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The Top Ten(not the stupid CFP ranking...this is a different kind of stupid)
1. Georgia. Here's the thing about Georgia right now...nobody's managed to keep from getting pulverized by their defensive front seven, and it's possible nobody will. But if a team could max-protect all day and manage to keep its offense on the field against this team, I'm not sure Georgia's offense right now could keep up in a shootout. It may be the only criticism of them you can make at the moment, but Georgia's managing to win lopsided games without really lighting things up offensively. They're not Iowa, but it'd be interesting to see how they'd hold up against a team that survives up front well enough to test their secondary.
2. Oklahoma. Objection #1 to the initial CFP rankings-- OU is too low. I get that they've played to the level of their competition far too often, but 9-0 is 9-0, and they're coming off one of their more complete performances of the season against Texas Tech. I can't see ranking an unbeaten Oklahoma below a once-beaten Oregon team that's also played to the level of its competition, or a one-loss Michigan team that's yet to defeat a ranked team. This may be too high for them, I'll grant, but I think this is closer to right than #8 is. Now that I've said all this, of course, they'll lose at Baylor in a couple of weeks.
3. Alabama. The Crimson Tide continue their four-game home stand with what figures to be the least compelling Alabama-LSU game in years. They shouldn't face a serious challenge until the Iron Bowl. They're the one team Georgia might face before the playoff that has a chance to spread them out and attack them down the field. It would really make the playoff committee's job hard if Alabama manages to knock off Georgia in the SEC title game. I would think a 12-1 Georgia team would have done enough to get in, but the way this season is going, there could be a logjam for the final two teams in that instance. The only real knock I have against this team right now is their mediocre pass defense, but again, nobody on their schedule until Auburn ought to be able to exploit it all that much.
4. Cincinnati. Objection #2 to the initial CFP rankings-- Cincinnati is too low. They've come out flat the last couple of weeks and still managed to come away with road conference wins, and if form holds, they'll finish out their season with games against SMU and Houston. They're going to have to hope Notre Dame's current form holds, too, and that looks like a good bet right now, as the Irish stand a very good chance at finishing 11-1. If that happens, it's going to be awfully hard keeping this team out of the playoff.
5. Oregon. Like Oklahoma, Oregon comes off a game in which it finally saw off an opponent in convincing fashion. The Ducks' passing game is coming together, and they're getting some of their injured personnel back for the stretch run. The stretch run itself doesn't look that daunting-- at Washington, Washington State, at Utah, and then Oregon State-- but the Pac-12's competitive balance(or general ineptitude, if you prefer) means at least one of the games is going to be close. I'm guessing it's the trip to Utah.
6. Ohio State. For the first time since C.J. Stroud returned from injury, Ohio State looked vulnerable. Of course, they were playing by far the best team they've seen in the last month or so in Penn State. The Nittany Lions give the Buckeyes a game, at least recently, but they've lost nine of the last ten in this series, which is just another indication of how dominant the Buckeyes have been in Big Ten play over the last two decades. They shouldn't have much trouble at Nebraska this week, though the Huskers seem to have mastered the art of losing close, but how are they going to manage Michigan State and Michigan back-to-back to end the season? It's going to be difficult to dial up two A-game performances in a row, and they might have to play that well to get to the Big Ten championship game.
7. Michigan State. I'll just come out and say it-- I hate this ranking this week for this team. They deserved to move up after the come-from-behind takedown of Michigan. But, unfortunately for the Spartans here, I had nowhere else to put them, as no one ahead of them lost, and as always, I try very hard not to penalize teams that win in this ranking. That does result in the occasional injustice, though, and here is one. It's a short-term one, though, because November always sorts these things out. Michigan State gets a tricky road trip to Purdue this week, then a home game against Maryland, and then the huge trip to Columbus before finishing at home against Penn State. To be more generous to the Spartans, I'll say this-- there are legitimate playoff contenders right now, and then there are a bunch of teams that are going to need some help. The Spartans don't need any help.
8. Michigan. On the one hand, Michigan missed a huge opportunity in East Lansing. On the other, with the game being as competitive as it was and with so many teams ranked near them losing last week, I can't drop them for that performance. So, at least this week, Michigan is first among the second tier. Their red-zone struggles finally caught up to them against the Spartans, as did their inability to re-establish the line of scrimmage at the defensive tackle position. Also, they got a large dose of rotten competitive luck, but sometimes that's just a function of playing a better team. Michigan can still have an excellent year, but they're going to have to find a way to put this loss in the rear-view mirror quickly.
9. Notre Dame. Here's Notre Dame's remaining schedule-- Navy, at Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Stanford. That's three losing teams and a Virginia team that is almost entirely one-dimensional(although that one dimenson, their passing game, can be rather good). I don't see the Irish losing to any of these teams. It's kind of remarkable that Notre Dame could go 11-1 against this schedule and not be in the running for a playoff spot, but this schedule gave them only one shot at a marquee win, and they blew that shot on their own field.
10. Wake Forest. It is perhaps more realistic to say that the ACC simply doesn't have a top ten team this year, but when you've reached November undefeated in a Power Five conference, you deserve a little benefit of the doubt, at least. Wake Forest is a team that doesn't beat itself and does a little bit of everything well, and that goes a long way in the ACC. I tend to think their run gets upended sometime in the next three weeks, as they play at North Carolina, at home against N.C. State, and then at Clemson. But given how erratic those teams have been, I have to admit it's at least possible Wake reaches the ACC championship game 12-0.
Next Ten: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, BYU, Kentucky, Houston, UTSA, Coastal Carolina
1. Georgia. Here's the thing about Georgia right now...nobody's managed to keep from getting pulverized by their defensive front seven, and it's possible nobody will. But if a team could max-protect all day and manage to keep its offense on the field against this team, I'm not sure Georgia's offense right now could keep up in a shootout. It may be the only criticism of them you can make at the moment, but Georgia's managing to win lopsided games without really lighting things up offensively. They're not Iowa, but it'd be interesting to see how they'd hold up against a team that survives up front well enough to test their secondary.
2. Oklahoma. Objection #1 to the initial CFP rankings-- OU is too low. I get that they've played to the level of their competition far too often, but 9-0 is 9-0, and they're coming off one of their more complete performances of the season against Texas Tech. I can't see ranking an unbeaten Oklahoma below a once-beaten Oregon team that's also played to the level of its competition, or a one-loss Michigan team that's yet to defeat a ranked team. This may be too high for them, I'll grant, but I think this is closer to right than #8 is. Now that I've said all this, of course, they'll lose at Baylor in a couple of weeks.
3. Alabama. The Crimson Tide continue their four-game home stand with what figures to be the least compelling Alabama-LSU game in years. They shouldn't face a serious challenge until the Iron Bowl. They're the one team Georgia might face before the playoff that has a chance to spread them out and attack them down the field. It would really make the playoff committee's job hard if Alabama manages to knock off Georgia in the SEC title game. I would think a 12-1 Georgia team would have done enough to get in, but the way this season is going, there could be a logjam for the final two teams in that instance. The only real knock I have against this team right now is their mediocre pass defense, but again, nobody on their schedule until Auburn ought to be able to exploit it all that much.
4. Cincinnati. Objection #2 to the initial CFP rankings-- Cincinnati is too low. They've come out flat the last couple of weeks and still managed to come away with road conference wins, and if form holds, they'll finish out their season with games against SMU and Houston. They're going to have to hope Notre Dame's current form holds, too, and that looks like a good bet right now, as the Irish stand a very good chance at finishing 11-1. If that happens, it's going to be awfully hard keeping this team out of the playoff.
5. Oregon. Like Oklahoma, Oregon comes off a game in which it finally saw off an opponent in convincing fashion. The Ducks' passing game is coming together, and they're getting some of their injured personnel back for the stretch run. The stretch run itself doesn't look that daunting-- at Washington, Washington State, at Utah, and then Oregon State-- but the Pac-12's competitive balance(or general ineptitude, if you prefer) means at least one of the games is going to be close. I'm guessing it's the trip to Utah.
6. Ohio State. For the first time since C.J. Stroud returned from injury, Ohio State looked vulnerable. Of course, they were playing by far the best team they've seen in the last month or so in Penn State. The Nittany Lions give the Buckeyes a game, at least recently, but they've lost nine of the last ten in this series, which is just another indication of how dominant the Buckeyes have been in Big Ten play over the last two decades. They shouldn't have much trouble at Nebraska this week, though the Huskers seem to have mastered the art of losing close, but how are they going to manage Michigan State and Michigan back-to-back to end the season? It's going to be difficult to dial up two A-game performances in a row, and they might have to play that well to get to the Big Ten championship game.
7. Michigan State. I'll just come out and say it-- I hate this ranking this week for this team. They deserved to move up after the come-from-behind takedown of Michigan. But, unfortunately for the Spartans here, I had nowhere else to put them, as no one ahead of them lost, and as always, I try very hard not to penalize teams that win in this ranking. That does result in the occasional injustice, though, and here is one. It's a short-term one, though, because November always sorts these things out. Michigan State gets a tricky road trip to Purdue this week, then a home game against Maryland, and then the huge trip to Columbus before finishing at home against Penn State. To be more generous to the Spartans, I'll say this-- there are legitimate playoff contenders right now, and then there are a bunch of teams that are going to need some help. The Spartans don't need any help.
8. Michigan. On the one hand, Michigan missed a huge opportunity in East Lansing. On the other, with the game being as competitive as it was and with so many teams ranked near them losing last week, I can't drop them for that performance. So, at least this week, Michigan is first among the second tier. Their red-zone struggles finally caught up to them against the Spartans, as did their inability to re-establish the line of scrimmage at the defensive tackle position. Also, they got a large dose of rotten competitive luck, but sometimes that's just a function of playing a better team. Michigan can still have an excellent year, but they're going to have to find a way to put this loss in the rear-view mirror quickly.
9. Notre Dame. Here's Notre Dame's remaining schedule-- Navy, at Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Stanford. That's three losing teams and a Virginia team that is almost entirely one-dimensional(although that one dimenson, their passing game, can be rather good). I don't see the Irish losing to any of these teams. It's kind of remarkable that Notre Dame could go 11-1 against this schedule and not be in the running for a playoff spot, but this schedule gave them only one shot at a marquee win, and they blew that shot on their own field.
10. Wake Forest. It is perhaps more realistic to say that the ACC simply doesn't have a top ten team this year, but when you've reached November undefeated in a Power Five conference, you deserve a little benefit of the doubt, at least. Wake Forest is a team that doesn't beat itself and does a little bit of everything well, and that goes a long way in the ACC. I tend to think their run gets upended sometime in the next three weeks, as they play at North Carolina, at home against N.C. State, and then at Clemson. But given how erratic those teams have been, I have to admit it's at least possible Wake reaches the ACC championship game 12-0.
Next Ten: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, BYU, Kentucky, Houston, UTSA, Coastal Carolina
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