW, for certain, that it will. So, all you're doing is stating the fucking obvious and passing it off as some sort of counterpoint. Or, so my argument would go.

It's true that I don't know, for sure, that UAT would be #1 if they beat Georgia. But I'd put it at 99% confidence level. There is literally no win over Georiga where UAT would "look unimpressive" -- at least no realistic version of that win. I guess, in theory, UAT could win the turnover battle by 6, get a couple hugely favorable and awful calls and win by 1 point or something. Again, ANYTHING is possible which makes the whole "we don't know for certain" line so fucking stupid.

If UAT beats Georgia they will be #1. I'll take any and all betting action on that statement. Any and all.

[THE_WIZARD_]

UGA is playing Arizona this weekend?

[Mike]

The SEC winner will most certainly be the #1 seed and rightfully so.

The best path to a winnable semi-final game for Michigan is for Georgia to beat Alabama. Period.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The SEC winner will most certainly be the #1 seed and rightfully so.

The best path to a winnable semi-final game for Michigan is for Georgia to beat Alabama. Period.

I see other paths as described above. The ordering of the CFP berths is not a slam dunk, "period" kind of outcome. I don't disagree with you that the outcome you describe is one path.

So, all you're doing is stating the fucking obvious and passing it off as some sort of counterpoint. Or, so my argument would go.

Easy there, Hoss.......... if my post was a counterpoint, I would have said so. Like my post in response to Mike's, my post in response to your post was an "I'd add" what I offered for consideration, namely Alabama wins but looks like shit doing so and M crushes Iowa.

The CFP committee makes it's ordering determination on a much more subjective basis than an objective one. You boys are offering you opinions on CFP berth ordering as fact ...... it's gonna happen as in "99% confidence level" or "period." I don't wager so, don't ask but I'm much less confident in how the CFP berthing order will be than you two seem to be.

[iam416]

You seem to think that a win over Georgia...a WIN over GEORGIA... can realistically be UNIMPRESSIVE or, even better, that UAT could "LOOK LIKE SHIT" in WINNING against GEORGIA.

That's idiocy, IMO.

[THE_WIZARD_]

UAT is not beating UGA.

The only potential upset I see this weekend is Houston over Cincy possibly...if that happens Bama could be in with a close loss to UGA...UGA, HARBAUGH!!!, B12 CHAMP, BAMMER.

FUCK NOTRE DAME.

[THE_WIZARD_]

By close loss to UGA...if it's still up for grabs in the 4th quarter and a score or less...I think Bammer gets in. If they get housed...they are out obviously.

[Cody_Russell]

Saturday games that matter and spread:

12pm -
#9 Baylor vs #5 Oklahoma State. OKST -5.5

4pm -
#1 Georgia vs #3 Alabama. UGA -6.5
#21 Houston vs #4 Cincinnati. CIN -10.5

8pm -
#2 Michigan vs #13 Iowa. M -10.5

What's your Playoff field if?
- Baylor beats OKST.
- Georgia DESTROYS Bama.
- Houston beats Cinci.
- Iowa beats M.

Chaos!!!!
1. Georgia 2. Notre Dame 3. Baylor 4. Bama, Mich, or OSU? Chaos!!!

[Jeff Buchanan]

What's your Playoff field if?
- Baylor beats OKST.
- Georgia DESTROYS Bama.
- Houston beats Cinci.
- Iowa beats M.

I'd think Baylor could win but oSu is outside the current top 4 so, meh. Georgia is not going to "Destroy" Alabama but they will probably win. That drops Alabama out of the CFP and opens the door for ND with a Baylor win over oSu or if oSu wins, they're in.

UGA
M
Cinci
ND or oSu

In the scenario I posted up thread:

M
Alabama
Cinci
ND or oSu

I have trouble imagining the the CFP Committee putting both Alabama and UGA in the CFP if Alabama beats UGA.

[Da Geezer]

This is a play-in game for Alabama. After the squeaker at Auburn Bama has to win to get in. If they get destroyed by Georgia, Bama is out. Cinci is out with a loss to Houston. Never should have been in contention anyway. Baylor is not one of the top 4 teams in the nation. ND plays no conference championship game.

1. Georgia 2. ND 3. OKST (with a win) 4. Michigan

[Mike]

I have trouble imagining the the CFP Committee putting both Alabama and UGA in the CFP if Alabama beats UGA.

Georgia will absolutely be in at 12-1 with their only loss to (then #3) Alabama. As we sit here right now, Georgia is in. They are a UNANIMOUS #1 in all the polls. Losing to Alabama won’t drop them to 5th or more.

This is why we need them to beat Alabama. If they lose, they will be in the 2/3 game because the committee isn’t going to have a rematch in the semifinal.

[iam416]

Georgia will absolutely be in at 12-1 with their only loss to (then #3) Alabama

That is an ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY.

I realize M has been involved in the CFP to date, but I assumed Buchanan paid at least SOME attention to what the CFP does.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I've paid attention. I think the CFP Committee is mostly flakey. Since 2016, they've come up with some bewildering rankings although they do seem to get things right on their final one - the only one that matters. I think they've gone both ways on the 2 teams from one conference in the final CFP ranking question and have avoided rematches of CCGs.

We have two posters here offering "absolutely certain" outcomes - UGA is in win or lose to Alabama. I'll acknowledge that's a possibility but so is 12-1 UGA dropping to fifth with oSu, also at 12-1 taking the 4th spot. Looks like this:

M
Alabama
Cinci
oSu

UGA
ND

Losses at the end of the season prompt steep drops unlike those that happen after the first CFP rankings appear in October. I'd offer UGA has to win the SEC CCG to grab a CFP slot for that reason and the aesthetics that the CFP Committee has to deal with if they put 2 SEC teams in and particularly UGA that lost it's mot important game of the season. Alabama also has to win to stay in contention. If they lose and all the other contenders win, ND probably gets in