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I'll acknowledge you've been correct predicting M's wins when the consensus here was that they'd lose to Wisconsin and Nebraska on the road. So, I have to give some weight to your predictions going forward.
There are two factors, problem areas, however, that weigh against your prediction and I'll get to one that I think mitigates those problem areas:
M faces three teams with big-play passing threats in MSU, PSU and OSU. the first two on the road. Defending against those without committing 4-5 pass rushers is an M problem area. Cade McNamara's inability to run an effective RO and/or RPO offense, essential to M's run game, is the second problem area. There are probably multiple reasons for that but fundamentally that factor holds back M's offense from being explosive enough.
So far, M has faced teams that haven't been able to exploit these problem areas to deliver wins. Most of that is simply due to randomness, variance or plain dumb luck - something that hasn't happened in favor of Jim Harbaugh's teams to produce enough wins to claim championships since he arrived in Ann Arbor.
The factor that mitigates against these problem areas being the basis for losses is that this team, unlike any of Harbaugh's M teams in the past, wants to win. That quality is hard to quantify or define. It presents itself, among other ways, in big plays, another thing that has been missing despite a lot of talent on the roster. You'd like not to have to rely on that to win and JH has a unique capacity to play the game putting the team in loser situations by his lack of aggressiveness. There are plenty standout examples of that in his record. OTH, this season has demonstrated a shift towards a more aggressive game that breeds risk taking and the big plays that come along with that. It feeds on itself. M has that this season.
Whether or not that mitigating factor is a difference maker against MSU, PSU and OSU remains to be seen. My gut tells me M will lose 2 of those three games but I'm imbued with a history loosing football under Harbaugh, so take that for what its worth.
There are two factors, problem areas, however, that weigh against your prediction and I'll get to one that I think mitigates those problem areas:
M faces three teams with big-play passing threats in MSU, PSU and OSU. the first two on the road. Defending against those without committing 4-5 pass rushers is an M problem area. Cade McNamara's inability to run an effective RO and/or RPO offense, essential to M's run game, is the second problem area. There are probably multiple reasons for that but fundamentally that factor holds back M's offense from being explosive enough.
So far, M has faced teams that haven't been able to exploit these problem areas to deliver wins. Most of that is simply due to randomness, variance or plain dumb luck - something that hasn't happened in favor of Jim Harbaugh's teams to produce enough wins to claim championships since he arrived in Ann Arbor.
The factor that mitigates against these problem areas being the basis for losses is that this team, unlike any of Harbaugh's M teams in the past, wants to win. That quality is hard to quantify or define. It presents itself, among other ways, in big plays, another thing that has been missing despite a lot of talent on the roster. You'd like not to have to rely on that to win and JH has a unique capacity to play the game putting the team in loser situations by his lack of aggressiveness. There are plenty standout examples of that in his record. OTH, this season has demonstrated a shift towards a more aggressive game that breeds risk taking and the big plays that come along with that. It feeds on itself. M has that this season.
Whether or not that mitigating factor is a difference maker against MSU, PSU and OSU remains to be seen. My gut tells me M will lose 2 of those three games but I'm imbued with a history loosing football under Harbaugh, so take that for what its worth.
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